1. Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 1 March 2010 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

2. Outline Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rainfall & Temperature Patterns NCEP/GFS Model Forecast Forecast Verification

3. Canada and US: A major winter storm brought heavy rain and heavy snow to the Northeast. Much of western Canada remained warmer and drier than normal, due in part to the current negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The GFS forecasts dry conditions across the east-central US (consistent with El Nino), with near average precipitation for much of Canada and the US over the next 7 days. Mexico and Central America: Heavy precipitation fell this week across Cuba due to an enhanced subtropical jet, while Mexico, Central America and Hispaniola observed near average precipitation this past week. For the next 7 days the GFS forecasts drier than normal conditions for central and southern Mexico and parts of Central America. Eurasia: A major storm system brought heavy precipitation and high winds to Portugal, Spain and coastal France. Warmer than normal temperatures spread across much of Europe and central and southern Russia, with anomalously warm temperatures also in China. For the next 7 days the GFS forecasts dry weather over southeastern Asia, with near average precipitation across most of the remainder of Eurasia. Highlights

4. ENSO Current Status General Summary: El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010. During the last 4 weeks (6 Feb - 27 Feb 2010), equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 175°E and 125°W. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

5. MJO Current Status The MJO Index indicates a signal in phases 7 and 8 with little or non-steady eastward movement, which is consistent with El Nino conditions. The GFS MJO index forecasts indicate that the signal will remain generally in phases 6, 7 and 8 with no eastward propagation. El Nino conditions continue to contribute to the strong amplitude and non- steady behavior of the MJO index forecast.  The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes  The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO  Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.  Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength  Line colors distinguish different months MJO Index -- Recent EvolutionEnsemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

6. Northern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status North AmericaWest AfricaEast Asia For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/ Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days During the last 90 days near to below average rainfall has occurred over the southwest US and northwest Mexico. During the last 90 days near average rainfall has occurred in west Africa near Senegal and Guinea. Near average rainfall has occurred in the coastal Gulf of Guinea region and Sudan. During the last 90 days below average rainfall has occurred in parts of southern China and above average precipitation has occurred in eastern China. Monsoon Season: JUN-SEP Monsoon Season: MAY-OCTMonsoon Season: JUN-SEP

7. Northern Hemisphere Circulation 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period ( 21 - 27 Feb 2010), anomalous 200-hPa anticyclonic circulation centers was located over northwest Africa and just east of Hawaii, while anomalous cyclonic circulation centers were located over the northern Atlantic and northern Russia. During the same 7-day period temperature anomalies were above average over eastern Canada and northeastern Africa. Temperatures were below average over the southeastern US, northern Russia, and eastern Asia. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. A C A C

8. Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than- normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days During the 7-day period (21 - 27 Feb 2010), anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was observed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the western U.S., northeastern Asia, and western Europe (top panel red ovals). During the same time period precipitation was observed over many of the same areas. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

9. Canada and US Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, a major winter storm late in the period brought above normal precipitation (in the form of heavy snow and heavy rain) to the Northeast US, while another western U.S. storm system brought higher elevation snow and lower elevation rains to northern California. Precipitation was below average in western Canada and the southeast US, while precipitation was near average in eastern Canada.

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 15 days, drier than average conditions have prevailed over the Pacific Northwest, western Canada, and parts of the southeast US.

12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 30 days, precipitation was above average in the southern tier of the US, consistent with El Nino. Drier than normal conditions were prevalent across the Pacific Northwest, parts of the Tennessee Valley, and western Canada.

13. 30 day rainfall totals are below average in the northwest US and northern California, above average in the central US, and near average in Florida. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

14. Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum During the past week temperatures remained above average over much of Canada. These are conditions reflective of the ongoing negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). AnomalyExtreme Minimum

15. Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum Below normal temperatures encompassed much of the central and southern US during the past week. Across the Northeast, an anomalous mild southeast flow associated with a late- week storm system led to much above normal temperatures. Snow cover and the negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) have contributed to below average temperatures in the southern plains. Below normal temperatures surged southward into central sections of Mexico, with lows in the single digits to lower teens for central and southern Mexico. AnomalyExtreme Minimum

16. TotalAnomaly NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 1 Mar 2010 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 wet conditions are forecast across southern Alaska and parts of the southeast US, while dry conditions are forecast for the east-central US and across the Pacific Northwest. Dry conditions in the east-central US are consistent with El Nino.

17. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 wet conditions are forecast for the Alaskan coast and the southeast US, while drier than average conditions are forecast for the southwest US. Forecasts from 1 Mar 2010 – Week 2

18. Forecast Verification: North America Total Anomaly Forecast from 16 Feb 2010 Valid 23 Feb – 1 Mar 2010 Forecast from 22 Feb 2010 Valid 22 Feb – 28 Feb 2010 Observed 22 Feb - 28 Feb 2010 Anomaly Total

19. Mexico and Central America Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

20. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 7 days, active convection due to an enhanced subtropical jet brought much above normal precipitation to Cuba. Much of Mexico and Central America experienced near normal precipitation. For more information see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/central_america/central_america_hazard.pdf

21. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 15 days, precipitation anomalies over Mexico, central America and Hispaniola remained near or slightly above normal. Much above normal precipitation observed over Cuba has fallen in the past 7 days.

22. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, precipitation was above average across much of Mexico associated with a southward shifted storm track and an enhanced subtropical jet.

23. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days 30 day rainfall totals are above average in northern and central Mexico and below average rainfall in southern Mexico and Nicaragua/Honduras. Above average precipitation amounts over central Mexico was due to a period of anomalously wet days in early February.

24. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 1 Mar 2010 – Week 1 For Days 1-7 below average precipitation is forecast for northern parts of central America and the Yucatan.

25. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 above average precipitation is forecast for central and southern Mexico into northern Central America. Forecasts from 1 Mar 2010– Week 2

26. Forecast Verification: Central America Total Anomaly Forecast from 16 Feb 2010 Valid 23 Feb – 1 Mar 2010 Forecast from 22 Feb 2010 Valid 22 Feb – 28 Feb 2010 Observed 22 Feb – 28 Feb 2010 Anomaly Total

27. Eurasia Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

28. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 7 days, a powerful storm system brought much above normal precipitation to western Spain and coastal sections of France. Above normal precipitation was also observed over northeastern Asia. Below normal precipitation was observed in southern Asia.

29. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 15 days, above average precipitation was observed over western and southern Europe, northwest Africa, southern Russia, central Africa and parts of Indonesia. Much above normal precipitation over western Europe and central Africa were largely due to potent storms in the past 7 days.

30. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, many of the same areas as in the previous slide have experienced above average precipitation.

31. 30 day precipitation totals show near normal precipitation in France (recent heavy rains reduced short-term dryness), near normal in Hungary, above normal in Ukraine, and below normal in central Russia. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

32. Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum AnomalyExtreme Minimum During the past 7 days above average temperatures prevailed across much of Europe. Lows remained below zero across central and eastern Europe but were above freezing and western and southern European countries. In northwest Africa temperatures were near to above average in northwest Africa.

33. Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum Temperatures were above average across much of western and southern Russia and below average in northern Russia and Siberia.

34. 30 day rainfall totals are below average in Gujarat, central India, and Luzon, and above average in eastern China. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

35. Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Minimum During the past week, India experienced above normal temperatures. Temperatures were well above average across much of China. Overnight lows climbed above freezing as far north as the southern North China Plain.

36. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 1 Mar 2010 – Week 1 For more information on Tropical Hazards see: (updated on Tuesdays) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ghaz.shtml For Days 1-7 the GFS forecasts near average precipitation across much of Russia and eastern Europe, with near to above average precipitation forecast for eastern Asia and southwestern Europe.

37. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 below average precipitation is forecast for central and southern China, with near average precipitation expected across the remainder of Eurasia. Forecasts from 1 Mar 2010 – Week 2

38. Forecast Verification: Eurasia Total Anomaly Forecast from 16 Feb 2010 Valid 23 Feb – 1 Mar 2010 Forecast from 22 Feb 2010 Valid 22 Feb – 28 Feb 2010 Observed 22 Feb – 28 Feb 2010 Anomaly Total

39. Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS) Hazards Impacts Assessments for Central America http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/central_america/central_america_hazard.pdf Africa http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/africa_hazard.pdf Afghanistan http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/AFGHANISTAN/afghanistan_hazard.pdf Meteorological Products for the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS-NET) Mesoamerica Famine Early Warning System (MFEWS) Asia Flood Network (AFN) Funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Additional products at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/

40. USDA Crop Information Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars