1. James Pinto Project Scientist II NCAR Research Applications Laboratory pinto@ucar.edu NCAR/RAL Perspective on Aviation-based Requirements for RUA

2. Alaska C&V Rapid Update Analysis Workshop, 3 June 2015 FAA camera locations - Provide 1 st guess analysis to AAWU for developing C&V charts - Generate analysis that combines available met data (METAR, satellite, etc) with C&V info from FAA cameras - Effort currently lead by Rita Roberts (RAL) and Bob Hallowell (MIT-LL) - Requirements: Cloud base analysis, RH trends 1000 camera locations with multiple view angles. VFRMVFR VFRMVFR IFR

3. Dust Storm Analysis and Nowcasts Rapid Update Analysis Workshop, 3 June 2015 WRF-chem Aerosol Optical Depth - builds on WRF-Chem modeling framework - implemented for Saudi Arabia’s Presidency of Meteorology & Environment (PME) > guidance on aerosol optical depth, all dust, & dust near surface - Requirements: Surface wind gusts, stability profiles, surface moisture MODIS Optical Depth Slide courtesy Yubao Lui (RAL)

4. MCS Initiation Rapid Update Analysis Workshop, 3 June 2015 MCS Detection JJA 2013 OBS MCS-I Frequency Pinto et al. 2015 Peak frequency 8% / (500 km) 2 in SE Mean Frequency = 0.3 % / (500 km) 2

5. MCS Initiation - Prediction Rapid Update Analysis Workshop, 3 June 2015 MCS Initiation Detection MCS-I Likelihood Requirements: Improved model initialization – boundary locations, stability profiles, PBL moisture mem1 mem2 memN Reliability MCS-I within 125 km +/- 1 hr

6. Nowcasting MCS Initiation with Data Mining Rapid Update Analysis Workshop, 3 June 2015 - Random Forest to asses which variables most useful for predicting MCS Initiation - Ahijevych et al. 2015 - Requirements: Stability, Moisture (surface and integrated), shear, boundaries HRRR Predictors Ordered By Mean Importance

7. Turbulence Analysis and Nowcasts Rapid Update Analysis Workshop, 3 June 2015 NEXRAD Turbulence Detection Algorithm (NTDA) ◦Prototype running in real-time over entire CONUS (133 NEXRADS) ◦5 min updates NEXRAD EDR Slide courtesy Bob Sharman (RAL) - Requirements: 15 min trends in stability, u,v,w, hydrometeor profiles ~400 aircraft w/ in situ EDR

8. Precip Type & Icing Potential Analysis Rapid Update Analysis Workshop, 3 June 2015 - EOL’s Particle identification software uses dual polarization, temperature profile analysis (slide courtesy Scott Ellis) - Requirements: T,q(z) accurately depicting melt layer Retrieval Algorithms using Polarimetric Radar Data

9. Requirements Summary Rapid Update Analysis Workshop, 3 June 2015 C&V - Cloud base Analysis, RH(z) trends Convection - Stability, Moisture (surface and integrated), shear, boundaries Turbulence - 15 min trends in stability, u,v,w profiles Precip Type - T,q(z) especial in vicinity accurately depicting melt layer Icing - T,q(z), cloud geometry, liquid water content, specific humidity Dust Storm/ Haze - Requirements: Surface wind gusts, stability profiles, surface moisture, optical depth Variable-dependent Analysis Uncertainty Critical

10. Aviation-relevant Projects in RAL Rapid Update Analysis Workshop, 3 June 2015 Ceiling and Visibility - Combine satellite, metars, FAA camera into C&V analysis for AK - Haze and dust storms analysis/prediction Inflight Icing - CIP/FIP - Probability of icing, severity, supercooled liquid drops - High ice water content (HIWC) - Precip type retrievals from polarimetric radar Turbulence and Wind Shear - NCAR Turbulence Detection Algorithm (NTDA) - In situ Eddy Dissipation Ratio (EDR) - Juneau Airport Wind System (JAWS) Convection - Probabilistic MCS-I nowcasting - Lightning analysis and nowcasting RUA Nowcasting Workshop, 3-4 Jun 2015