1. ASSOCIATION FOR CANADIAN EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES (ACER) Applied Climate Change Conference May 23-24, 2013 Community Sustainability under a Changing Climate Don C. MacIver mayor.maciver@hotmail.com Marianne Karsh mbkarsh@gmail.com

2. POINT 1: The Climate is already Changing Annual Temps: Warmed Mean Temps ~ 2.7  C Min Temps most ~4.1  C Annual Precip: Slight Increase? How has the Climate Been Changing in the Area? Since late 1800s

3. Global Climate Model Projections for Region – 2050s Scenario data from AR4 CGCM3 and HadCM3 Changes relative to 1961-1990 Baseline Climate Annual Mean Temps Warming 2.6 – 4.0  C Annual Mean Precip Increasing 6-15% POINT 2: The Climate will be Changing

4. C 2 = Natural X Human-Induced Climate The Changing climate is: Non-linear at local and regional scales A Multiplier Climate, not an additive climate Implications Not gradual impacts but abrupt step changes Need to redefine critical sensitivity thresholds

5. Page 5 POINT 3: Threats to Biodiversity in Canada Land-Use Change Climate Change Insects/Disease/Fire

6. Climate and Forest Biodiversity Using Smithsonian Global Biodiversity Observation Network “Canada can ill-afford the loss of one species”

7. Biodiversity:Changes in Family Forest Diversity in Ontario under 2XCO 2 Climate Warming Current Family Forest Diversity Potential in Ontario Current 2 X CO 2

9. Climate Change is a global-local issue Safety/Health Competitiveness Adaptation to: Changing markets Changing regulations Changing technologies Adaptation to: Changing landscapes Changing species/seeds Changing ecosystems Adaptation to: Changing climate Changing hazards Changing behaviour Community Sustainability Biodiversity

10. POINT 4: Building Resilience - Reduce the Rate of Loss of Forest Biodiversity Reduce fragmentation Protect space, functional groups, climate refugia, and multiple microhabitats in replicated areas Design buffer zones and flexibility of land uses Ensure connectivity of habitats along gradients Seed sources and climatic information/scenarios for new community planning designs. Support Community Monitoring Programs – eg. urban forests, schoolyards and backyards

11. POINT 5: Management - Building the Adaptive Capacity Current Management Practices: Slow to respond to change Reactive adaptation Assumes environment is robust – but losses will continue Future Adaptive Management Actions: Recognize urgency to adapt now – eg. new planting programs – native and new species Support community monitoring programs Accelerate community planning and solutions Engage communities, partnerships and education

12. POINT 6: Planned Adaptation - Increasing Habitat Biodiversity Under Climate Change by 2020 Build corridors with native and new species Re-introduce species– select seeds x climate Control or eradicate invasive species Engage in community planting designs and planting programs Manage for land-use changes and disturbances to biodiversity Account for projected impacts in climate change when designing new community management plans and protected areas

13. United Nations Publications: Climate Change and Biodiversity

14. Page 14 Publications Dallmeier, F., A. Fenech, D.C MacIver and R. Szaro (eds.). 2010. Climate Change, Biodiversity & Sustainability in the Americas. Smithsonian Institution Scholarly Press, Washington, D.C. 183 pp. Fenech, A., D.C. MacIver and F. Dallmeier (eds.). 2009. Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Americas. Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, On. 346 pp. MacIver, D.C., M.B. Karsh and N. Comer. 2009. Climate change and Biodiversity: Implications for Monitoring, Science and Adaptive Planning. Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Toronto, On. 184 pp. MacIver D, 2013 (Accepted For Publication), Climate Sense For Municipalities, Municipal World Publication MacIver D, Karsh M, 2010, Planned Adaptation - How Municipalities Can Save Energy And Increase Habitat Biodiversity Under Climate Change By 2020 And Beyond, Municipal World Publication MacIver D, Fernandez S, 2010, Canadian Drought Alert And Monitoring Program - The Do-It-Yourself Drought Alert And Water Conservation Tool, Municipal World Publication MacIver D, Butt S, Auld H, Klaassen J, 2009, Severe Weather is the #1 Risk To Ontario Municipalities, Municipal World Publication

15. Canada is the victim of global greenhouse gas emissions from foreign countries --- adaptation actions are already overdue