1. AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway Faroes Scot- land Northeast Atlantic Better predictions for better adaptation Bogi Hansen, Faroe Marine Research Institute

2. The Earth Global climate change Warming = Energy in – Energy out Regional climate change Windsand currentsmove energy What if they change ?

3. NOAA Mean sea surface temperature 5ºC 60º 5ºC

4. Iceland Scot- land Nordic Seas Arctic Ocean Faroes Cooling Greenland North Atlantic Greenland-Scotland Ridge Overflow

5. Cold water from the Arctic sinks and spreads throughout the World Ocean 500 – 1000 years Labrador Sea The ”Great Conveyor Belt” (MOC, THC) Antarctic Cooling Increasing salinity Freshwater IPCC-2007: it is very likely that the North Atlantic MOC will slow down during the 21st century

6. Measurements

7. AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 Volume transport of Atlantic inflow Inflowing Atlantic water (millions m 3 /second) No significant trend Iceland-Faroe inflow since 1992 Greenland-Iceland inflow since 1994 Faroe-Shetland inflow since 1992

8. Labrador Sea convection Overflow and Atlantic inflow did probably NOT weaken 1948-2005 But, Labrador Sea convection has been weak since mid-1990s

9. Projected surface warming 2080-2099 for A2 scenario (IPCC 2007) 2 – 3 ºC warming ºC

10. Warming 2091-2100 at 200-500 m depth according to AR4 climate models (Yin et al., 2011) Average of 19 climate models Cooling One model > 3°C warming Another model > 2°C warming “No” change MOC model uncertainty remains high in CMIP5 climate models

11. With warming, fish stocks tend to move towards colder areas But, changing currents may be more important Whither the fish ?

12. Artist:Glynn Gorick The marine ecosystem King Cod

13. What will happen to King Cod ? Temperature and currents Phytoplankton Air temperature RainWind Light Clouds

14. Ocean acidification CO 2 H 2 CO 3 HCO 3 + H + - CO 3 + 2H + -- H + + CO 3 HCO 3 - --

15. The living conditions for fish in the Northeast Atlantic will, no doubt, change dramatically But, HOW ?