1. Multiple Measures Assessment Project: Math & English Models from Phase II Multiple Measures Pilot College Convening - North Cañada College Terrence Willett October 28, 2015

2. MMAP variables for predicting CC success English Cumulative HS GPA AP English class grade Score on English CST Grade in last English class Math Cumulative HS GPA Grade in Algebra I, Algebra II, Statistics, Trigonometry, Calculus Taking a challenging CST Score on math CST

3. Why Decision Trees? Provide easy-to follow and easy-to-code rule sets Create discrete categories No distributional or relational assumptions Visual presentation of decisions/decision-making They’re fun!

4. A B Z Z A B B Z A A B A B A B AAABBB ZZZ Increasing Homogeneity with each split Branch Internal Node Leaf Node Root Node

7. Statistics Tree – Direct Matriculants

8. Statistics Tree – NDM

9. English Decision RulesDirect matriculantsNon-direct matriculants Transfer-level (criterion = 0.70 / 0.70) HS 11 GPA >= 2.6 HS 12 GPA >= 2.6 One-level below (criterion = 0.65 / 0.65) HS 11 GPA >= 2.3 HS 12 GPA >= 2.2 & HS 12 English course GPs >= 1.8 Two-levels below (criterion = 0.60 / 0.55) HS 11 GPA >= 2.0 HS 12 GPA >= 1.8 & HS 12 English course GPs >= 1.1 HS 12 GPA >= 1.8 & CST >= 288 Three-levels below (criterion = 0.55 / 0.55) HS 11 GPA >=1.4 HS 12 GPA >=1.5 & CST>=268 HS 12 GPA >=1.7 Four-levels belowEveryone else

10. Level (CB21 code, criterion) Hardcoded Pre- Requisite Direct Matriculants (Up through 11th grade, no CST) Non-Direct Matriculants With CST Non-Direct Matriculants Without CST Pre-Calculus (criterion = 0.70) Algebra II (or better) HS GPA>=3.4 HS GPA>=2.6 AND Calculus HS GPA>=3.3 HS GPA>=3 AND CST>=340 HS GPA>=3.3 HS GPA>=3 AND Calculus C or better Statistics (criterion=0.70) Algebra I (or better) HS_11_GPA >= 3.0 HS_11_GPA >= 2.3 AND Pre-Calculus with C or better HS_12_GPA >= 3.0 General Education Math (Transfer Level) (criterion=0.70) Algebra I (or better) HS GPA >=3.3 HS GPA>=3.2 OR HS GPA>=2.9 AND Stat C or better College Algebra (criterion=0.70) Algebra II (or better) HS GPA >=3.2 HS GPA >=2.9 AND Pre-Calculus C or better HS GPA>=3.2

11. Level (CB21 code, criterion) Hardcoded Pre- Requisite Direct Matriculants (Up through 11th grade, no CST) Non-Direct Matriculants With CST Non-Direct Matriculants Without CST Calculus I (criterion = 0.70) Pre-Calculus or Trigonometry (or better) HS GPA>=3.6 HS GPA>=3.2 AND Pre- Calculus C or better HS GPA>=3.1 AND Calculus C or better HS GPA>=3.5 HS GPA>=3.1 AND Calculus HS GPA>=3.5 Higher level math rules

12. Algebra II (CB21=A, criterion=0.65) HS 11 GPA >=2.8 HS 12 GPA >=2.9 HS 12 GPA >=2.5 AND Algebra II CST >= 302 HS 12 GPA >=2.9 HS 12 GPA >=2.5 AND Pre-Calculus with C or better Algebra I (CB21=B, criterion = 0.55) HS 11 GPA>=2.4 HS 12 GPA>=2.5 HS 12 GPA>=2.0 AND Algebra I CST >= 302 HS 12 GPA>=2.3 AND Algebra II C or better Pre-Algebra (CB21=C, criterion 0.50) HS 11 GPA>=2.0 HS 12 GPA >=2.1 HS 12 GPA >=1.6 AND Algebra 1 Cluster 1 (Number Properties, Operations, and Linear Equations) >= 8 HS 12 GPA >=2.1 Arithmetic (CB21=D) Everyone else Basic Skills Math Decision Rules

13. Correlations with College Grade: 11 th grade Cumulative GPA vs. Accuplacer English11 th Grade GPAAccuplacer Transfer 0.270.10 1 level below 0.240.12 2 levels below 0.250.12 3 levels below 0.180.12 4 levels below 0.210.07 Math11 th Grade GPAAccuplacer Transfer - STEM 0.240.19 Transfer – Stats 0.310.16 Transfer – LAM 0.260.09 1 level below 0.280.21 2 levels below 0.260.11 3 levels below 0.230.11 4 levels below 0.190.05

17. How long is High School GPA good for?

18. Mallory Newell The RP Group newellmallory@deanza.edu Terrence Willett The RP Group twillett@rpgroup.org Craig Hayward The RP Group chayward@rpgroup.org John Hetts Educational Results Partnership jhetts@edresults.org Ken Sorey Educational Results Partnership ken@edresults.org Daniel Lamoree Educational Results Partnership dlamoree@edresults.org MMAP Research Team Contacts http://www.rpgroup.org/projects/multiple-measures-assessment-project

20. Predicting transfer-level grades TestCorrelation with GPs Corrected correlation CTEP Grammar.10.16 CTEP Reading.06.09 CTEP Syntax.08.12 Math Assessment Test.21.29 11 th Grade GPA - English.38.39 11 th Grade GPA – Math.37.38

21. Cost Old modelAccelerationMIH + Acceleration Semesters321 Units1064 Cost to get all to Engl 1A $1,677,552 $1,084,682 $208,851 Placement at Transfer level18%29%57%

22. Equity impact: F2011 Baseline Equity Gaps for 2- year rates of achievement

23. Equity impact: F2012 2-year rates of achievement