1. ORCA simulations - First steps J. Brunner 06/09/2012

2. Detector Hexagonal layout a la IceCube 37 lines, distance 20m 25 ANTARES storeys  z = 4.5m Equipped volume V = 108x120x120 m 3 M = 1.5 Mton

3. MC samples Neutrinos (genneu) NC/CC, e, µ 1 GeV - 1 TeV, Bartol flux muons from Mupage km3 (µ) + geasim ; 100 kHz flat noise – Is diffusion really needed here ? 2T3 trigger Reconstruction & Event selection – BBfit, inter-floor causality 80  30nsec – 1L & ML as for ANTARES oscillation search

4. Selection of clean neutrino sample Standard ANTARES BBfit selection does not work (example MultiLine events) µ CC ; µ NC e CC ; e NC

5. arXiv:1205.7071, Fig. 1 Coded as suggested in hep-ph/9808270 Earth profile: 2 density approximation Mantle density 5 g/cm3 Core density 12 g/cm3 Oscillation Probabilities with matter effects

6. arXiv:1205.7071, Fig. 1 Earth profile: Full PREM model From interface to GLOBES Work at APC/IPHC ongoing Courtesy : A. Meregalia IPHC

7. Oscillation Probabilities with matter effects arXiv:1205.7071, Fig. 2 Earth profile: Full PREM model From interface to GLOBES Work at APC/IPHC ongoing Courtesy : A. Meregalia IPHC

8. Observable E/cos  as for ANTARES analysis Main effect along diagonal lines – sub-optimal Akhmedov, Razzaque, Smirnov : arXiv:1205.7071

9. Preliminary sensitivity Assumptions: Selection is perfect – No remaining events from atm. Muons – No remaining events from NC Final event sample built from following components for both hypothesis : NH / IH – P( µ  µ )  µ  µ + P( µ  e )  µ  e – P( e  µ )  e  µ + P( e  e )  e  e

10. Preliminary sensitivity Pseudo-data created by Gaussian smearing from NH MC sample (not shown on plots)  ² calculated from 19 bins (1-20 GeV) by comparing Pseudo-data versus IH MC P-value from  ² probability

11. Step 1 Only the muon is measured Perfect measurement of E µ and cos  µ  ²= 18.0/19 ; p-value 0.52 ;  = …… 5 years of data bins of 1 GeV No oscillations Normal hierarchy Inverted hierarchy 41895 19859 20055 Without e CC

12. Step 2 Muon energy and Neutrino zenith are measured Perfect measurement of E µ and cos   ²= 19.2/19 ; p-value 0.44 ;  = 0.14 5 years of data bins of 1 GeV No oscillations Normal hierarchy Inverted hierarchy 41458 19030 19223 Without e CC

13. Step 3 Neutrino energy and Muon zenith are measured Perfect measurement of E and cos  µ  ²= 32.6/19 ; p-value 0.0264 ;  = 1.94 5 years of data bins of 1 GeV No oscillations Normal hierarchy Inverted hierarchy 30141 15121 15345 Without e CC

14. Step 4 Neutrino energy and zenith are measured Perfect measurement of E and cos   ²= 136.6/19 ; p-value 8.2 10 -20 ;  = 9.03 5 years of data bins of 1 GeV No oscillations Normal hierarchy Inverted hierarchy 29766 15315 15518 Without e CC

15. Step 5 Neutrino energy and zenith are measured Perfect measurement of E and cos   ²= 92.1/19 ; p-value 1.43 10 -11 ;  = 6.65 5 years of data bins of 1 GeV No oscillations Normal hierarchy Inverted hierarchy 38501 24953 24882 Includes 38% misreconstructed e CC

16. Conclusion Measurement of muon alone (even perfect) is NOT sufficient to reach the goal ! Need new method for background suppression Some contamination from e can be accepted Must go beyond BBfit & Co….

17. Next steps Detector setup with Multi-PMTs – 49 lines (7x7 square) ; interstring distance 20m – 6m between storeys ; 20 storeys per string – total 980 storeys and 30380 (small) PMTs – Production currently running Detector embedded in ANTARES – Use ANTARES as veto – Modify tools to work with different OMs Interface to GLOBES for P osc and to neutrino flux library (APC/IPHC) New method for significance calculation (D. Franco, APC)