1. Nico Cloete 14 October 2015 UWC Institute of Post-School Studies

2. Presentation 1.Africa is not a country 2.The importance of research universities in Africa 3.A few diagnostics about South Africa 4.The Higher Education Research and Advocacy Network in Africa (HERANA) 5.Knowledge Production Profiles 6.Rankings in Africa

3. Africa needs research universities 1.Traditionally, universities in Africa focussed on ideology, elite selection and training, and performed poorly on knowledge production. 2.Africa needs to shift to increased participation (from low base of under 10% ) and increased knowledge production- massification and differentiation. 3.Research universities in low- and middle-income countries have crucial roles to play in developing differentiated and effective academic systems. 4.Understanding the characteristics of the research university and building the infrastructures and the intellectual environment needed for successful research universities is a top priority (Altbach, 2013).

4. Africa’s research performance 1.Publications in Africa increased from 11 776 in 2002 to 19 650 in 2008 – 66.9% growth (world average = 34.5%). 2.Africa’s share globally increased from 1.6% to 2.0%, Latin America from 3.8% to 4.9% and Asia from 24.2% to 30.7%. 3.From 2000-2008 Asia’s share of researchers rose from 35.2% to 38.2%, Latin America from 3.0% to 3.8% and Africa’s global share of researcher share fell from 2.2% to 2.1%. 4.African Union publication output grew by 43% compared to the world average of 18% (Source: Scopus). 5.If the African Union were a country, it would be just behind India, China and Brazil, but ahead of Russia in publication output in the BRICS. Sources: African Observatory for Science, Technology and Innovation; Zaleza P. 2014. The Development of STEM in Africa.

5. Capacity constraints & challenges facing Africa 1.Zeleza at Dakar Africa Summit on Higher Education: Massive expansion and support for HE required. 2.The underlying assumption of Zeleza’s argument is, More for Everybody, because in Africa no government or university sector wants to openly promote differentiation. 3.Research universities are a small percentage of the HE system: 1. US 5% (220 from 4000) 2. China 3% (100 from 3000) 3. UK 25% (25 from 100) 4.Many smaller developing countries only have one research intensive university and many none (Altbach 2013).

6. The South African Post-school System 2010 vs 2012 Compiled by Charles Sheppard Source: DHET HEMIS 2012

7. Higher education income sources, ZAR (billion) (Source: DHET, Financial Statements in Annual reports submitted by Universities)

8. Expenditure on higher education as % of GDP, 2012 Compiled by Charles Sheppard Source: OECD 2010

9. SA HE System: Diagnosis of National Planning Commission (2011) From Numerous Reviews (World Bank; Harvard; WEF) 1.low participation and high attrition rates 2.medium knowledge producing 3.insufficient capacity for adequate skills production 4.differentiated (but not a formal policy) 5.minority (+/- five ) of ‘chronic crisis’ institutions (gives HE bad press) Shift from Equity to Development, and the Return of Equity (Transformation Oversight Committee, 2013) SA continually paralyzed by inability to prioritize between competing interests

10. More PhDs 1.Castells – the university as engine of development in the knowledge economy (1991 Kuala Lumpur, World Bank; UWC 2001) 2.Knowledge more important than capital or materials 3.Talent, not capital is the primary source of competitive advantage 4.Unprecedented growth – China 50 000 p.a., University Sao Paulo more than the whole SA system – traditional systems US, UK much slower 5.Number of doctorates far exceed number of places in US in 1970 50% of PhD’s got tenure track position, by 2006 15% (100 000 new PhDs, 15 000 new academic jobs). In Germany only 6% aim for academic position 6.What do they do – finance, research organisations, pastors 7.Silicon valley – innovation 8.Ms Zuma, (AU commissioner, 2013) – Africa must produce ten’s of thousands of PhDs – as long as they stay in SA. 9. Naledi Pandor DST Budget speech, July 2014 – SA must produce 6 000 per year and will ask government for ZAR 5 billion 10. The PhD factories – is it time to stop? (Cyranoski in Nature, 2011)

11. PhD production in SA vs a number of selected OECD countries, 2000 and 2011 11 Country Average annual growth rate in total PhDs 2000 - 2011 Population 2011 2011 SET PhD graduates per 100,000 of 2011 population 2011 total PhD graduates per 100,000 of 2011 population Australia4.7%22 324 00015.927.2 Canada3.3%34 483 98010.316.5 Czech Republic9.6%10 496 67014.523.5 Finland-0.2%5 388 27221.134.4 Germany0.5%81 797 67024.233.4 Hungary5.1%9 971 7266.512.4 Ireland10.1%4 576 74820.331.6 Italy11.1%60 723 57011.818.6 Korea6.0%49 779 44014.023.4 Norway6.4%4 953 00016.726.2 Portugal3.5%10 557 56011.421.9 Slovak Republic12.8%5 398 38416.131.0 Switzerland2.2%7 912 39830.144.0 Turkey7.4%73 950 0003.56.3 United Kingdom5.1%61 761 00019.532.5 United States4.5%311 591 90013.023.4 South Africa4.5%51 770 5601.63.0 Source: OECD (2013) Graduates by field of study, data extracted on 4 July 2013.

12. Doctoral graduates by race (1996–2012)

13. Doctoral graduates produced by universities in 2012

14. Black doctoral graduates produced by universities in 2012

15. PhD graduates by nationality (2000, 2004, 2008, ‌2012) Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Knowledge Production and Contradictory Functions in African Higher Education

16. 16 Average annual growth rates by nationality and gender (2000–2012) Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Knowledge Production and Contradictory Functions in African Higher Education

17. South Africa a PhD Bargain 1.SA has 5 Universities in Shanghai top 500 2.Full time research PhD Costs UK (Bath) – $21 450 fees (foreigners) + $18 000 living = $46 050 US (Berkeley) – $31 900 fees + $23 000 living = $54 900 US (NYU ) – $41 300 fees + $26 000 living = $67 300 SA (US) – $2000 +$1000 (foreigners) + $10 000 living = $13 000 SA three times cheaper than Bath, four times cheaper than Berkeley and five times cheaper than NYU 3.Golden triangle – Efficiency, Transformation Quality (perceived) 4.But the Africans from the rest of Africa are not SA Africans, not black, not disadvantaged or not “ours” (nationalism or middle class xenophobia?) 5.Too few doctorates at African flagship universities

18. Policy Choices – SA a PhD hub for Africa? 1.SA wants to triple its PhD output and has made considerable investment in doctoral studies! 2.SA does not have the student interest/availability or the staff capacity to reach the targets (capacity exhaustion) 3.“As we are all acutely aware, we do not have the supervisory capacity in South Africa to produce the number of PhDs the government has set as a target. I suspect that we also don’t actually have the local candidature either. It thus seems logical that given our skills shortages and capacity challenges that where skilled workers wish to remain, they ought to be welcomed.” (Cloete et al 2015, Knowledge Production and Contradictory Functions) 4.SA Emigration policy – loose control over lows kills (township conflict- xenophobia) but restrict high skills (academic xenophobia) 5.Knowledge economy hubs – Silicon Valley, EdHubs (San Francisco) 6. Currently Government, and Universities on a Nationalistic path Email 6 May from a established scholar from the rest of Africa: Nico, In retrospect, the odds were stacked against me, as the order of preference the selection committee had agreed upon beforehand was first a black South African, then coloured SA, then Indian and then a non-national.

19. Network of 50 participating academics and senior administrators (mainly planners) in 12 countries Project is currently in its 7 th year. Carnegie, Ford, Norad. Participating African countries and “flagship” universities – Botswana – University of Botswana – Ghana – University of Ghana – Kenya – University of Nairobi – Mauritius – University of Mauritius – Mozambique – Eduardo Mondlane University – South Africa – University of Cape Town – Tanzania – University of Dar es Salaam – Uganda – Makerere University 19 Higher Education Research and Advocacy Network in Africa

20. Started in 2008 many participating institutions had fragmented information systems – both for student and staff data Took almost 3 years to collect a comparable data set from 2000 to 2007 Collecting the data also became capacity development in planning departments, and also involving in some cases the registrars and research directors By 2012, and with a simplified and common data manual, it took us less than 3 months to compile the 207 to 2011 data We are now, with a improved and published data manual collecting the 2011to 2013/14 data, which will be available by June 2015 The aim of this project is not to rank institutions, and to compare Harvard or Beijing with Makerere, but develop a set of Academic Core data for institutional reform, with a focus on knowledge production – OECD doctorate and publications 20 Data for Diagnosis, Comparison and Reforms

21. Proportion of undergraduate enrolments too high (2011) 21 Source: Bunting et al. (2014) An Empirical Overview of Eight African Universities

22. 22 Problematic ratios of masters to doctorate enrolments (2011) Source: Bunting et al. (2014) An Empirical Overview of Eight African Universities

23. Low percentage of academic staff with PhDs (2011) Source: Bunting et al. (2014) An Empirical Overview of Eight African Universities

24. Too few doctoral graduates (2001, 2007, 2011) Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Knowledge Production and Contradictory Functions in African Universities

25. 25 Publication output too low (1996–2013) Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Knowledge Production and Contradictory Functions in African Universities

26. 26 Mixed performance in % increase in publication output (1996-2013) Source: Web of Science. Compiled by Robert Tijssen and Hannah Williams

27. Ratios of high-level knowledge outputs to academic staff with doctorates Source: Bunting et al. (2014) An Empirical Overview of Eight African Universities

28. Rankings in Africa: Important, interesting, irritating or irrelevant? (Ellen Hazelkorn): Pretoria, Makerere and Eduardo Modlane Rankings pose different kinds of challenges and opportunities for universities in Africa. The goal is not necessarily to make it to the top 500 but to achieve what global rankings achieve for institutions that are in the top ranks. They want to be at the top of their own race, remain competitive in their own regions and amongst their peers, prove their worth so as to attract funding from governments and international funding agencies, and attract the best students and faculty members. This does not mean that rankings do not lead to perverse effects; such as interpreting Webometrics to be an indicator of academic and research performance when it actually measures ‘web presence’. Or that they are in the wrong race! (Jamaica) HERANA intention (and demonstrated success) is to develop a set of comparable indicators that can inform specific university strategies to strengthen knowledge production in universities in Africa. 28 Rankings

29. Nico Cloete Ian Bunting Charles Sheppard & François van Schalkwyk Data from CHET, CREST & African HE Open Data www.chet.org.za/data/african-he-opendata