1. Transformation Technologies in Transportation Mark R. Norman, P.E. Director, TRB Program Development & Strategic Initiatives

2. Transformational, or “disruptive” technologies, are those that can be expected to completely displace the status quo, forever changing the way we live and work. TRB Hot Topic: TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES

3. Internet, personal computer, email, smartphone, GPS, big data TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES: General Examples

4. Connected/automated vehicles, shared vehicles, advanced versions of on-demand shared ride and micro-transit services, NextGen, unmanned aerial systems, cog in “internet-of-things” TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES: Transportation

5. Key 2015 TRB Activities: Transformational Technologies EU-US Symposium “Towards Road Transport Automation” April 14-15, 2015; Washington, DC Automated Vehicle Symposium: July 20-24, 2015; Ann Arbor, MI Impacts of Automated Vehicles on State and Local Transportation Agencies (NCHRP 20-102) Review of USDOT Report on Connected Vehicle Initiative Communications Systems Deployment UTC Symposium on Connected/Automated Vehicles, November 4-5, 2015; Washington, DC Urban Mobility Systems: TRB Policy Study (December 2015)

6. Virginia is a Leader! Virginia Tech & UVA I-395 Demonstration (October 20, 2015) VDOT Lead for State Pooled Fund Study

7. Connected & Automated Vehicles: Some Points (& Counterpoints) From TRB Conferences, Meetings, and Research Projects

8. Automated Vehicles Will Be Available to the Public by 2020

9. Automated Vehicles Will Be NOT Available to the Public That Soon

10. Automated Vehicles Will Be the Biggest Transformational Change Since the Invention of the Automobile 4

11. Automated Vehicles May NOT Significantly Change Transportation Source: James Anderson, Rand 5

12. This Will be the Next Federal Interstate- Type Program 6

13. Not! Others Will be Leading the Way 7

14. These Vehicles Must be Connected with the Infrastructure to be Successful 8

15. Automated Vehicles Can Succeed on Their Own 9 Something everywhere vs. everything somewhere

16. Connected-Automated Vehicles Will Eliminate 80 Percent of Serious Accidents 10

17. The Potential Safety Impacts of These Vehicles Can’t be Taken for Granted 11

18. Connected – Automated Vehicles Will Eliminate Congestion 12

19. Traffic Congestion Will Remain a Serious Problem – And Might Get Worse 13

20. Connected-Automated Vehicles Will Be Better for the Environment & Land Use 14

21. These Vehicles Will Negatively Affect the Environment & Land Use 15

22. Will Enable Data Driven Solutions 14

23. Big Data Will Create Its Own Issues 15 Collection, sharing, and analysis Ownership Privacy and security Reserved spectrum

24. Some Things We Can Agree On! The truth lies somewhere in the middle We have more questions than answers – need research! Need to get started

25. Between Public and Private Mobility: Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled Services -A Policy Study-

26. What Are Technology-Enabled Services? Bike-sharing Car-sharing Ridesharing/Transportation Network Companies Uber, Lyft, and Sidecar Microtransit Bridj, Leap, Chariot, Loup

27. What is a TNC? Transportation Network Company Most common are Uber, Lyft, and Sidecar Allows a passenger to request and pay for a ride via a smartphone app

28. Transportation Network Companies: Common Model Most common (and contentious) version connects riders with individuals driving their own personal vehicles TNCs take a percentage (generally 15- 30%) of each fare Driver keeps the rest

29. Rise of the TNCs Uber (launched in 2010) $50B valuation 58 countries, 300+ cities 160,000 drivers More Uber cars in NYC than taxis Lyft $2B valuation 65 cities in the U.S. Has not released other numbers Sidecar 10 cities in the U.S.

30. Impact on Travel Volume? Too early to tell San Francisco Survey: 1/3 of TNC users would have taken transit About 8% induced travel Much of data is in private sector

31. Access & Equity: Concerns Potential equity concerns for: Unbanked populations: TNCs require a credit card to be on file. Those without smart phones Disabled users. TNCs are not required to have wheelchair accessible vehicles.

32. Access & Equity: Potential Upsides TNCs also improve access for some populations Many paratransit users can use TNCs instead with far faster pickup times Paratransit services are a major cost for transit properties Many cities/neighborhoods do not have readily available street-hail cabs

33. Safety : Driver Background Checks Taxi industry: Fingerprint drivers Uber and Lyft: Run checks with name, birthday, SSN, and driver’s license number Which is better? Currently a (spirited) policy debate Little analytical evidence of the effectiveness of either method

34. Safety: Information Availability Passengers have: driver’s name, photo, rating, car type, and license plate number Drivers have: passenger name and photo (if passenger uploaded one), and have recourse in the event of an incident (such as a bar pickup getting sick) Trip is tracked from passenger request to driver match to passenger pickup to passenger drop-off. Passenger is emailed a detailed receipt.

35. Safety Issues: DUIs Many claims about Uber/Lyft/Sidecar reducing DUIs Correlation between arrival in a city and reduction in DUIs, especially among those under 40 No rigorous analysis yet Could be due to a combination of factors

36. Labor Issues TNC employees currently classified as contractors (“IRS1099” employees) Flexibility to work or not, set hours All expenses fall to driver Vehicle Phone/data plan Health insurance Other

37. Labor Issues: Rulings to Date June 2015: California Labor Commission ruled one Uber driver is an employee Uber has appealed Other lawsuits are pending. Employee vs. contractor ruling could have significant effects on business models of TNCs

38. Shared Vehicles: What is the Ultimate Vision? Beyond a ride-hailing service Changing the car ownership model Providing critical first-mile/last-mile access Revolutionizing carpooling & transit Leveraging driverless vehicle technologies

39. Challenges to Public Agencies Technology Tsunami Facilitate Innovation vs. Public Safety Revenue Impacts Taxi medallions Parking Traffic Fines Investments in Traditional Transit Adapting Infrastructure & Land Use

40. TRB Policy Study “Between Public and Private Mobility: Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled Services” Summarizes state of the practice Recommendations for policy- makers, planners, and legislators Release in late 2015

41. Are our traditional research processes nimble enough to prepare public agencies in an age of transformational technologies? Final Question: Transformational Technologies & Research

42. Questions? Mark Norman mnorman@nas.edu