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Published byIsaac Horn Modified over 9 years ago
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scottmcleod.net (click on Workshops) dangerouslyirrelevant.org
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The Law of Accelerating Returns Technological change is exponential (contrary to the common-sense "intuitive” linear view). 9
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Linear Plot Logarithmic Plot 10
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Logarithmic Plot 11
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Logarithmic Plot 13
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Logarithmic Plot 14
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES (OF ALL KINDS) DOUBLE THEIR POWER ABOUT (PRICE PERFORMANCE, CAPACITY, BANDWIDTH) EVERY YEAR 18
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Logarithmic Plot Linear Plot Logarithmic Plot Linear Plot 20
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Logarithmic Plot 21
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Logarithmic Plot 23
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We won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century. It will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate). 24
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Every year learning will be more …
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open accessible transparent free real-time convenient networked connected global collaborative shared crowdsourced flexible adaptive individualized personalized mutimodal technological multimedia self-directed
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open accessible transparent free real-time convenient networked connected global collaborative shared crowdsourced flexible adaptive individualized personalized EMPOWERI NG mutimodal technological multimedia self-directed
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Are you moving fast enough?
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Are you facilitating linear or exponential change in your school?
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Doubling (or Halving) times Dynamic RAM Memory “Half Pitch” Feature Size5.4 years Dynamic RAM Memory (bits per dollar)1.5 years Average Transistor Price1.6 years Microprocessor Cost per Transistor Cycle1.1 years Total Bits Shipped1.1 years Processor Performance in MIPS1.8 years Transistors in Intel Microprocessors2.0 years Microprocessor Clock Speed2.7 years 34
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Logarithmic Plot 35
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Linear Plot Logarithmic Plot Linear Plot 36
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