1. 25/04/2017
Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences
Prof dr Ruerd Ruben
Impact Assessment for Food Security

2. Food & Nutrition Insecurity & Civil Conflict

3. Key dimensions of Food Security
Food & Nutrition Security
Conflict

4. Food security risks

5. Changes in Poverty Strong decline in overall poverty;
Poverty in Fragile & non-fragile states ( )
Strong decline in overall poverty;
Most structural poverty will become concentrated in Fragile states
Share of Rural poverty
Chronic poverty remains mainly a rural issue; Urban settings face inequality & undernutrition

6. Differences in socio-economic performance
More structural Poverty & Food Insecurity in (post)conflict countries;associated with many other socio-economic problems.

7. Underinvestment in African Agriculture
Public Investments in Agriculture (10% target)
Small public investment in agriculture (R&D and rural infrastructure)
Agricultural growth rates ( )
Limited growth rates of agricultural output & stagnating productivity

8. Unstable Food & Agri-commodity Prices
Strongly variable food prices with shocks (‘food spikes’) in 2008 & 2011
High food prices: trigger for (urban) food riots , but only rather loose association with Arab Spring events

9. Foresight modelling & scenarios

10. Urbanization, Dietary Change & Food Import
Food import share (% GDP) in DCs
Agricultural trade balance LDCs
Dietary changes ( )

11. Correlation & Association ≠ Causality
Poverty & (local) Conflicts
GDP pc / GDP growth & Rule of Law (Rodrik)
Poverty
Political Governance
Food Security

12. Some (un)confirmed Hypotheses
Food scarcity & migration
Trigger for domestic (rural to urban) migration
Not for international migration (driven by insecurity)
Food inequality & corruption & crime (‘greed & grievance’)
Food price subsidies  favouring urban middle class
Land grabbing & water disputes  civil unrest
Food shocks & human relations
Natural (disasters)  demand for insurance
Man-made (war)  trauma & reduced trust (‘food as weapon’)

13. Aid & Trade Policies for Socio-political Stability
Mitigating conflicts
Infrastructure (roads, irrigation) & cultivars (GMOs?)
Rainfall insurance (price expectations crops, cattle)
Enhancing exchange
Post-harvest loss reduction (storage, transport)
Regional trade arrangements
Promoting interdependence
Cooperative development
Public-private partnerships & contracts

14. Thank you for your attention!
25/04/2017
Thank you for your attention!