1. Lilli Schroeder, Alexander Gocht Alexander Gocht, Maria Espinosa, Adrian Leip, Emanuele Lugato, Lilli Aline Schroeder, Benjamin Van Doorslaer, Sergio Gomez y Paloma Promotion of grassland as strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? An EU-wide spatial analysis with the CENTURY and the CAPRI model 150th EAAE Seminar ‘The spatial dimension in analysing the linkages between agriculture, rural development and the environment’

2. Schroeder et al. Background: Grassland has high potential to sequester carbon Grassland protection in CAP (Pillar I only maintenance no enhancement; Pillar II for biodiversity issues) 2020: low carbon economy Our Policy Scenario: 5% grassland expansion at NUTS2 level, Farm Types (FT) can adapt differently according to economic conditions (yields, costs, etc.) Farmers receive premium Technical model implications: Farmers receive premium at which the conversion is economically feasible Iterative model approach until 5% target in NUTS2 regions is achieved Slide 2 Introduction 150th EAAE Seminar22.10.2015

3. Schroeder et al. The CAPRI Model MP model linked with linear market model Feedback mechanism  MP adapts to the price vector of the market model For whole EU + Turkey, Norway, Western Balkans 2430 Farm types Slide 3 150th EAAE Seminar http://www.capri-model.org 22.10.2015

4. Schroeder et al. The CENTURY Model - Carbon sequestration through conversion from arable into grassland Slide 4 Bio-geo-chemistry model CAPRESE project with EUCommission (ISPRA, IPTS) Based on climate and soil data 10x10 km grid cells aggregated to NUTS3 Linking CENTURY to CAPRI: Approximating location of FT models by linking NUTS3 to CAPRI FT (using FADN data) 150th EAAE Seminar22.10.2015

5. Schroeder et al. How much premium do farmers need as an incetive for conversion? Average 238 EUR/ha Slide 5 150th EAAE Seminar22.10.2015

6. Slide 6 150th EAAE Seminar Land Use Change at EU-FT level 1,000

7. Land Use Change at MS level Slide 7 150th EAAE Seminar22.10.2015

8. Land market Slide 8 150th EAAE Seminar22.10.2015

9. Slide 9 150th EAAE Seminar22.10.2015 Abatement costs SOC rates (soil + climate conditions) low in SK, LT, EE, LV Distribution of ruminant increases CH4 and N2O Increasing N2O (cultivation  fertilisation of new land) in UK, IT, ES

10. 22.10.2015 Slide 10 150th EAAE Seminar France, Italy and Spain, the Netherland and Germany can provide almost 2/3 of the 4.3 Mio t CO2e emission reduction at costs below 85 EUR/t CO2e (highest in Germany).

11. Abatement Cost Curve for net-emissions per FT at EU27level Slide 11 Larger farms and FT specialized in cereals and protein crops, mixed field cropping, granivores and mixed crops-livestock farming have highest potential at relatively low costs Different FTs can adjust differently to reach 5% target at NUTS2 level  adjustment is cost efficient & depends on production costs of each FT 150th EAAE Seminar22.10.2015 Example FT13 (specialized in cereals & protein crops): 0.84 Million t CO2e at costs of 65 EUR/t CO2e

12. Schroeder et al. EU overall net effect of 5% grassland expansion 1.2.9 Million ha converted into grassland (from arable 1.7 Million ha) 2.Reduction of net 4.3 Million t CO2e (CH4 and N2O emissions included) 3.Cost of about 417 Million EUR (average 238 EUR/ha) 4.Net abatement costs Ø 97 EUR/t CO2e, substantial carbon sequestration can be achieved already from 50 EUR/t CO2e Slide 12 150th EAAE Seminar22.10.2015

13. Schroeder et al. Conclusion: 3 influencing factors 1.regionally highly different carbon sequestration rates 2.regional land market differs regarding the available land buffer and land rents that in turn influence arising additional GHG emissions through land use change 3.regionally different predominant agricultural production influences e.g., if additional GHG emissions through increasing livestock occurs or if arable land is converted to grassland and hence carbon sequestration is realized Slide 13 150th EAAE Seminar22.10.2015

14. Schroeder et al. Conclusion for policy implication Expensive measure compared to others (restoring peatlands, afforestation) Not Appropriate everywhere –Not sensible as measure in CAP Pillar I –Could be implemented as tergeted AECM in CAP Pillar II Yearly payments needed Long term perspective –Abatement costs will increase Slide 14 150th EAAE Seminar22.10.2015

15. Schroeder et al. Slide 15 Thank you for your attention 150th EAAE Seminar22.10.2015

16. Slide 16 150th EAAE Seminar22.10.2015

17. Schroeder et al. The CAPRI Model http://www.capri-model.org Slide 17 for all EU Farm Types to analyse Rural Development (RD) measures targeting land, capital and labour and non- agricultural sectors CGE (= General Equilibrium Models) developed in CAPRI-RD project 150th EAAE Seminar22.10.2015

18. Schroeder et al. Sceanrio: 5% grassland expansion at NUTS2 level Slide 18 150th EAAE Seminar22.10.2015

19. Schroeder et al. Century c sequ. Slide 19 150th EAAE Seminar22.10.2015

20. Schroeder et al. Abatement Cost Curve for net-emissions: FT specialized in cereals, oilseed and protein crops Slide 20 Share 150th EAAE Seminar22.10.2015

21. Schroeder et al. The CAPRI Model: analysing impacts at Farm Type (FT) level Slide 21 Approximating location of FT models by linking NUTS3 to CAPRI FT (using FADN data) Each NUTS2 contains of different FTs  Variance within on NUTS2 150th EAAE Seminar22.10.2015

22. Intro 22.10.2015 Slide 22 150th EAAE Seminar

23. Schroeder et al. 22.10.2015 Slide 23 150th EAAE Seminar Permanent grassland Soil Roots Litter