1. Panut Manoonvoravong Bureau of research development and hydrology Department of water resources

2.  This model was funded by World Bank in May 2009 for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) to assist the Thai Government to develop policy tools for  adapting to climate change impacts on the water and natural resources of the Mekong River Basin  building local knowledge and capacity on climate change

3. The pilot area for the HAE model development project was set in Kong-Chi-Mun the Northeast of Thailand basins (the sub-basin areas of lower Mekong tributaries). The models are required to assess the impact of climate change on: a) the hydrologic regime, b) water usage, c) agricultural production and d) socio-economic conditions.

5. Topography

7. The ECHAM climate model has been developed from the ECMWF atmospheric model. It provided a future climate scenario data of a spatial resolution approximates to about 2.8º longitude/latitude and the time-step of 24 minutes. The model condition based on the emission scenario of IPCC SRES A2 & B2.

9.  To provide the future climate scenario data based on ECHAM4 GCM’s future Climate data and the emission scenarios of IPCC SRES A2 & B2.  6 variables used in the HAE model are  precipitation (mm)  max & min temperature (Degree Celsius)  solar radiation (MJ/m2)  Relative humidity  Wind speed (m/s)

10.  Future climate projection using PRECIS model  Precipitation  PRECIS vs. Observation  Future Precipitation Change A2 & B2  Other Meteorological Parameters  PRECIS vs. Observation  Future Change A2 & B2  Evapotranspiration

11. Baseline PRECIS data Observation in term of climatology To find the bias adjustment coefficient for PRECIS data comparison Bias adjusted climate scenario data PRECIS’ baseline & future climate scenario data HAE model To apply for the future climate scenario data

12.  13 observation stations of TMD were selected to compare with PRECIS simulation

13. PRECIS Observed To Interpolate into each grid an approach in which variable bias adjustment was applied to the PRECIS data depending upon the ranking of the PRECIS simulated data amongst all rain-day events in a particular month 0.2  Grid

14. The approach developed was based on monthly corrections to PRECIS data determined from the differences between the mean monthly observed and PRECIS simulated data at the 13 TMD stations. By using adjusted PRECIS meteorological data, Daily potential evapotranspiration was calculated using the FAO Penman method. Data were calculated on each of the PRECIS grids.

15. Summary of future climate change in Kong-Chi-Mun basin

16. Summary of future climate scenarios (Increase)No change(Decrease)

21. SWAT Model Time Series Routed Mean Daily Flows at Selected Locations Associated Rating Curve Associated Flood Depth Flood Depth-Area Table For Location Associated Flood Area and Duration Annual Loss Calculations

22. Data requirement to estimate yield and crop water uses by DSSAT crop model 2.1 Weather data 2.2 Soil data 2.3 Crops and crop management practices Time Frame Baseline (BS, 1980-2009) Future A2 (2050s, 2040-2069) Future B2 (2050s, 2040-2069)

23. Data requirement to estimate yield and crop water uses by DSSAT crop model 2.1 Weather data 2.2 Soil data 2.3 Crops and crop management practices

24. Agriculture Flood DamageHydropower Time Series Net Production Values Time Series Flood Damages Direct/Indirect Time Series Net Production Values Present Value of Production Annual Damages Present Value of Production Present Value Adaptation and Mitigation Costs Benefit : Cost Ratios of Adaptation and Mitigation Measures Revised Present Value Production and Damages with Mitigation