1. The National Integrated Drought Information System: Colorado Basin NIDIS Project Implementation Team Roger S. Pulwarty (NOAA) Jim Verdin (USGS) Kelly Redmond (Western Regional Climate Center)

2. 2-Wk Soil Moisture Constructed Analogue Soil Model Medium-Range Fcst Palmer 4-mo Probabilities CPC Long-Lead Precip. Outlook Principal Drought Outlook Inputs Short-Range Fcst

3. 3 Climatic-Drought Contributors: A continuum Droughts span a large range of temporal and spatial scales Droughts are driven by a number of complex variables Public and private stakeholders (incl. other agencies): Present products in need of improved coordination and in need regional and local detail for early warning 30 DAYS 1 SEASON Heat Waves Floods Storm Track Variations Madden-Julian Oscillation El Niño-Southern Oscillation 3 YEARS 10 YEARS Decadal Variability Solar Variability Deep Ocean Circulation Greenhouse Gases 30 YEARS 100 YEARS SHORT-TERMINTERANNUALDECADE-TO- CENTURY — SCALES OF DROUGHT —

4. NIDIS VISION and GOALS “A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides users with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and the associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.” Public Law 109-430 (2006) “A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides users with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and the associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.” Public Law 109-430 (2006) (Drought Policy Commission Report (2000), Western Governors Report (04), NIDIS Implementation Plan (07))

5. NIDIS VISION and GOALS Implementation: Coordinate national drought monitoring and forecasting systemCoordinate national drought monitoring and forecasting system Creating a drought early warning information system (including assessment of potential impacts and triggering criteria)Creating a drought early warning information system (including assessment of potential impacts and triggering criteria) Providing an interactive drought information delivery system for products and services—including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)Providing an interactive drought information delivery system for products and services—including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc) Designing mechanisms for improving information to support preparedness and planningDesigning mechanisms for improving information to support preparedness and planning

6. Monitoring and forecastingMonitoring and forecasting Risk assessment: Indicators and triggersRisk assessment: Indicators and triggers Communication and PreparednessCommunication and Preparedness Drought PortalDrought Portal

7. Proposed NIDIS Drought Early Warning Systems Southeast

8. Proposed NIDIS Drought Early Warning Coordinated reservoir operations: Inter- and Intra-basin transfers Ecosystem health/services Southeast

9. Kremmling Lake Powell Lake Mead

11. Key issues What climate and drought-related triggers are used for management and response seasonal operations, long-term planning (watershed, industry, state, county)?What climate and drought-related triggers are used for management and response seasonal operations, long-term planning (watershed, industry, state, county)? How can we most effectively develop and coordinate information for early warning (onset, duration, demise, impacts) into drought plans?How can we most effectively develop and coordinate information for early warning (onset, duration, demise, impacts) into drought plans? E.g. Exceptional Drought Operation Plan, Interim Operating Plan, Power needs etc? Proposed NIDIS Pilot: Partnerships to maintain a regional dialog on drought, climate and water resourcesProposed NIDIS Pilot: Partnerships to maintain a regional dialog on drought, climate and water resources

12. Interagency and Interstate NIDIS Team and Implementation Plan (June 07)Interagency and Interstate NIDIS Team and Implementation Plan (June 07) U.S. Drought Portal rollout (October 07)U.S. Drought Portal rollout (October 07) Identify and review NOAA (and other) cross-line activities in support of NIDISIdentify and review NOAA (and other) cross-line activities in support of NIDIS (NIDIS Executive Council)(NIDIS Executive Council) Satellite-based drought monitoring (Feb08), Climate projections over the Colorado Basin (Fall 07)Satellite-based drought monitoring (Feb08), Climate projections over the Colorado Basin (Fall 07) Designing drought early warning systems for the Southeast (ACF-ACF) April 08Designing drought early warning systems for the Southeast (ACF-ACF) April 08 Planning meeting: Upper Colorado Basin (down to Lake Mead)Planning meeting: Upper Colorado Basin (down to Lake Mead) National Status of Drought Early Warning Systems (June 2008 Kansas City)National Status of Drought Early Warning Systems (June 2008 Kansas City) Upper Colorado Basin Workshop 1-2 October, 2008Upper Colorado Basin Workshop 1-2 October, 2008 Where are we?

13. Year 1Year 1 What exists. Gap analysis, coordination of existing informationWhat exists. Gap analysis, coordination of existing information Key players-Existing planning processesKey players-Existing planning processes What partnerships and actions are needed (to improve information development and flow?What partnerships and actions are needed (to improve information development and flow? Year 2. Implementation of a Drought Early Warning System (across timescales from a season multi-year, longer term trends):Year 2. Implementation of a Drought Early Warning System (across timescales from a season multi-year, longer term trends): Improving coordination, feedback into “Colorado Basin” Drought Portal:Improving coordination, feedback into “Colorado Basin” Drought Portal:

14. Implementing the NIDIS: Pilots Applications Research Prediction Monitoring Coordinating federal, state, and local drought-related activities (e.g. within watersheds and states) Engaging research, management and planning communities: Stakeholder defined measures of drought and triggers for decision making

15. Risk Assessments Prediction Monitoring Impact Mitigation Proactive Planning Improved Adaptation? Engaging research, management and planning communities: Stakeholder defined measures of drought and triggers for decision making Engaging the preparedness communities Integrating Tools: e.g. Drought Portal Coordinating federal, state, and local drought-related activities (e.g., within watersheds and states) Identifying and diffusing innovative strategies for drought risk assessment, communication and preparedness NIDIS Process Model: Implementing NIDIS Pilots

16. Western RCC Desert Research Institute RISA – Pacific Northwest RISA – California RISA – Arizona - CLIMAS High Plains RCC University of Nebraska Midwestern RCC Illinois State Water Survey International Research Institute Northeast RCC Cornell University Climate Prediction Center, Climate Services Division National Climatic Data Center Southeast RCC S.C. Dept. of Natural Resources RISA – Florida Southern RCC Louisiana State University National Center Regional Center RISA’s States Participating In Two Regions RISA – Western Water Climate Diagnostic Center Pacific ENSO Applications Center RISA – New Hampshire NWS RHQ NOAA & NOAA-Supported Centers

17. Thanks!Thanks! Slide 18

18. U.S. Drought Portal Home Page www.drought.gov Key Clearinghouse Functions: Credible, Accessible, Timely Drought Information to answer Where are drought conditions now? Does this event look like other events? How is the drought affecting me? Will the drought continue? Where can I go for help?

19. NOAA Western Governors Association USGS Dept. of Interior (BoR) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers USDA (NRCS, ARS, CSREES) NASA Indigenous Waters Network Regional Climate Centers National Drought Mitigation Center Association of State Climatologists Cornell University New Mexico State University Rutgers University South Dakota State University University of Oklahoma University of South Carolina University of Washington The Weather Channel NIDIS Implementation Team Partners (to date): www.drought.gov New: Duke Power U. Georgia Others?