1. Relationships Scatterplots and correlation BPS chapter 4 © 2006 W.H. Freeman and Company

2. Objectives (BPS chapter 4) Relationships: Scatterplots and correlation  Explanatory and response variables  Displaying relationships: scatterplots  Interpreting scatterplots  Adding categorical variables to scatterplots  Measuring linear association: correlation  Facts about correlation

3. StudentNumber of Beers Blood Alcohol Level 150.1 220.03 390.19 670.095 730.07 930.02 1140.07 1350.085 480.12 530.04 850.06 1050.05 1260.1 1470.09 1510.01 1640.05 Here we have two quantitative variables for each of 16 students. 1. How many beers they drank, and 2. Their blood alcohol level (BAC) We are interested in the relationship between the two variables: How is one affected by changes in the other one?

4. StudentBeersBAC 150.1 220.03 390.19 670.095 730.07 930.02 1140.07 1350.085 480.12 530.04 850.06 1050.05 1260.1 1470.09 1510.01 1640.05 Scatterplots A scatterplot is used to show the relationship between two quantitative variables. One axis is used to represent each of the variables, and the data are plotted as points on the graph.

5. Explanatory (independent) variable: number of beers Response (dependent) variable: blood alcohol content x y Explanatory and response variables A response variable measures or records an outcome of a study. An explanatory variable explains changes in the response variable. The explanatory variable is plotted on the x axis and the response variable is plotted on the y axis.

6. Some plots don’t have clear explanatory and response variables. Do calories explain sodium amounts? Does percent return on Treasury bills explain percent return on common stocks?

7. Let’s Make a Scatterplot StudentABCDEFG X = Number of Absences621591258 Y = Final Grade82864374589078 Let’s put this data into two lists on our TI-83… Which variable is the explanatory variable? Which is the response variable? Also, let’s plot the centroid of the data: If the data is “reasonable”, the centroid should represent the “center” of the scatterplot

8. Scatterplot for Example Data

9. Interpreting scatterplots (page 94)  After plotting two variables on a scatterplot, we describe the relationship by examining the form, direction, and strength of the association. We look for an overall pattern …  Form: linear, curved, clusters, no pattern  Direction: positive, negative, no direction  Strength: how closely the points fit the “form”  … and deviations from that pattern.  Outliers

10. Form and direction of an association Linear Nonlinear No relationship

11. Positive association: High values of one variable tend to occur together with high values of the other variable. Negative association: High values of one variable tend to occur together with low values of the other variable.

12. No relationship: x and y vary independently. Knowing x tells you nothing about y.

13. One way to remember this: The equation for this line is y = 5. x is not involved (slope = 0) No relationship: x and y vary independently. Knowing x tells you nothing about y.

14. Caution:  Relationships require that both variables be quantitative (thus the order of the data points is defined entirely by their value).  Correspondingly, relationships between categorical data are meaningless. Example: Beetles trapped on boards of different colors What association? What relationship? Blue White Green Yellow Board color Blue Green White Yellow Board color Describe one category at a time. ?

15. Strength of the association The strength of the relationship between the two variables can be seen by how much variation, or scatter, there is around the main form. With a strong relationship, you can get a pretty good estimate of y if you know x. With a weak relationship, for any x you might get a wide range of y values.

16. This is a very strong relationship. The daily amount of gas consumed can be predicted quite well by a measure of outside temperature. This is a weak relationship. For a particular state median household income, you can’t predict the state per capita income very well. A day’s degree-days are the number of degrees its average temp is below 65 degrees F.

17. Outliers An outlier is a data value that has a very low probability of occurrence (i.e., it is unusual or unexpected). In a scatterplot, outliers are points that fall outside of the overall pattern of the relationship.

18. Not an outlier: The upper right-hand point here is not an outlier of the relationship—it is what you would expect for this many beers given the linear relationship between beers/weight and blood alcohol. This point is not in line with the others, so it is an outlier of the relationship. Outliers

19. Example: IQ score and grade point average a)Describe what this plot shows in words. b)Describe the direction, shape, and strength. Are there outliers? c)What is the deal with these people?

20. The correlation coefficient is a measure of the direction and strength of a linear relationship. It is calculated using the mean and the standard deviation of both the x and y variables. The correlation coefficient “r” (page100) Correlation can only be used to describe QUANTITATIVE variables. Categorical variables don’t have means and standard deviations. Time to swim: x = 35, s x = 0.7 Pulse rate: y = 140 s y = 9.5

21. Part of the calculation involves finding z, the standardized score we used when working with the normal distribution. You DON'T want to do this by hand. Make sure you learn how to use your calculator!

22. Standardization: Allows us to compare correlations between data sets where variables are measured in different units or when variables are different. For instance, we might want to compare the correlation shown here, between swim time and pulse, with the correlation between swim time and breathing rate.

23. 1. Turn Diagnostics On: 2 nd Catalog, scroll down to DiagnosticOn and press Enter (you do not have to repeat this step everytime!) 2. Compute r (and a few other things!): Stat|Calc|LinReg(a+bx) press Enter and then give your lists: L1,L2 3. Your output should be: a=102.5, b=-3.62, r^2=0.8915, r=-0.9442 StudentABCDEFG Number of Absences (L1)621591258 Final Grade (L2)82864374589078 What can we say about the strength of the association between the two variables? Let’s use our TI’s to find the correlation for our data set!

24. “r” doesn’t distinguish explanatory and response variables The correlation coefficient, r, treats x and y symmetrically. “Time to swim” is the explanatory variable here and belongs on the x axis. However, in either plot r is the same (r = −0.75). r = -0.75

25. Changing the units of variables does not change the correlation coefficient “r,” because we get rid of all our units when we standardize (get z-scores). “r” has no unit r = -0.75 z-score plot is the same for both plots

26. When variability in one or both variables decreases, the correlation coefficient gets stronger (closer to +1 or −1).

27.  Symmetric in X and Y (makes no difference which variable is the explanatory and which is the response)  Both variables must be quantitative!  -1 <= r <= 1 ALWAYS  The closer in magnitude r is to 1, the stronger the linear relationship between X and Y  The sign of r indicates whether there is a positive or negative relationship between X and Y  Just like the mean and standard deviation, r is strongly affected by outliers  See pages 101-102 for more! Summary of Properties of the Correlation Coefficient (r) (page 101-102)

28. “r” ranges from − 1 to +1 “r” quantifies the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two quantitative variables. Strength: How closely the points follow a straight line. Direction is positive when individuals with higher x values tend to have higher values of y. Let’s play the Correlation Guessing GameCorrelation Guessing Game http://www.stat.uiuc.edu/courses/stat100/java/GCApplet/GCAppletFrame.html

29. Use correlation only for linear relationships. Note: You can sometimes transform non-linear data to a linear form, for instance, by taking the logarithm. You can then calculate a correlation using the transformed data. Caution using correlation

30. Consider the Four Data Sets Below – Any Observations?????? The point of this slide? Always, always plot your data!

31. Correlations are calculated using means and standard deviations and thus are NOT resistant to outliers. Just moving one point away from the general trend here decreases the correlation from −0.91 to −0.75. Influential points

32. Adding two outliers decreases r from 0.95 to 0.61. Try it out for yourself—companion book website http://www.whfreeman.com/bps4e

33. Adding categorical variables to scatterplots Often, things are not simple and one-dimensional. We need to group the data into categories to reveal trends. What may look like a positive linear relationship is in fact a series of negative linear associations.

34. Adding categorical variables to scatterplots Often, things are not simple and one-dimensional. We need to group the data into categories to reveal trends. What may look like a positive linear relationship is in fact a series of negative linear associations. Plotting different habitats in different colors allowed us to make that important distinction.

35. Comparison of men’s and women’s racing records over time. Each group shows a very strong negative linear relationship that would not be apparent without the gender categorization. Relationship between lean body mass and metabolic rate in men and women. While both men and women follow the same positive linear trend, women show a stronger association. As a group, males typically have larger values for both variables.

36. How to scale a scatterplot Using an inappropriate scale for a scatterplot can give an incorrect impression. Both variables should be given a similar amount of space: Plot roughly square Points should occupy all the plot space (no blank space) Same data in all four plots

37. 1) What is the explanatory variable? Describe the form, direction, and strength of the relationship. (in 1000s) 2) If women always marry men 2 years older than themselves, what is the correlation of the ages between husband and wife? Review examples age man = age woman + 2 equation for a straight line r = 1

38. Thought quiz on correlation 1.Why is there no distinction between explanatory and response variable in correlation? 2.Why do both variables have to be quantitative? 3.How does changing the units of one variable affect a correlation? 4.What is the effect of outliers on correlations? 5.Why doesn’t a tight fit to a horizontal line imply a strong correlation?