1. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 1 Land Use-Transportation Interaction, Urban Activity System Analysis Concepts & Methods

2. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 2 Land Use: Transportation Interaction, Urban Activity System Analysis Change in land use Change in trip generation Change in travel needs (demand) Change in transportation supply (added services, facilities) Change in accessibility Change (increase) in land values Transportation shapes land use Transportation serves land use

3. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 3 Interrelationship of: Land Use Transportation Environment

4. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 4 Land Use, Transportation & Environment Socio-Economic Outlook Land Use Module Transport Module Economic, Energy, Environmental Impact Module (s) Source: Bureau of Transport & Communications Economics, “Modelling the land use-transport-environment interaction”, occasional paper 107, Australian Government Publishing Services, Canberra (1993).

5. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 5 Change in Land Use (over Time) Zones Urban area  ( in residential units, commercial land use, industrial land use, retail land use, etc.)

6. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 6 Land Use Models These determine land use and estimate (forecast) change in land use (  land use). Examples of  Land Use: –Increase in residential units –Increase in commercial land use –Increase in industrial land use –Increase in retail land use

7. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 7 Land Use Models Explain/Predict:  in land use = function of: Accessibility to employment Land value % of available vacant land in a zone Transit accessibility Quality of water & sewer services Intensity of land use Measures of zone size

8. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 8 Land Use Model - cont’d  in land use = function of: Net density of development in the base year Employment by land use type Time & distance to highest valued land in the study area Degree pf zoning protection Etc.

9. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 9 Traffic Flow Q =  q m m Q = total link traffic flow q m = link traffic flow of vehicle type m NetworkLink

10. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 10 Traffic Impacts: Fuel Consumption & Emissions E (x) =  E m (X) q m m E m (x) = mean rate of pollutant emission or fuel consumption X (Avg. travel time per unit distance on a link (min/km)) X (Avg. speed (km/h) E m (X) (Fuel) E m (X) (Fuel)

11. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 11 Land Use -- Transportation System-- Environment Land Use Plan Transportation System Performance (v/c ratios, etc.) Calculate Fuel Consumption Calculate Emissions Calculate Noise Levels v = volume c = capacity

12. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 12 Land Use -- Transportation System-- Environment -- cont’d Urban Traffic Congestion Energy Consumption Emissions

13. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 13 Density Gradient Jobs Population CBDDistance from CBD

14. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 14 Bid Rent Bid Rent ($/sq m) CBDDistance Pressure for Growth Demand for Land Land Use Pattern Bid Rent Location of activities

15. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 15 Transportation as a Major Land Use 100 80 60 40 20 0 Open space Streets & highways Residential Manufacture Public bldgs Commercial 0 Distance from city centre 8 kms16 kms

16. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 16 Development Concepts

17. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 17 Urban Spatial Structure Note: LRT not shown Hull CBD Green Belt West Urban Community South Urban Community East Urban Community #17 #417 OTTAWA #416 Multinucleated Urban Region Major Highway Transitway Central Business District CBD

18. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 18 Land Use Estimation Procedure Available information Procedure Future estimate Existing Land Use data Unusable vacant land Unusable land Re-development plans Land use Usable vacant land Used land Future population and economic forecast (s) Total future land requirements Allocate new or additional land uses Vacant land Zoning and community plans

19. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 19 Demand for Land Use Space Requirements: Dimensioning the Land Use Design Four Step Pattern: 1.Review existing density characteristics and variation in these densities (by location such as central or suburban areas, by age of development, or by development type). 2.Obtain forecasts of or plans for future growth or decline of the land use category in question. –Projected population level => used as an index for residential space needs –Future employment estimates => lead to non-residential land use needs

20. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 20 Demand for Land Use – cont’d 3. Derive future space standards or projected densities based on a consideration of: –Existing densities –Local, regional and national trends –Planning principles and standards derived from goals, objectives, criteria. Space Standards are expressed as: –Sq.m/employee –Sq.m/household or D.U. (expressed for each of several types of dwellings) –Sq.m of retail space/$ of sales volume or per consumer in the trade area and so on. For schools, shopping centres, industrial parks, and the like, the planner would specify standards for min. site size and the number of facilities per 1000 population.

21. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 21 Demand for Land Use – cont’d 4. Apply standards to the projected levels of growth or decline. Total space = (growth or decline in activity) x (unit requirementspace requirement standard)

22. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 22 The Land Use-Transportation Model Population modelEconomic model Land use model Trip generation model Trip distribution model Modal split model Traffic assignment Model evaluation Calibration Phase on Base Yr. Data Origin destination data socio-economic data Transportation system characteristics Cont’d

23. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 23 Land Use-Transportation Model -- cont’d Land use projection Trip generation Trip distribution Modal split Assignment Model evaluation System evaluation Re-design future system Population projectionEconomic projections Forecast Phase on Design Yr. Data Transportation system specification Future network Choice

24. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 24 Land Use Allocation Land is allocated among alternative uses mainly in private markets with some public regulations. This results in cities developing mainly from location decisions by a large number of private developers and buyers

25. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 25 Land Use Models Land use models can serve 2 purposes: –Forecast total activities of an urban area –Allocate these activities among a predetermined set of sub-areas (zones) Over the years, numerous models have been developed and used Here, the example of accessibility is discussed

26. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 26 Model to Allocate Land Use Given : G t =Total Growth in population (to be allocated to various zones) jj j j j i a zone Gt Gi zone i i=1 zone i i=2 zone i i=3 Interzonal interaction

27. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 27 Model to Allocate Land Use – cont’d G i = population allocated to zone i G i  (Total accessibility of zone i) x (Available vacant land in zone i)  A i x L i A i =  A ij A ij = E j d ij A i =  E j /d ij b b j j i j jj j Note: A i  E j j A i   1 j d ij b Find:

28. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 28 Model to Allocate Land Use – cont’d Where, Ej = Total employment in zone j (an indicator of activity size) dij = distance between i & j (travel time can be used as well) b = an exponent Li = available vacant land in zone i (an indicator of holding capacity of zone i) Now, G i = G t A i L i = G t D i  A i L i  D i Where, D i is the development potential of zone i = A i x L i Note:If A i = 0, D i becomes zero If L i = 0, D i becomes zero - The higher the accessibility of a zone vis-à-vis other competing zone, the higher the share out of total population - The higher the available vacant land, the higher the share

29. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 29 Example 1 A small 3-zone city has the following characteristics: Zone Total Existing Population Available vacant land (hectares) 12000100 21000200 33000300 Total6000600

30. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 30 Example – cont’d From i\To j123 1268 2635 3854 Travel time (in minutes) are given below: An exponent of 2 can be assumed based on work done with other cities of the same size (i.e. b = 2)

31. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 31 Example – cont’d If the population of this city is expected to rise to 8000 persons, how will the population be distributed by zone? (i.e. increase in population = 2000). Assume that the total employment in each zone is proportional to the total existing population in that zone.

32. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 32 Solution Zone123  A ij = A i 1A ij = 2000/2 2 = 500 1000/6 2 = 283000/8 2 = 47575 22000/6 2 = 56=111= 120287 32000/8 2 = 31=40=188259 j ZoneAiAi LiLi DiDi 157510057,500 228720057,400 325930077,700 Total  D i =192,600 Multiply A i by L i : Calculate A ij & A i. Use (pop) j as a proxy for E j.

33. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 33 Solution – cont’d Calculate the relative development potential of each zone. ZoneDiDi D i /  D i G i (Increment) 157,5000.299598 257,4000.298596 377,7000.403806 Total192,6001.0002000

34. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 34 Example 2 A city consists of 4 zones of which zone 1 is a work location and three other zones are home places. The zones have the following characteristics Zone# of jobsPopulation Vacant land (hectares) 15000Nil 2-2500100 3-2500200 4-500020

35. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 35 Example – cont’d i \ j 1234 19 2269 3 369 41626319 A travel time matrix (minutes) for the city is as follows:

36. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 36 Example – cont’d The forecast for the city for 2015 is that the total population will increase by 2000 persons, and that 1000 more jobs will be added. (assume that the new jobs do not require additional land). An empirical study of this city showed that development took place (at zone level) in proportion to accessibility raised to 2.7 power and the land area available.

37. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 37 Example – cont’d Also, travel time exponent was found to be 2.2. That is: G i = (G t ) L i A i 2.7  L i A i 2.7  i  E j /T ij 2.2 ) What zone will grow and by how much, if: (a) Travel times remain constant, and all new jobs go to zone 1. (b) An improved transportation system reduces travel time by 5 minutes, and all new jobs go to zone 1. i j j

38. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 38 Solution i A i  E j /T ij 2.2 ) for zone 1 being j A i 16000 / (9) 2.2 +0+0+0 = 6000 / 125.7 =47.73 26000 / (26) 2.2 +0+0+0 = 6000 / 12974.63 36000 / (26) 2.2 +0+0+0 = 6000 / 1297 =4.63 46000 / (16) 2.2 +0+0+0 = 6000 / 445.72 =13.46 Step1: Calculate Ai’s. (Note: Total jobs = 5000+1000 =6000) No jobs in zones 2 to 4

39. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 39 Solution – cont’d Step 2: Calculate L i (A i ) 2.7 /  L i A i 2.7 i iA i 2.7 L i (A i ) 2.7 L i (A i ) 2.7 /  L i A i 2.7 134,098.6300 262.676.2670.08 362.6712,5340.17 41,117.9555,897.50.75  =74,698.5 1.00 i Note: Li is available vacant land

40. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 40 Solution – cont’d Step 3: Calculate Gi i G i = (G total ) ( L i (A i ) 2.7 /  L i A i 2.7 ) 22000 X 0.08 =160 32000 X 0.17 = 340 42000 X 0.75 = 1500 2000 Are holding capacities violated?

41. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 41 Solution – cont’d b) New travel time matrix i \ j 1234 14 2214 3 314 41121264

42. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 42 Solution – cont’d Calculate Ai’s: A i =  (E i / T ij 2.2 ) for zone 1 being j j Note: Total jobs in zone 1 (in the future = 5000+ 1000 = 6000) i A ij AiAi j = 1j = 2j = 3j = 4 16000 / (4) 2.2 000284.23 26000 / (21) 2.2 0007.40 36000 / (21) 2.2 0007.40 46000 / (11) 2.2 00030.70

43. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 43 Solution – cont’d iA i 2.7 L i (A i ) 2.7 L i (A i ) 2.7 /  L i A i 2.7 1 4.216 million 00 2222.2922,2290.04 3222.2944,4590.08 410357.95517,8980.88  =584,586 1.00 Calculate Li (A i ) 2.7 =  L i A ij 2.7 i

44. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 44 Solution – cont’d Calculate Gi i G i = (G total ) ( L i (A i ) 2.7 /  L i A i 2.7 ) 22000 X 0.04 =80 32000 X 0.08 = 160 42000 X 0.88 = 1760 2000 Are holding capacities violated? i

45. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 45 Comments Without transportation improvement: Li = 100 hectare Li = 200 hectare Li = 50 hectare  P = 160 persons  P = 340 persons  P = 1500 persons 2 1 3 4 16 min 26 min

46. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 46 Comments – cont’d With transportation improvement: 2 1 3 4 11 min 21 min  P =80  P =160  P =1760 In relative terms zone 4 becomes more attractive for development

47. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 47 Comments – cont’d If zone 1 has 20 Hectares that are vacant: iGiGi 12000 X 0.99 =1980 22000 X 0.0015 = 3 32000 X 0.0025 =5 42000 X 0.006 = 12 2000 Almost all new growth in population Holding capacity?

48. September 2005Urban Planning Carleton University 48 Location of Businesses: Accessibility Function Assumptions: New businesses consider the options available. Businesses do not move or fail Best location: a function of accessibility to population (i.e., markets, work force). A j p =  P i e -  cij where,A j p : is accessibility to population (for a business located in zone j P i : is population of zone i all i j i i i i i