1. Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs): Overview, Plans and Early Impressions of a Proposed High-Impact Weather Forecasting Paradigm Lans P. Rothfusz, Travis M. Smith, Christopher Karstens, Greg Stumpf, Russell Schneider, and David Novak NWA Conference 2015

2. FACETs and NWA Conferences 2013 – FACETs, the idea. 2014 – FACETs, the plan (yawn). 2015 – FACETs, beginning execution of the plan. (Here we go!) 2

3. FACETs Is... A proposed reinvention of NOAA’s current teletype-era, deterministic (binary), product- centric paradigm. Borne out of NSSL/CIMMS research and Weather Ready Nation activities. Focused on entire forecast/warning process.

4. FACETs Is... A continuous stream of calibrated, high-res, probabilistic hazard information (PHI) extending from days to within minutes of event - for all Environmental Threats. 4 Adapted from Lazrus (NCAR) Time Space Information Continuum

5. The PHI Continuum Example of the envisioned PHI continuum spanning the temporal/spatial scales from national centers to local offices. 5

6. The “delivery mechanism” for emerging convective class models and tools - and their resulting probabilistic guidance (e.g., Warn on Forecast). FACETs Is... Rotation track prediction Valid: 2100-2315 UTC) Probability ~40 min lead time? Tornado starts: 2143 UTC Tornado starts: 2143 UTC

7. Multimedia, multi-point enabling. FACETs Is…

8. FACETs Is... Optimized for user-specific decision-making through comprehensive integration of social/behavioral/economic sciences. A framework to focus R&D activities. 8

9. There is a Plan... June 2014 Workshop: How do we get from current system to FACETs? 46 distinct projects identified! 16 physical science 14 software development 23 social/behavioral/economic science Science and Strategic Implementation Plan (SSIP) created. 9

10. “Probability of What?” Project USWRP 3-year funding. 11 multi-disciplinary sub-projects. Addresses early phases of the FACETs SSIP. Conveyance of uncertainty through calibrated, model- derived, PHI for severe convective phenomena, including flash flooding. Goals Accelerate transition of PHI to ops (SPC and WPC) by 2018. The NOAA-NWS Storm Prediction Center: Future Plans and Challenges in Pursuit of a Weather Ready Nation (Schneider et al.) – Plenary IV Set stage for PHI in NWS local offices & America’s Weather Industry partners. 10

11. PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 11 A1: Event Definition Across a Wide Range of Scales (NSSL, SPC, WPC) Definition of “the event” consistently across space and time scales (convective outlook scale down to the proposed warning scales associated with Warn-on- Forecast).

12. PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 12 A2: Calibrated probabilistic guidance for severe weather hazards (SPC) Develop/Refine calibrated guidance for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds during the Day 1 period from the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system & the SPC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity (SSEO).

13. PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 13 A3: Calibrated probabilistic guidance for flash flood hazards (WPC) WPC will redefine the Extended Rainfall Outlook as the (calibrated) probability of flash flooding within 40 km of a point. Early exploration of Hazard Services use for heavy rainfall will also be pursued.

14. PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 14 A4: High-resolution guidance from MYRORSS (CIMMS, NSSL) Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely-Sensed Storms (MYRORSS): A 15+ year reanalysis of WSR-88D and environment data resulting in distributions of storm behavior probabilities.

15. PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 15 B1: PHI prototype tool rapid-prototyping improvements (CIMMS, NSSL) Rapid prototyping of forecaster interface for generating PHI and sharing hazard grids based on interrogation of observations and numerical model output.

16. PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 16 B2: Pro-FLASH (NSSL, CIMMS) A hydrologic component for PHI related to flash floods and floods, based on the Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) project

17. PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 17 B3: PHI in Hazard Services (GSD, NSSL, CIMMS) The AWIPS-II Hazard Services built to create PHI for severe convective phenomena and lay the groundwork for probabilistic flash flood guidance (using pro-FLASH).

18. PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 18 B4: Understanding forecaster’s formulation of PHI (U. Akron, NSSL, CIMMS) Human factors researchers identify areas of PHI Prototype Tool improvement.

19. PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 19 B5: Verification of high-resolution probabilistic severe weather guidance (MDL, GSD) A gridded warning verification system will be designed and tested to provide more meaningful measures of the goodness of severe weather warnings.

20. PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 20 C1: Baseline of Public Responsiveness to Uncertainty in Forecasts (OU/CRCM, NSSL) Establishment of an independent, scientifically-defensible “baseline” (benchmark) measure of public responsiveness to NWS warnings, watches, and advisories under the current paradigm. A system for regular (social science) evaluations thereafter.

21. PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 21 C2: User’s Interpretation, Decision Making, and Response to PHI Presentation Formats (U. Akron, CIMMS, NSSL) Human factors research to understand human interpretation of and response to PHI in guiding their weather decision making.

22. FACETs-Related Presentations Building a Database of Flash Flood Observations Using Twitter (Smith et al.) – Poster AP-58 Emergency Manager Severe Weather Information Needs and Use of Experimental Warning Information (LaDue et al.) – Concurrent II: Social Science Decision-Making with Automated Probabilistic Guidance in the 2015 Hazardous Weather Testbed Probabilistic Hazard Information Experiment (Karstens et al.) - Plenary III New Tools for Flash Flood Forecasting in the National Weather Service (Gourley et al.) – Plenary VII Towards Hazard Services Recommenders for Flash Flood Forecasting (Clark et al.) – Poster BP-17. Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Estimates with Ground-based Radar Networks (Kirstetter et al.) – Poster CP-27. New Verification Techniques for FACETs: What Do False Alarm Area and Lead Time Really Mean in the Realm of Probabilistic Hazard Information? (Stumpf et al.) - Poster CP-52 Probabilistic Hazard Information Processing System (PHIPS): Rapid Generation and Blending of Probabilistic Forecasts for Severe Convective Hazards (Karstens et al.) - Poster CP-24 22

23. Summary FACETs: An over-arching reinvention of NOAA’s hazardous weather forecasting paradigm has begun. 3-yr R&D Project for R2O (to SPC and WPC) underway. 11 multi-disciplinary projects. lans.rothfusz@noaa.gov 23