1. Using Survey Research to Assess Political Risk June 2004

2. External Affairs Vice Presidency Why use survey research to understand political risk?  Survey research objectively and independently uncovers opportunities and identifies red flags, obstacles and risks.  Survey research can assess risk among a range of stakeholders from opinion leaders to the general population.  Survey research allows you to track attitudes in order to ‘have a finger on the pulse’ of movement of risk

3. External Affairs Vice Presidency Which research methodology?  Should be chosen on a case by case basis that reflects the challenge your project/program faces.  When assessing risk, in all likelihood the environment is sensitive. This must be taken into account when choosing a research approach.  The gen. pop.’s views may be best gathered through a combination of qualitative and quantitative research.

4. External Affairs Vice Presidency Conducting research  Topics are probably sensitive when there is political risk to consider. Hence, use independent firms to measure attitudes. Do not use firms that are aligned with a political party.  Choose a firm that has expertise in the area of policy and is issue oriented. Exploration will require a nuanced approach.

5. External Affairs Vice Presidency World Bank examples: Survey programs that have yielded data on risk  Institution: Global poll  Region: East Asia review  Country: Client surveys  Project: Ghana urban water restructuring  Project: Albania HIV/AIDS

6. External Affairs Vice Presidency Global Poll  Methodology: More than 2500 interviews with stakeholders around the globe in 48 countries.  Cost: $1,000,000  Phone/in-person interviews  Outside firm hired to conduct research globally.  Bank team deeply involved in the design, analysis, reporting

7. External Affairs Vice Presidency Views on globalization  Do you think that globalization is very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad for our country? Latin America/Caribbean East Asia/Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Middle East/North Africa Europe/Central Asia Industrial countries | 10050050100 No answer responses not plotted Values of 5% or less are plotted but not labeled  Very good  Somewhat good  Somewhat bad  Very bad

8. External Affairs Vice Presidency Most important development priority  What is the single most important development priority facing our country today? East Asia/ Pacific Europe/ Central Asia Latin America/ Caribbea n Middle East/ North Africa South Asia Sub- Saharan Africa Growth, the economy294739 2432 Poverty reduction161018121925 Improving education211114171917 Reducing corruption, improving governance 12 818167 Infrastructure development 1044513 * represents a value of less than 0.5%

9. External Affairs Vice Presidency What should be the two main objectives of Bank  What do you think the main objective of the World Bank’s work should be in our country a ? East Asia/ Pacific Europe/ Central Asia Latin America/ Caribbea n Middle East/ North Africa South Asia Sub- Saharan Africa Industrial countries Poverty reduction50303836455139 Growth, the economy376426382834 Infrastructure development1613618221814 Improving education14991315148 Knowledge Bank10 12106119 * represents a value of less than 0.5% Columns total more than 100% because respondents were prompted to give multiple answers (a) In industrial countries we asked about developing countries, not own country

10. External Affairs Vice Presidency Bank’s current performance in poverty reduction  On a 1 to 10 scale, how good a job does the Bank do helping our country a reduce poverty? East Asia/Pacific Latin America/Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Europe/Central Asia Middle East/North Africa Industrial countries 050100 No answer Values of 5% or less are plotted but not labeled (a) In industrial countries we asked about developing countries, not own country  Good job  Average  Good job (7-10)  Average (5-6)  Poor (1-4)

11. External Affairs Vice Presidency Bank’s current performance in building climate for investment  On a 1 to 10 scale, how good a job does the Bank do helping our country a build the climate for investment, growth and jobs? Latin America/Caribbean East Asia/Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East/North Africa Europe/Central Asia South Asia Industrial countries 050100 No answer Values of 5% or less are plotted but not labeled (a) In industrial countries we asked about developing countries, not own country  Good job  Average  Good job (7-10)  Average (5-6)  Poor (1-4)

12. External Affairs Vice Presidency CONCLUSIONS What shapes opinion of the Bank? Perceptions of the US’s influence on country Whether the Bank acts irresponsibly in its development efforts Whether the Bank’s recommended economic reforms hurt more people than they help Bank’s performance, particularly in poverty reduction Bank’s perceived relevance Opinion about globalization Perceptions of arrogance in Latin America and the Middle East In South Asia, opinion about whether enough money is being spent on foreign assistance

13. External Affairs Vice Presidency East Asia Review: Methodology  90 qualitative interviews (w/small quant. component)  Sample chosen by Bank and independent consultant; names received from several sources (Bank, corporate consultant, networking through think tanks and other organizations)  Half from region including Japan; half from outside (US, Europe, Australia)  Prominent academics, senior govt. and former govt. officials; some private sector, civil society, media  Majority of interviews conducted in person  Non-attributable basis

14. External Affairs Vice Presidency Issues in More Depth  Nearly half of East Asia respondents named stability and security when asked to identify the most pressing issues  More than half identified economic growth  East Asian respondents spoke frequently about social and economic disparity  Also environment, corruption and disease but mostly in terms of impact on stability and growth

15. External Affairs Vice Presidency Perceptions of World Bank  East Asian respondents regard the Bank as closely aligned with the US “It’s the voice of America.” (Indonesian business executive)  Many East Asian respondents believe that an insufficient number of Asian voices at the Bank influence policy, vision, direction  Some East Asian observers feel that the Bank is moving in the right direction but losing relevance as the region moves forward

16. External Affairs Vice Presidency Perceptions of World Bank  Many East Asian respondents believe that perceptions of the institution are mixed because: “East Asians do not really understand the World Bank and how it works.” (Thai politician)

17. External Affairs Vice Presidency Perceptions of World Bank  While the Bank is seen as trying to do more to meet the needs of East Asia, it is still considered somewhat out of touch and isolated  View is that Bank needs to be more in tune with East Asian way of thinking, and must consider how it works within the constraints of its primary clients – governments

18. External Affairs Vice Presidency Desired Role for World Bank  The Bank’s work needs to better reflect the vision that East Asians have for themselves  Findings indicate that this means potentially, a change in language, approach and even focus

19. External Affairs Vice Presidency India Client Survey  More than 500 interviews  Paper surveys sent to World Bank generated data base of stakeholders  Follow-up calls made to ensure high rate of responsiveness  Qualitative research conducted simultaneously

20. External Affairs Vice Presidency India Client Survey: Development Priority Please identify which one of these you consider the first (second) most important development priority?” (Respondents chose from a list.)

21. External Affairs Vice Presidency India Client Survey: Importance vs. Effectiveness Sector Analysis

22. External Affairs Vice Presidency India Client Survey: Weakness Which one of the following do you identify as the Bank’s single greatest weakness in its work in India?” (Respondents chose from a list.)

23. External Affairs Vice Presidency “In your opinion, what should be the level of involvement of the World Bank in India’s development strategies?” (Respondents chose from a list.) India Client Survey: Level of Bank Involvement

24. External Affairs Vice Presidency India Client Survey: Personal Relationships

25. External Affairs Vice Presidency Ghana PSP in water restructuring: Research findings may provide political cover: Quantitative data not yet in, but focus groups begin to paint a picture…  General population cares about access to clean water  General population strongly supports international private sector involvement and presence in Ghana  General population thinks costs will go up but accept this because they expect quality and service to increase as well  World Bank: focus groups showed a fairly vocal level of animosity toward World Bank.

26. External Affairs Vice Presidency Albania HIV/AIDS: Assessing levels of risk  National polling program to develop in-depth understanding of gen. pop.’s and opinion leaders’ attitudes toward HIV/AIDS.  Methodology included in-depth interviews with elites; 16 focus groups with general population; national representative survey (n=1000)

27. External Affairs Vice Presidency

34. Final Thoughts  You can make educated guesses about risks in a country or you can use research to generate empirical data that provides clear evidence of risk (or lack thereof.)  There is probably either more or less risk than you expect – make sure your hypotheses about risk are finely tuned so the research can be as targeted as possible.