1. U.S. Elections in 2014 Theda Skocpol Harvard University

2. ELECTION 2O14 – Another Midterm Rout for Democrats  Loss of 7 to 9 U.S. Senate seats, with leadership switch to GOP.  Loss of X House seats, with GOP margin going from 233/199 to 244/184 (with a number of seats yet to be resolved).  Loss of key governor contests – challenges to vulnerable GOP incumbents in Florida, Maine, and Michigan, plus loss of Democratic governorships in Maryland, Illinois, and Massachusetts. GOP now has 31 governors.  Historically large losses in state legislative chambers, the pipelines for the future.  Hardly any white Democrats left in the South.

3. What Happened?  Nationwide voter turnout very low, especially among constituencies that leaned Democratic in 2008 and 2012. But overall turnout was not unusually low in most competitive states.  Republicans made some gains – especially among non-college- educated white men and women.  Republicans voters were revved up and turned out at especially high rates in states with competitive Senate and governor races.  Democrats did not offer a national message and they downplayed President Obama (who has recently had poor poll ratings). They tried to run state-focused races. In most places, this did not work.  Democrats ran poor campaigns in Iowa and Colorado.

8. PARTISAN HOUSE VOTE MARGINS IN 2014, COMPARED TO 2010