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Reliance Communication Ltd., We recommend Buy with a price target of 800-920-1100. Buying level :650-700. Resistance : 730-780. The scrip has strongly supported at 61.8% fibonocci levels at 650 and is taking a sideways movement and witnessing good volume at the bottom. we witness a strong accumulation at these levels and will be a good investment at these levels.
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Company Outlook Earnings Growth Reliance Communications (RCOM) recorded a 32.8% y ‐ o ‐ y and a 9.7% q ‐ o ‐ q topline growth in Q1 FY2008. Mainly driven by the Wireless Bus iness unit; company also seems to be positive and thus has made 84% of the investment in the segment. The Company has posted a profit after tax of Rs 837.30 crore for the q uarter ended June 30, 2007 as compared to Rs 474.17 crore for the qua rter ended June 30, 2006. Total Income has increased from Rs 2732.16 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2006 to Rs 3229.69 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2007.
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Valuation Summary The consolidated figures of profit tax after are Rs 1220.84 crore for the qua rter ended June 30, 2007 as compared to Rs 512.82 crore for the quarter en ded June 30, 2006. Total Income has increased from Rs 3250.12 crore for th e quarter ended June 30, 2006 to Rs 4303.70 crore for the quarter ended Ju ne 30, 2007. KLG Systel received orders worth Rs 670 mn from the Govern ments of Rajasthan and Haryana. In broadband segment the number of access lines increased to 705,000 in Q1 FY2008 (322,000 in corresponding previous quarter) and the number of buil dings directly connected to the Reliance network increased to 600,000. Relian ce Communications has a market share of over 50% of new business acquisit ions in the enterprise connectivity space.
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Valuation Summary The Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) remains stable at Rs. 375 as against a continuous fall across the industry. The revenue per minute ha d improved from Rs. 0.70 per minute in the previous quarter to Rs. 0.7 4 per minute in the current quarter. The company expects the ARPU to come down marginally due to subscriber’s growth. RCOM added its highest ‐ ever monthly subscriber additions, at over 1.48 mn adding 5.5m subscribers during the quarter. The company remains th e second ‐ largest wireless operator in the country, with a total market sh are of 17.6%. The company expects the growth rate to increase to 1.8 million subscribers per month. The current Rupee appreciation has benefited the company as it has imp orted equipments from China and the Chinese Yuan is beingpegged to US Dollar.
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INDUSTRY OVERVIEW India’s telephone network is one of the largest communication networks in the World which will continue to grow at blistering pce. The Indian telecommunications network with over 200 million connections is the thi rd largest in the world after China and USA, and second largest among the emerging economies of Asia. With a growth rate of 45%, Indian tel ecom industry has the highest growth rate in the world. The telecom sector is driving today the growth of both incomes and em ployment. Indeed, this growth is creating new business and new employ ment opportunities. India has emerged as a major base for the telecom i ndustry worldwide.
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FUTURE PLANS OF THE COMPANY The company expects dilution of the shares of FLAG telecom in FY08 and further listing it on the stock exchange from around 18 onths from no w. The Dilution will allow the company to gain more funds and thus cr eation of value unlocking. The funds will helpful for the company for f urther expansion. The listing of shares will give its strategic investors a n option to exit and further brand building and value unlocking for te c ompany. Currently the company has 85% of the domestic network coverage with CD MA network presence in 21 circles out of 23 circles and GSM network presence in 8 circes. The company is expanding its GSM network rigor ously and is spending huge on capex expansion and setting up of new t owers. Company is targeting to expand its GSM network to all 23 circl es across the country. The company expects a year around to launch its GSM services in the remaining 15 circles across India.
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Disclaimer: This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and the information contained herein may not be deemed to be an investment advice. Such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. The information contained herein is not a complete analysis of every material fact representing any company, industry or security. The views expressed may change. While the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for the accuracy of its contents. Investors are advised to satisfy themselves before making any investments and should consult with and rely upon their own advisors whether and how to use such information in making any investment decision. Neither the author nor his firm accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/ article. This report is exclusively for the clients of Venkataraman & Co. only. VENKATARAMAN & CO., Stock & Share Brokers, New No.2 (Old No.52) Dr. Ranga Road, Mylapore, Chennai 600 004. Web: www.venkataraman.com E-mail: vnkco@vsnl.com
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