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Published byGyles Long Modified over 9 years ago
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S eptember 23, 2009 Jim Casey Industrial Forecast Luncheon
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Industrial Development Current Market Trends - Houston New spec project pipeline is shut down There is reasonable tenant leasing activity, but commitments are slow There has not been major give-backs of space Generally, the markets are declining slightly, but pretty stable Need to see job growth to generate meaningful absorption
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Values have declined; but little volume to establish values Lenders terms have shifted significantly; they don’t want to make new loans right now Equity is waiting on sidelines for more clarity on values Effects of long term debt roll-overs yet to come REIT’s are recovering, raising equity Capital Markets
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Northwest Largest and most diverse Oilfield services, computer industry, furniture, general goods Modest amount of big new space Sub Market is in balance Houston Submarkets vary significantly
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Southwest Fort Bend County is one of the fastest growing counties in the country Electronics, engineering, oilfield services Several new projects delivered in 2008 / 2009 Proximity and access to residential areas is key
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East Most forward looking submarket Petrochemical commodities, container traffic Big projects delivered; need to see new major increases in are housing to absorb the space Long-term factors should promote growth, but near-term is going to be difficult
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North Proximity to IAH is key Freight forwarding, oilfield services Export and import activities New international cargo routes developing
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Summary Houston industrial market is trending down, but the slope is shallow Need to watch job losses;….. will there be job gains in 2010? New construction pipeline has slowed to a trickle Houston should out-perform most of the country long-term
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