1. Update on EMIS 12-13 PDV, ESWG April 2013 Sources used: EMIS 12-13, Commune Database 2011, Jim Shoobridge report

2. Grade Specific Enrolments Grade 6Grade 7Grade 9Grade 10G10/6G7/6G10/9 2000-1 179,988 131,385 60,098 27,709 2001-2 211,108 153,700 86,237 40,883 0.85 0.68 2002-3 236,150 180,906 107,908 52,557 0.86 0.61 2003-4 282,746 201,095 116,219 66,655 0.85 0.62 2004-5 324,586 237,829 130,420 67,707 0.38 0.84 0.58 2005-6 330,801 268,087 134,023 89,383 0.42 0.83 0.69 2006-7 322,138 268,120 151,878 90,315 0.38 0.81 0.67 2007-8 293,632 259,480 169,055 109,629 0.39 0.81 0.72 2008-9 277,153 234,800 169,931 121,637 0.37 0.80 0.72 2009-10 274,689 226,033 172,864 124,607 0.38 0.82 0.73 2010-11 275,253 223,490 158,328 124,820 0.39 0.81 0.72 2011-12 283,920 221,166 146,106 112,081 0.38 0.80 0.71 2012-13 275,171 226,517 138,108 101,536 0.37 0.80 0.69 Note: absolute numbers …. But no improvement in proxy effeciency

3. Enrolment by Grade Source: EMIS 12-13

4. Pop 6-11 2011-122012-13 Province Aged 6-11 Change Total Banteay Meanchey 88,88990,695102.0% Battambang 135,643138,305102.0% Kampong Cham 220,914220,929100.0% Kampong Chhnang 65,99666,992101.5% Kampong Speu 103,071104,128101.0% Kampong Thom 91,38191,977100.7% Kampot 80,58580,932100.4% Kandal 127,086128,878101.4% Kep 5,3835,554103.2% Koh Kong 16,90817,415103.0% Kratie 48,87049,803101.9% Mondul Kiri 10,46410,833103.5% Otdar Meanchey 30,12031,299103.9% Pailin 9,69810,244105.6% Phnom Penh 120,717125,476103.9% Preah Sihanouk 26,74527,426102.5% Preah Vihear 27,49927,913101.5% Prey Veng 128,831128,849100.0% Pursat 53,92754,577101.2% Ratanak Kiri 25,60626,109102.0% Siemreap 128,146131,259102.4% Stung Treng 17,30217,641102.0% Svay Rieng 60,74260,798100.1% Takeo 113,599113,792100.2% Whole Kingdom1,738,1221,761,825 101.4% - Urban Area 322,191330,635102.6% - Rural Area 1,415,9301,431,190101.1% Increase in Urban Pop Increase Remote provinces Interesting: Kg Cham Prey Veng Svay Rieng Takeo  Populated provinces

5. Successful Re-entry ??? Unlikely. Change in Enrolment by Grade compared to previous year Province Grade 4Grade 5Grade 6 Banteay Meanchey 101%111%95% Battambang 98%105%97% Kampong Cham 121%156%97% Kampong Chhnang 104%112%99% Kampong Speu 96%100% Kampong Thom 98%105%95% Kampot 98%105%98% Kandal 102%164%99% Kep 80%124%97% Koh Kong 95%119%98% Kratie 96%111%97% Mondul Kiri 108%143%81% Otdar Meanchey 104%108%102% Pailin 126%130%110% Phnom Penh 103%115%90% Preah Sihanouk 102%121%94% Preah Vihear 102%108%86% Prey Veng 102%129%97% Pursat 93%128%99% Ratanak Kiri 116%124%106% Siemreap 109%138%99% Stung Treng 106%100%99% Svay Rieng 94%119%98% Takeo 95%108%98% Whole Kingdom 103%124%97% - Urban Area 103%114%94% - Rural Area 103%126%98% Unrealistic changes in Grade 5 Enrolment Almost throughout the country EMIS error? Feedback from Kg Cham: POE/DOE/schools: All: EMIS not correct, even at school level big differences, and even by gender This makes it unlikely that it is a processing error (e.g. SPSS script) Impact on PNER can be 2-2.5 PP

6. Comparing EMIS G 5 enrolment with POE Kg Cham Grade 5 Enrolment Perc EMIS POEEMIS higher District2011-122012-13 Batheay 2,890 4,283 2,822 152% Chamkar Leu 2,583 3,520 2,728 129% Cheung Prey 2,331 3,722 2,246 166% Dambe 1,992 3,854 2,151 179% Kampong Cham 783 982 819 120% Kampong Siem 2,439 4,108 2,487 165% Kang Meas 2,329 3,550 2,119 168% Koh Sotin 1,589 2,008 1,539 130% Krauch Chhmar 1,907 2,771 2,084 133% Memot 3,717 6,927 4,016 172% O Raing Euv 2,222 3,481 2,258 154% Ponhea Krek 3,192 4,566 3,588 127% Prey Chhor 3,038 4,827 3,224 150% Srey Santhor 2,281 3,312 2,280 145% Steung Trang 2,721 4,971 2,934 169% Suong 714 959 674 142% Tbaung Khmum 3,613 5,145 3,946 130% Whole Province 40,341 62,986 41,915 150%

7. % Over-age Enrolment 2011-122012-13Change in Province % Over-age Enrollment (Total) Percentage Points PrimaryL.Sec.PrimaryL.Sec. Kampong Cham24.237.732.029.6 7.9-8.1 Kampong Speu19.837.214.828.6 -5.0-8.6 Kep21.740.39.032.0 -12.8-8.3 Koh Kong24.948.711.342.7 -13.6-6.0 Otdar Meanchey21.951.117.541.3 -4.4-9.8 Phnom Penh16.227.07.022.9 -9.1-4.1 Preah Vihear28.051.421.246.0 -6.8-5.4 Stung Treng19.348.110.842.7 -8.5-5.4 Svay Rieng23.037.222.227.3 -0.8-9.9 Kingdom21.836.121.429.4 -0.4-6.7 - Urban Area8.531.010.226.7 1.7-4.3 - Rural Area24.037.423.230.1 -0.8-7.3 Some big changes Kg Cham ?? Impact on NER! PNER: provinces with considerably smaller % over-age: NER goes up Note: Big change for LS

8. 71 districts NER >= 100 15 < 80 For both: In some Surprising areas Primary NER 2012-13 (EMIS)

12. the regional gap has narrowed substantially 12 1: Education

13. 119 districts < 80 = below target But: Private school data impacts for urban areas Need further analysis Primary Completion 2012-13 (EMIS)

14. Percent Enrolment in Private Primary Schools in Top 12 Districts 14 Source: CDB 2011 Commune Database: About 48,000 students in Private Primary Schools About 2% of 2.2 Million But about 15% of urban enrolment of 325,020. CDB: Annual, collected in December from communes and village chiefs National coverage M o Planning Wealth of data 1: Education PCRs Phnom Penh: -PPM: 50.7% -CHKM: 56.5% -DPH: 96.0% -TK: 84.5% -MCH: 79.6 % 50.7 56.5

15. Cambodia is on track to achieve Primary NER Targets by 2015 15 EMIS2012/13 TOTAL 87.35 URBAN 71.79 RURAL 90.86 EMIS2012/13 TOTAL 94.3 URBAN 76.7 RURAL 98.6 EMIS2012/13 TOTAL 97.0 URBAN 83.2 RURAL 100.2 U RBAN NUMBERS ARE LOWER IN EMIS: N O CAPTURING OF PRIVATE SCHOOLS 1: Education Primary Net Enrolment Primary Gender Parity

16. 1) C ONSIDERABLE G AP EMIS E NROLMENT ( EXCL PRIVATE ) AND A TTENDANCE DATA FROM CDB, DHS, C ENSUS, CSES, AND 2) T REND IS LESS POSITIVE THAN EMIS 16 1: Education

17. Repetition by Level

18. No more Survival Rates …. But..

19. LSS NER has doubled in the last 10 years, but it is much below even the reduced MDG target … … ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP RECENTLY AFTER SOME STAGNATION 19 1: Education

20. there is recent progress with repetition rates, B UT DROP OUT RATES HAVE REMAINED STAGNANT … M O EYS T ARGET WAS TO HALF R EPETITION AND D ROP O UT RATES BETWEEN 2007/08 AND 2014/15 20 1: Education

21. The transition rate to LSS is less than projected and stagnating … A ND THE DROP OUT RATE IN LSS REMAINS HIGH 21 T HESE REPRESENT A 40% L OSS TO THE HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS 1: Education

22. That’s It For now … Next: - a bit more analysis - come up with main issues to be improved - check with DoP