1. Synthesis Report of the Scientific Assessment Panel (SAP) Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) Technology and Economic Assessment Panel (TEAP) Synthesis Report Findings The Synthesis Report synthesizes and presents the combined key findings based on the 3 Assessment Reports Twenty-Seventh Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol Dubai: 1–5 November 2015

2. Marta Pizano (TEAP) John A. Pyle (SAP) A.R. Ravishankara (SAP) Min Shao (EEAP) Ashley A. Woodcock (TEAP) Synthesis Report Team We are grateful to the various authors of SAP, EEAP, TEAP and its TOCs reports- without them, this report would not be possible. Ayité-Lo Ajavon (SAP) Janet F. Bornman (EEAP) Bella A. Maranion (TEAP) Paul A. Newman (SAP) Nigel D. Paul (EEAP) Editorial support: Christine Ennis

3. 40 YEARS AGO: Damaging effects of ozone depleting substances first predicted 30 YEARS AGO: Ozone hole discovered TODAY: The ozone layer is showing indications of recovery and increases in UV exposure are being reversed 40 YEARS FROM NOW: Ozone and surface UV radiation are back to their original states 60 YEARS FROM NOW: Health impacts reversed The Ozone Layer: From potential disaster to recovery within a century

4. Today, because the Montreal Protocol has protected the ozone layer, large increases in UV radiation have been prevented except near the poles. By preventing large increases in UV radiation the Protocol has protected human health, food production and natural ecosystems. Overarching Messages

5. Within a century of its recognition, ozone layer depletion will be reversed. The international response will have prevented several hundred million cases of skin cancer and tens of millions of cataracts. Overarching Messages -contd.

6. Many ozone depleting substances (ODS) are also potent greenhouse gases. By controlling ODS the Montreal Protocol has decreased emissions of this important class of greenhouse gases, in contrast to all other major greenhouse gases that continue to increase. Overarching Messages -contd.

7. Some replacements for ODS are also potent greenhouse gases, and so have potentially harmful effects on climate. However, scientific and technological advances offer solutions, which if implemented could prevent this problem from becoming significant. Overarching Messages -contd.

8. Structure of our Report Sections: The Montreal Protocol: Where are we today? Major Findings Highlights Further Details…. Please see the report More you peel - more you see!

9. The Montreal Protocol: Where are we today?

10. Progress in technology reduced ODS use, and had beneficial side effects. Major Finding

11. CFCs used as blowing agents to make foams have been phased out ODS are essentially gone. HFCs usage is increasing.

12. CFCs in inhalers for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have been successfully phased out. Use of alternatives to ODS are increasing. This includes use of HFCs.

13. Controlled uses of methyl bromide have been drastically reduced with immediate benefit to the ozone layer; but continued QPS uses prevent further benefits being realized.

14. Halon production has been phased out since 2010; fire protection in civil aviation remains an unresolved challenge. Technological advances enabled movement away from ozone depleting solvents and other industrial process chemicals.

15. In response to the technological changes that enabled reductions in ODS usage, the sum of ODS amounts in the atmosphere is now decreasing from its maximum in the1990s. The ODS amounts are expected to continue decreasing with adherence to the Montreal Protocol Major Finding

16. ODS levels are projected to decline by about 0.6% each year until the end of this century, when they are expected to return to pre-1960 values. A note of caution: Some chemicals are not changing in the atmosphere as expected with compliance with the Montreal Protocol.

17. The reduction in atmospheric ODS concentrations has prevented further depletions in the stratospheric ozone layer, and there are some small signs of recovery. Major Finding

18. The global ozone layer has stabilized and is not getting worse, although it is still too early to unequivocally state that it is improving

19. The Antarctic ozone hole has not worsened. It continues to occur every year, with its magnitude essentially unchanged over the past decade within the expected year-to-year variability.

20. The control of ozone depletion has prevented large increases in UV radiation in most parts of the globe. Damaging effects of ozone loss on human health and the environment have been minimized. Major Finding

21. Human health has been protected from the worst effects of ozone depletion. The Montreal Protocol has limited the increases in solar UV-B radiation in populous areas in the world. Changes in lifestyle have increased UV exposure, and consequently the background prevalence of skin cancers.

22. Major Finding An emerging connection between the ozone layer depletion and climate is the introduction of the non-ozone depleting HFCs in place of ODS. Many HFCs are potent greenhouse gases and their potential influence on climate is a concern.

23. What did we gain by implementing the MP? The ozone layer will recover in the 21st century.

24. What do we expect? With complete adherence, the levels of ODS should decrease by about 0.6% per year during the rest of 21 st century.

25. In response to this decrease in ODS, the Arctic and global ozone layer should return to the benchmark 1980 levels around mid- century, and somewhat later for the Antarctic ozone hole. As ODS decline, the evolution of the stratospheric ozone layer in the second half of the 21st century will depend largely on atmospheric abundances of CO 2, N 2 O and CH 4.

26. Major Finding The surface levels of UV radiation will decline with the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer.

27. As the ozone layer recovers, UV-B radiation over the Antarctic is expected to decrease, broadly back to the same levels before the onset of ozone depletion. Predicting the effects of future changes in UV radiation is complicated by factors beyond just stratospheric ozone.

28. Major Finding The MP has delivered important co-benefits for climate.

29. In 2010, the decrease of annual ODS emissions under the Montreal Protocol was estimated to provide about five times the climate benefit compared with the annual emissions reduction target for the first commitment period (2008– 2012) of the Kyoto Protocol.

30. The world we avoided: What would the world be like in the absence of the MP?

31. Major Finding Without a successful Montreal Protocol, today’s world would have: higher ODS levels greater ozone depletion higher UV levels larger ODS climate forcing

32. “Ozone-hole like” depletions would have occurred in the future over large parts of the world 0100200300400500 Dobson Units Observed World Avoided by Montreal Protocol With Montreal Protocol 198019952015203020452060

33. Large increases in UV-B would have occurred

34. Major Finding Beyond 2015: If the Parties had failed to implement the Montreal Protocol, the consequences of ODS emissions would have continued through the coming decades.

35. Without a successful Montreal Protocol, the climate effects from higher ODS levels and from depletion of the ozone layer would have been large.

36. UV-B radiation at the Earth’s surface in the latter part of this century would have reached levels far beyond anything experienced in human history, with major impacts on people and the environment. UV index 2010 UV index 2090 UV index > 25

37. Looking ahead: What are the Challenges?

38. Major Finding The destruction of ODS banks is an option with diminishing returns to accelerate ozone layer recovery

39. Major Finding HFCs are benign to the ozone layer but some are potent greenhouse gases and continued increases in their use could lead to a significant negative climate impact

40. The future HFC emissions could be comparable with those of future CO 2 emissions by 2050 Low-GWP HFCs and other alternatives could help to maintain a negligible contribution to climate

41. Essential Principles of MP Commitment - universal ratification Consensus - a way to function Assistance - to Article 5 countries Independent assessments Periodic updates Operating infrastructure - e.g., MLF Monitoring and compliance

42. 40 YEARS AGO: Damaging effects of ozone depleting substances first predicted 30 YEARS AGO: Ozone hole discovered TODAY: The ozone layer is showing indications of recovery and increases in UV exposure are being reversed 40 YEARS FROM NOW: Ozone and surface UV radiation are back to their original states 60 YEARS FROM NOW: Health impacts reversed The Ozone Layer: From potential disaster to recovery within a century

43. Much more in the Synthesis Report THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

44. The Antarctic ozone hole is the 4 th largest in our 1979-present record. Its magnitude varies year-to- year because of stratospheric weather variations. The ozone hole will recover by ~2070 to 1980 levels