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Minneapolis Regional Chamber of Commerce, Critical Issues Forum Charlie Zelle, Commissioner Minnesota Department of Transportation
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3 Moving goods ▪ Value of freight moved in MN -- 2007 $1 trillion ▪ Rail carries 240 million tons of freight ▪ MN handles 480,000 tons of air cargo annually Connecting us to recreation ▪ ~8 million people visit MN state parks annually ▪ 40 million annual visitors to MOA Getting us to work and school ▪ Average Minnesota drives 15,000 miles a year
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50% state highway pavements over 50 years old 35% of MnDOT bridges over 50 years old Almost 9% of bridges structurally deficient MN 9 th most extreme temperature variations in the nation Overall, state highway pavements rank 38 th in the nation 4
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5 Purchasing power declined 30% since 1988 (despite ’08 gas tax increase) Half the ‘08 gas tax increase was dedicated to debt service
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7 Under MnSHIP, the 20-year spending plan, pavement will worsen by 55% through 2024 and then gets even worse Interrupted service results in millions lost per day, to business Congestion may increase 30% per person Infrastructure repair dominates funding outlook – new projects less likely
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8 Identified Minnesota’s transportation funding needs the next 20 years Needs outpace revenue projections Identified $50B in investments over the next 20 years, all modes, to create economically competitive system For roads and bridges alone there is a $12B funding gap
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Status quo: No new funding or investments Maintain performance: An additional $5B in funding to maintain system performance at current levels Economically competitive: To serve a 21 st century economy, TFAC recommended an additional $12B over current levels 9
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Metro Area Multimodal Vision 10
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What’s the ROI for maintaining the current performance? What’s the ROI for spending more on improvements to help become more economically competitive? Which kinds of projects offer the highest ROI? 11
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$5B invested over 20 years to maintain current performance delivers $10B - $23B in benefits (ROI 3.1) Additional $7B over 20 years (achieve world-class system) gains $15B - $19B in benefits (ROI 2.1) Projects with the highest ROI: ◦ Active Traffic Management, ◦ General Congestion Mitigation ◦ and Safety Spot Improvements 12
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The team drew on MnDOT expertise as well as national best practices to establish ranges of typical returns for 10 investment categories 13 Source: Technical memo, project team analysis Ranges of ROI for each investment category Mapped TFAC investment categories (4) to MnSHIP investment categories (10) STEP 1 Drew on empirical evidence to establish ranges of returns STEP 2
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Vehicle operating costs Travel time savings Safety benefits Lifecycle costs 14
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Maintain current performance ◦ Incremental investment $5B ◦ Average benefit $16B Economically competitive and world class ◦ Incremental investment $7B ◦ Average benefit $14B Total = $12B investment, $31B average benefit 16
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Active Traffic Management, 8.9 Congestion Mitigation-General, 5.5 Safety Spot Improvement, 4.1 MnPASS, 3.5 Pavement Preservation, 2.0 Bridge Repair, 1.5 Pavement Reconstruction (urban), 1.4 Capacity Development, 1.2 Bridge Replacement, 1.0 Pavement Reconstruction (corridor), 0.9 17
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Population expected to increase by almost 1 million to over 6.1 by 2030 Twin Cities area expected to grow twice as much as rest of the state Truck freight will increase by 30% Baby boomers will start turning 80 in 2025 (need for more transportation options) Millennials demand a more multimodal system 18
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Enhancing, connecting communities Supporting businesses, contributing to economic benefits of MN Taking care of what we have Careful management of limited state resources
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