1. Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change: Black Carbon And Short-Lived Greenhouse Gases John C. Topping, Jr. Leaders Preserving Our Future: Pace and Priorities on Climate Change World Preservation Foundation London 3 November 2010

2. “On the basis of the increasing pace of global warming, including the potential for an abrupt acceleration, … the risk appears to be increasing that a tipping point leading to ‘dangerous,’ or perhaps even catastrophic change could surprise us in the years ahead.” Dr. Michael C. MacCracken

3. 20 th Century GHG Emissions 21 st Century CO 2 only Warming Effect During 21 st Century Business as Usual Emissions Scenario, Assumes Some Improvement in Energy Efficiency Credit: MacCracken 2009

4. 20 th Century GHG Emissions 21 st Century CO 2 Warming Effect During 21 st Century Business as Usual Emissions Scenario, Assumes Some Improvement in Energy Efficiency Credit: MacCracken 2009

5. 20 th Century GHG Emissions 21 st Century CO 2 Warming Effect During 21 st Century Business as Usual Emissions Scenario, Assumes Some Improvement in Energy Efficiency Credit: MacCracken 2009

6. 20 th Century GHG Emissions 21 st Century CO 2 Warming Effect During 21 st Century Business as Usual Emissions Scenario, Assumes Some Improvement in Energy Efficiency Credit: MacCracken 2009 20 th C BC

7. Successful Climate Change Solutions Require Moving Beyond CO 2 's Challenges Century long atmospheric lifetime CO 2 emission inertia bound to global energy and agriculture systems Difficult to achieve North-South consensus Uncertainty in CO 2 regulation Slashing emissions of black carbon and short-lived GHGs must be part of any credible strategy for climate stabilization

8. Rethinking How We Compare GHGs Common Metric: 1 tonne of methane = 22 tonnes of CO 2 Possible New Metric: 1 tonne of methane = 75 tonnes of CO 2 What’s the difference? (Hint: Methane only lasts 12 years)

9. Rethinking How We Compare GHGs Common Metric: 1 tonne of methane = 22 tonnes of CO 2 Possible New Metric: 1 tonne of methane = 75 tonnes of CO 2 Over Period of 100 years Over Period of 20 years

10. 1 Tonne of Methane vs. 1 Tonne of CO 2 Warming Effect Years12 20 100 Methane CO 2

11. Warming Effect From GHGs and BC Sources: IPCC AR4 (2007), MacCracken and Moore (2008), Ramanathan and Carmichael (2008) Emission TypeWarming Effect in 2005 over Pre-Industrial (watts / m 2 ) Atmospheric Lifetime Carbon Dioxide1.56Centuries-Millennia Methane0.8612 years N2ON2O0.14114 years CFC / HCFC0.28100-1000 years CO / VOC (O 3 precursors) 0.27CO – months, VOC – hours (O 3 – weeks) Black Carbon0.44-0.91-2 weeks Total 3.55 – 4.01

12. Tropospheric Ozone Formed as a secondary product of other emissions By oxidation of methane, CO, and VOCs in the presence of NO x Once formed, lasts 20 – 24 days Warming Effect is ~ 0.3 W/m 2 18% of CO 2 effect

13. Methane Atmospheric concentrations rising after several years of stability Lasts 12 years in atmosphere Warming Effect is ~ 0.86 W/m 2 Just over 50% of CO 2 effect Win-Win opportunities to reduce methane

14. Black Carbon (Soot) Dark-colored type of aerosol / particulate matter (PM) Absorbs sunlight and heat Stays in atmosphere for only 1 – 2 weeks Atmospheric Warming Effect is 0.44 – 0.9 W/m 2 28 – 55% of CO 2 effect Decreased snow albedo in Arctic and Himalayas Enormous regional increase in warming effect Globally averaged, is an additional 0.1 – 0.2 W/m 2 Harmful to human respiratory health

15. Regional Effects “ Tropospheric ozone and BC snow albedo effect contribute substantially to rapid warming and sea ice loss in the Arctic ” - James Hansen et al. 2005 Arctic Warming Since 1890 (Shindell et al. 2009) Black carbon:0.5 – 1.4 ˚ C Trop. Ozone:0.2 – 0.4 ˚ C Shindell estimates that combined sulfate decrease and BC increase caused 75% of direct Arctic warming over past 30 years

16. Benefits from Black Carbon Reduction Atmospheric loading and warming influence will drop as emissions drop Acute decrease in Arctic warming Reducing certain BC emissions will result in: Reduced indoor air pollution, which kills 1.9M annually Reduced outdoor air pollution, which kills 0.8M annually

17. 20 th Century GHG Emissions 21 st Century CO 2 only Warming Effect During 21 st Century Business as Usual Emissions Scenario, Assumes Some Improvement in Energy Efficiency Credit: MacCracken 2009 20 th C BC

18. 20 th Century GHG Emissions 21 st Century CO 2 only Warming Effect During 21 st Century Aggressive Reductions in both GHGs and Black Carbon Credit: MacCracken 2009

19. Near-Term Changes in Warming Effect Black Carbon is Critical to Reducing Near-Term Warming Business as Usual Aggressive Reductions in BC and GHGs Credit: MacCracken 2009 Business as Usual

20. Not part of Kyoto Protocol or any carbon valuation system Models for poor-rich country cooperation Clean cookstove efforts Manila jeepneys Developed countries must continue their BC reductions Strengthen diesel standards Increasing industrial energy recycling Acting aggressively through Arctic Council to slash BC emissions affecting Arctic Black Carbon Policy

21. Ways to Reduce BC Diesel Particulate Traps Jeepney Retrofits Biodegradable Motor Oils Vessel Emissions Industrial Energy Recycling Cleaner Cookstoves Suppression of Arctic Forest Fires

22. Tickell Interactive Network

23. A new public-private partnership led by the United Nations Foundation seeking to create a thriving global market for clean cookstoves in the developing world in order to: Save lives by reducing exposure to cookstove smoke; Empower women through productive enterprises associated with stove use, distribution, and production; Improve livelihoods by reducing disease, freeing time and saving money (which can be used for the purchase of food, medicine, or school fees) and many other social benefits (e.g. clean kitchen, extra time, etc. Combat climate change by mitigating emissions of black carbon and greenhouse gases, reducing rate of deforestation Advance Millennium Development Goals related to poverty, health,gender equality, and the environment. Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves Photo Credit: Sunil LalPhoto Credit: E+CoPhoto Credit: GTZPhoto Credit: Nigel Bruce

24. Thank You www.climate.org jtopping@climate.org