1. Prescillano C. Seno Jr. Municipal Coordinator-Hernani and Balangkayan Plan International Review on Contingency Planning/Worst Case Scenario Building

2. Referring to specific threats Presence of early warning/trend Achieving readiness to respond Premium on rapidity and appropriateness Emphasizes inter-agency coordination Not a mere academic exercise Referring to specific threats Presence of early warning/trend Achieving readiness to respond Premium on rapidity and appropriateness Emphasizes inter-agency coordination Not a mere academic exercise In Brief: Contingency Plan

3. Scanning the Environment Generating Scenarios (Anatomy of emergency) Predicting Needs Employ indicators Taking stock Of Resources Arranging Response System & Actions Setting policies and sectoral objectives Identify Gaps Endorsement/ Updating /Testing & Activation THE PROCESS

4. Contingency Cycle ASSESSMENTFORMULATION ENDORSEMENT/ TESTING/UPDATING ACTIVATION

5. Scanning the Environment

6. GEOGRAPHIC: location, contour, features,etc DEMOGRAPHIC: population, concentration, mobility, density, growth ECONOMIC: production, industry, trade, transportation, ownership, etc SOC-CULTURE: ethnic composition, culture and habits, main issues, traditional links SECURITY & DEFENSE: crimes, major threats, public safety, major installations, border issues, etc GEOGRAPHIC: location, contour, features,etc DEMOGRAPHIC: population, concentration, mobility, density, growth ECONOMIC: production, industry, trade, transportation, ownership, etc SOC-CULTURE: ethnic composition, culture and habits, main issues, traditional links SECURITY & DEFENSE: crimes, major threats, public safety, major installations, border issues, etc Scanning the Environment

7. PAST EVENTS - what - when - where PAST EVENTS - what - when - where POTENTIAL HAZARDS/RISK - probability - impact POTENTIAL HAZARDS/RISK - probability - impact Scanning the Environment B. HAZARD/DISASTER PROFILE BUILDING

8. Defining the Event to Plan for Criteria *Probability to occur (P) * Will create the most Impact (I) Scanning the Environment

9. RANKHAZARDPIREMARKSAVERAGE Hazard ID and Risk Assessment Group CP Form 1 Legend:P – ProbabilityI – Impact RISK RATING SCALE 1 – Most unlikely1 – Negligible 2 – Low Probability2 – Low Impact 3 – Perhaps 3 – Minimal Impact 4 – High Probability4 – High Impact 5 – Almost Certain5 – Devastating Scanning the Environment

10. Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

11.  By this time you should have arrived at one particular emergency that is agreed to be the one that the local must plan for Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

12. Part-1 Draw a location map Put important landmarks State & describe the emergency event Draw the event in the map.. Part-1 Draw a location map Put important landmarks State & describe the emergency event Draw the event in the map.. Part-2 Determine the root cause/s Identify the trigger List down the observable early warning signals … Part-2 Determine the root cause/s Identify the trigger List down the observable early warning signals … Drawing the Anatomy of the Event to plan for Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

13. Root CausesEarly Warning Triggering Factors DRR Measures (P / M / R) Event to Plan for _______________________ Group ____ CP Form 2 Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

14. What scenarios do we plan for? Different shapes of possible emergency Scenarios to which your School is likely to respond. Scenarios to which your School is likely to respond. 3 of the most plausible scenarios (Bad, Worse & Worst) 3 of the most plausible scenarios (Bad, Worse & Worst) Plan for the “worst case” scenario Plan for the “worst case” scenario The plausibility or probability of each scenario should be communicated to other offices to assess the urgency and preparedness actions. The plausibility or probability of each scenario should be communicated to other offices to assess the urgency and preparedness actions. Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

15. Stating Scenarios Bad, Worse, Worst Assumptions form the foundation of each scenario and should be made explicit so others can understand the reasoning. Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

16. ScenarioWorst Case Description of the eventVolcanic eruption reaching Alert Level 5 Impact on social sector 1.Families directly affected 2.Deaths 3.Injuries 4.Missing 5.Houses damaged  20,943 households  3,000 persons  20,000 persons  3,000 persons  31,000 houses damaged due to pyroclastic flow  3,500 houses damaged due to lahar flow  P5.2 Billion worth of damaged houses Impact on Agriculture 1.Sugarcane 2.Livestock 3.Fisheries 4.Others  P2.5 Billion worth of damage in agriculture ASSUMPTIONS: KANLAON VOLCANO

17. S C E N A R I O SITUATIONSBad CaseWorse CaseWorst Case Description of Event/occurence Death/Injury Affected Population Effects on Housing, Properties and Livelihood Effects on Infra and Facilities Response Capabilities Event to Plan for _______________________ Group ____ CP Form 3 Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

18. No. of Population likely to be affected: _____________________ CP Form 4 Defining the CP Planning Scenario / Anatomy of the Event to Plan For

19. So you have an event in mind, but...

20. Setting Policies and Objectives

21. General Policies - Defines vision and direction of operation - Defines areas of responsibilities - Reference for operation - General in nature, less controversy - Should be acceptable to all parties Setting Policies and Objectives

22. Important Policies to Consider Global norms Global norms - Declaration of World Leaders during the World - Declaration of World Leaders during the World Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction held Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction held on January 18 – 22, 2005, Kobe, Japan on January 18 – 22, 2005, Kobe, Japan - Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) Priorities - Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) Priorities for Action 2005 – 2010 for Action 2005 – 2010 - UN Milennium Development Goals (UNMDGs) - UN Milennium Development Goals (UNMDGs) Setting Policies and Objectives

23. - SPHERE Project on Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Disaster Response - SPHERE Project on Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Disaster Response - United Nations Convention on Refugee Status - United Nations Convention on Refugee Status - UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement (UNGPID) - UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement (UNGPID) - IFRC’s International Disaster Response Laws, Rules and Principles (IDRL) - IFRC’s International Disaster Response Laws, Rules and Principles (IDRL) - ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER) - ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER) - UN Cluster Approach for Humanitarian Response - UN Cluster Approach for Humanitarian Response Setting Policies and Objectives Important Policies to Consider Global norms Global norms

24. Setting Policies and Objectives Important Policies to Consider LOCAL NORMS - RA 10121 - Local Government Code of 1991 - Other local legislations/issuances

25. INSTRUCTIONS: 1. You may ask each group to formulate at least two (2) policy statements on the following areas of concern : Resource Allocation Coordination (GO – NGO – Private Sector) Standards in Humanitarian Assistance Human Security (for responders) Setting Policies and Objectives

26. Resource Allocation / Human Security (for responders) Coordination (GO – NGO – Private Sector) Standards in Humanitarian Assistance Setting Policies and Objectives

27. Identifying Gaps PROJECTED NEEDS VS. EXISTING RESOURCES

28. 1.Brainstorm on all tasks in emergency response 2.Group them into major clusters of task and arrange vertically 3.List horizontally all agencies/ parties to be involved in the response 4.Link the clusters with agencies 5.Determine who are the coordinators 1.Brainstorm on all tasks in emergency response 2.Group them into major clusters of task and arrange vertically 3.List horizontally all agencies/ parties to be involved in the response 4.Link the clusters with agencies 5.Determine who are the coordinators Task Analysis Identifying Gaps

29. GAP ID MATRIX T A S K S / N E E D S AGENCIES LIKELY TO BE INVOLVED

30. Result of Task Analysis: A gap analysis matrix containing what will be accomplished by who by when Identifying Gaps

32. Main Points  Many problems facing emergency managers point to the need for more openness towards coordination, starting from indicators as common DENOMINATION  It is important to shift the focus from “We, the responders” to “They, the people who need help”  Standard indicators are valuable tools in all of these regards, but they must be balanced with common sense Identifying Gaps

33. SECTORS / CLUSTERS - SAR - WASH - Evacuation Center Management - Food - Communications / Security - Engineering

34. – Food & nutrition – Health/Medical – Water & sanitation – Temporary shelter – Evacuation Center Management – Transportation – Communications and Warning – DANA – SAR – Engineering – Command, Control & Coordination – On-Scene Incident Management The Sectors / Clusters Identifying Gaps

35. Some Emergency Indicators Balance analysis of indicators with common sense! Identifying Gaps

36. Define sectoral objectives Define sectoral objectives Present the sector / cluster organization (sector/cluster leads and members). Present the sector / cluster organization (sector/cluster leads and members). Describe the sector/cluster tasks Describe the sector/cluster tasks Describe the general situation in the sector Describe the general situation in the sector when the event to plan for occurs when the event to plan for occurs Define the needs by comparing the existing resources vs. projected requirements Define the needs by comparing the existing resources vs. projected requirements Determine the sectoral indicators when appropriate Determine the sectoral indicators when appropriate Draw a flowchart of the sector’s activities and how the tasks are distributed to sector members Draw a flowchart of the sector’s activities and how the tasks are distributed to sector members Define the sector / cluster DRR measures (ST –MT –LT) Define the sector / cluster DRR measures (ST –MT –LT) Define sectoral objectives Define sectoral objectives Present the sector / cluster organization (sector/cluster leads and members). Present the sector / cluster organization (sector/cluster leads and members). Describe the sector/cluster tasks Describe the sector/cluster tasks Describe the general situation in the sector Describe the general situation in the sector when the event to plan for occurs when the event to plan for occurs Define the needs by comparing the existing resources vs. projected requirements Define the needs by comparing the existing resources vs. projected requirements Determine the sectoral indicators when appropriate Determine the sectoral indicators when appropriate Draw a flowchart of the sector’s activities and how the tasks are distributed to sector members Draw a flowchart of the sector’s activities and how the tasks are distributed to sector members Define the sector / cluster DRR measures (ST –MT –LT) Define the sector / cluster DRR measures (ST –MT –LT) Sectoral / Cluster Planning Identifying Gaps

37. X = minor (X) = major/lead Cluster/Sector Plans and Arrangements CP Form 5 – Task Analysis Identifying Gaps

38. Cluster/Sectoral Planning and Arrangements CP Form 6 – Needs and Activities Inventory Objective: To upgrade immediate/adequate relief/food assistance to affected families Cluster/Sector _______________ Identifying Gaps

39. Cluster/Sector Planning and Arrangements CP Form 7 – Resource Inventory Cluster /Sector_______________ Identifying Gaps

40. Cluster /Sector Planning and Arrangements CP Form 8 – Needs Projection and Resource Gap Identification Cluster/Sector _______________ Identifying Gaps

41. Concept of Operation (Flow Chart) Sector: ______________

42. Arranging Response Systems and Actions Coordination

43. Mock Coordination Meeting Elect one chairperson Simulate a coordination meeting Sectoral presentation Putting them together into a coherent plan Take note of possible gaps Elect one chairperson Simulate a coordination meeting Sectoral presentation Putting them together into a coherent plan Take note of possible gaps

44. CONSOLIDATION OF THE DRAFT CONTINGENCY PLAN Integrate the otherwise fragmented sectoral plans into a coherent contingency plan (drafting stage) A three-man committee may be constituted to consolidate the draft contingency plan based on the standard Contingency Plan format Follow-up of the draft plan – regular and monitoring meetings, updating of facts and assumptions

45. Endorsement and Activation

46. Endorsement - Activation When the plan has been finalized, have the group actually submit the PLAN to relevant authorities... Local Chief Executive/Chairman-LDCC... Local Sanggunian Provide sufficient justification to the local chief executive and local Sanggunian that in case such emergency takes place, the amount of resources specified in the plan will be required.

47. Endorsement - Activation  Who will put together the sectoral plans into a Contingency Plan?  Which agency will follow through this plan (calling regular and monitoring meeting, updating the facts and assumptions, etc.)  Who will monitor and report the early warning signals  How the plan will be tested (table-top, hypothetical drill, full-fledged simulation?)  When and how will the plan be activated?, reviewed, and updated (or staged down)

48. Steps Forward

49. Contingency Plan Format