Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Maria Val Martin (CSU) and Colette L. Heald (MIT) J-F Lamarque, S. Tilmes and L. Emmons (NCAR) Thanks to the National Park Service for funding Effects.

Published byLawrence Warren Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Maria Val Martin (CSU) and Colette L. Heald (MIT) J-F Lamarque, S. Tilmes and L. Emmons (NCAR) Thanks to the National Park Service for funding Effects."— Presentation transcript:

1 Maria Val Martin (CSU) and Colette L. Heald (MIT) J-F Lamarque, S. Tilmes and L. Emmons (NCAR) Thanks to the National Park Service for funding Effects of Climate, Emissions and Land Cover Changes on Air Quality in the U.S. National Parks

2 Maria Val Martin (CSU) and Colette L. Heald (MIT) J-F Lamarque, S. Tilmes and L. Emmons (NCAR) About 50% of forests will be exposed to damaging O 3 by 2100; and 20% will exceed critical loads from S and N deposition by 2050 [FAO, 2007]

3 NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM 1.1_alpha12b) Coupler CAM-Chem 1.9x2.5 spatial resolution 26 vertical levels to ~3 hPa Land Model (CLM 4) IPCC scenarios and derived emissions (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) 2000 and 2050 GHGs O 3 and PM Precursors Prescribed sea-ice and ocean data (e.g., SST and sea-ice fraction) Land cover/use data (e.g., LAI, PFTs, etc)

4 Projections of global AQ-relevant emissions Similar GHGs projections, except CH 4 The RCP scenarios project large decreases for all emissions, except NH 3 and CH 4 in RCP 8.5 Emissions (Tg Species/year) Main GHGs 2050

5 Projections of land cover/land use changes RCP 4.5RCP 8.5 % Trees % Crops LAI

6 Fine Dust and Seasalt were adjusted to match IMPROVE observations Dust SeaSalt Emissions reduced by a factor of 2 and used an improved soil erodibility map Emissions reduced by a factor of 10

7 Effects on changes in climate alone ↑ 3 o C Annual Average in 2000 2050 RCP 4.5 - 20002050 RCP 8.5 - 2000 Precipitation Temperature

8 Effects of overall change on ozone Summer Daily Max 8-hr Avg Surface O 3 20002050 RCP 8.52050 RCP 4.5 ↓4 ppb ~↓ 10 ppb ↑2 ppb RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 ∆Total = 2050-2000

9 RCP4.5 projects an important O 3 reduction from decreased anthropogenic emissions RCP4.5 ∆Climate∆Land Cover/Use ∆Anthro Emissions Important decrease in NO x emissions

10 In RCP8.5, climate and land cover changes offset benefits from emission reductions RCP8.5 ∆Climate ∆ Land Cover/Use ∆Anthro Emissions

11 Both RCPs project a decrease in PM2.5 Annual Average PM 2.5 2000 2050 RCP 8.5 2050 RCP 4.5 RCP 4.5 RCP8.5

12 Change in PM2.5 due mainly to SO 4 and NH 4 NO 3 emission reduction Changes in Chemical Speciation East US West US

13 What is next… Rocky Mountain NP affected by Haze Study the effect of nitrogen deposition. Perform high resolution (0.5x0.5) simulations, and analyze the effect of spatial resolution on the results. Focus on the air quality over the US National Parks http://www.nature.nps.gov/

Download ppt "Maria Val Martin (CSU) and Colette L. Heald (MIT) J-F Lamarque, S. Tilmes and L. Emmons (NCAR) Thanks to the National Park Service for funding Effects."

Similar presentations

The CAFE baseline scenarios: Air quality and impacts

The CAFE baseline scenarios: Air quality and impacts
Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Changes in U.S. Regional-Scale Air.

Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Changes in U.S. Regional-Scale Air.
Nitrogen Deposition over the US Raluca Ellis, Fabien Paulot Daven Henze, Daniel Jacob Harvard University, U. Colorado Boulder AQAST 3 meeting, June 13,

Nitrogen Deposition over the US Raluca Ellis, Fabien Paulot Daven Henze, Daniel Jacob Harvard University, U. Colorado Boulder AQAST 3 meeting, June 13,
Multi-scale and Ensemble Modeling of the Effects of Global Change on Air Quality in the US NW –AIRQUEST Annual Meeting Washington State University Pullman,

Multi-scale and Ensemble Modeling of the Effects of Global Change on Air Quality in the US NW –AIRQUEST Annual Meeting Washington State University Pullman,
Predicted change in global SOA in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral.

Predicted change in global SOA in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral.
Climate, Fire and Air Quality Climate Impacts Group June 1, 2006.

Climate, Fire and Air Quality Climate Impacts Group June 1, 2006.
Effect of 2000-2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States Shiliang Wu, Loretta Mickley, Daniel Jacob, Eric Leibensperger, David Rind.

Effect of global change on ozone air quality in the United States Shiliang Wu, Loretta Mickley, Daniel Jacob, Eric Leibensperger, David Rind.
1 Maryland: Observed and Model Simulated Climate Change. Temperature, Precipitation & Theirs Variability Dr. Konstantin Vinnikov, Acting State Climatologist.

1 Maryland: Observed and Model Simulated Climate Change. Temperature, Precipitation & Theirs Variability Dr. Konstantin Vinnikov, Acting State Climatologist.
REFERENCES Maria Val Martin 1 C. L. Heald 1, J.-F. Lamarque 2, S. Tilmes 2 and L. Emmons 2 1 Colorado State University 2 NCAR.

REFERENCES Maria Val Martin 1 C. L. Heald 1, J.-F. Lamarque 2, S. Tilmes 2 and L. Emmons 2 1 Colorado State University 2 NCAR.
Effects of Siberian forest fires on regional air quality and meteorology in May 2003 Rokjin J. Park with Daeok Youn, Jaein Jeong, Byung-Kwon Moon Seoul.

Effects of Siberian forest fires on regional air quality and meteorology in May 2003 Rokjin J. Park with Daeok Youn, Jaein Jeong, Byung-Kwon Moon Seoul.
Regional Air Quality Modeling: Long Range Global Change Simulations.

Regional Air Quality Modeling: Long Range Global Change Simulations.
Effect of 2000-2050 global change on U.S. ozone air quality Shiliang Wu Loretta J. Mickley Daniel J. Jacob Eric M. Leibensperger David Rind (NASA/GISS)

Effect of global change on U.S. ozone air quality Shiliang Wu Loretta J. Mickley Daniel J. Jacob Eric M. Leibensperger David Rind (NASA/GISS)
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.
Air Pollution Impacts on Global Crop Productivity and Nitrogen Deposition AGU Fall Meeting December 17, 2014 Colette L. Heald Amos P.K. Tai (now at CUHK),

Air Pollution Impacts on Global Crop Productivity and Nitrogen Deposition AGU Fall Meeting December 17, 2014 Colette L. Heald Amos P.K. Tai (now at CUHK),
Land Use and Climate Change Stephanie J Houser Earth Climate Systems www.dcnr.state.pa.us www.gnb.ca www.injuryupdate.com.au.

Land Use and Climate Change Stephanie J Houser Earth Climate Systems
FROM AIR POLLUTION TO GLOBAL CHANGE AND BACK: Towards an integrated international policy for air pollution and climate change Daniel J. Jacob Harvard University.

FROM AIR POLLUTION TO GLOBAL CHANGE AND BACK: Towards an integrated international policy for air pollution and climate change Daniel J. Jacob Harvard University.
Prediction of Future North American Air Quality Gabriele Pfister, Stacy Walters, Mary Barth, Jean-Francois Lamarque, John Wong Atmospheric Chemistry Division,

Prediction of Future North American Air Quality Gabriele Pfister, Stacy Walters, Mary Barth, Jean-Francois Lamarque, John Wong Atmospheric Chemistry Division,
OMI HCHO columns Jan 2006Jul 2006 Policy-relevant background (PRB) ozone calculations for the EPA ISA and REA Zhang, L., D.J. Jacob, N.V. Smith-Downey,

OMI HCHO columns Jan 2006Jul 2006 Policy-relevant background (PRB) ozone calculations for the EPA ISA and REA Zhang, L., D.J. Jacob, N.V. Smith-Downey,
24 Global Ecology. Figure 24.2 A Record of Coral Reef Decline.

24 Global Ecology. Figure 24.2 A Record of Coral Reef Decline.
The Impact of Pine Beetle Kill on Monoterpene Emissions and Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation in Western North America Ashley R. Berg (CSU) and Colette.

The Impact of Pine Beetle Kill on Monoterpene Emissions and Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation in Western North America Ashley R. Berg (CSU) and Colette.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google