1. Adaptation to Climate Change: The Argentine experience Vicente Barros UBA (AIACC LA 26), Hernan Carlino (Secretary of Environment and Sustainable Development) and Daniel Perczyk (Di Tella Institute) Project : Regional and Environmental Agenda for Governability and Sustainable Development

2. Precipitation change

3. Annual precipitation trend1960-2000 mm / year

4. This is an important change in climate conditions that already occurred It could provide some experience To see Adaptation or not Where and in which sectors? How successful was ?

5. FIRST CASE Isohyets in mm black : 1950-1969 red: 1980-1999 1980-1999

6. Adaptation to new conditions AGRICULTURE INFRASTRUCTURE Successful Still to come

7. Wetter conditions in the central part of Argentina, together with a rapid adoption of new technologies allowed the expansion to the west of the agriculture frontier This adaptation was autonomous, done by the private sector, and stated even before the advice of the agriculture experts The features of this adaptation, autonomy and speed, were favored by the short cycle of the agriculture activity, mainly cereals and other grains

8. Autonomous adaptation - Resulted from massive individual options - It came after the change It could lead to wrong decisions (In the long term) if the change ends being transitory In this case: deforestation of the Monte

9. Activities with long-term implications Require planning Example: Infrastructure It should be designed for the future

10. In this case: The adaptation was delayed: problems in roads, bridges, etc. Best example is the Picasa Lagoon: railroad and a main road was cut for many years Lack of awareness in the technical spheres, and even in the scientific community

11. A different reaction: The largest discharges in the Paraná (Jaime & Menéndez, INA)

12. Figura1: Inundación durante El Niño 1997-98. En celeste agua permanente y en azul la inundada (Proyecto estratégico UBA) Figura1: Inundación durante El Niño 1997-98. En celeste agua permanente y en azul la inundada (Proyecto estratégico UBA) El Niño 1997-98 flood (UBA Project on floods)

13. A public adaptation policy was implemented after the great floods of the great tributaries of the Plata River during 1982/83 and 1992 Structural measures (defenses), and an Alert System was organized and improved since then. As a result of this adaptation policy, damages of the 1997/1998 flood were considerable lower ( 700 M U$D) than in 1982/83 event (1300 U$D)

14. What was different in this case? There were : Public Technical International and Political AWARENESS about El Niño

15. Other case with No important or adequate responses

16. Number of events with precipitation greater than 100 mm in no more than two days (16 stations of the Center and East of Argentina)

17. Precipitation over 150 mm: rate between the annual frequency of the 1983/2002 and the 1959/1978 periods

18. There were not enough AWARENESS In the Public Not even between hydrologists and climatologists About the unnamed cause of this problem

19. Main Conclusion: Awareness of climate changes seem have been determinant for public and private responses It may be other conditionings: social, economic, structural or even cultural barriers

20. Floods risk maps 2070 How results of AIACC Projects will result in adaptation to Future Changes?

21. Adaptation to Global change is an important issue in the construction of the Official Argentine environmental Agenda Official Argentine environmental Agenda In which awareness should be a key element In which awareness should be a key element

22. Due to Climate change Some Public Policies has to evolve from the estimation of risk to the management of uncertainties. This implies an economic cost as planning has to assume More costs Or more risks

23. Investment to reduce uncertainty is likely more profitable than investment in infrastructure alone This means investment in climate change research is highly profitable Particularly, it is necessary to reduce future uncertainty: better climate scenarios