1. 1 Critical Water Information for Floods to Droughts Hydrology Program Priorities National HIC Meeting January 25, 2006 Responsive to Natural Disasters Forecasts for Hazard Risk Management Valuable Data for Local and State Governments Detailed Information for Zip Code Level Analysis

2. 2 Protecting Life, Livelihood, and Way of Life River channel Developed Shrubs/Grass Agriculture Wetlands Forecast Point Forecast Basin River Services (600 miles per forecast point) Water Resource Services (6 square mile forecast basins) River Conditions Soil Conditions

3. 3 Program Team Composition River Forecast Centers National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Hydrologic Services Division Office of Hydrologic Development Program Customers Federal Water Agencies Commercial Waterway Navigation Emergency and Water Resource Managers General Public Councils associated with the Hydrology Program Research, Platform Allocation, Observing Systems, CIO, Education, International Affairs NOAA Hydrology Program

4. 4 Office of Hydrologic Development Organization Chart 45 Full Time Equivalent (FTE) Positions

5. 5 Algorithm Services Data Services Control Services Display Services Security Services Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) Federal agencies State, regional, and local cooperators Universities Private sector International organizations River Stage & Flow Surface Water Storage Water Supply Availability Flood Potential Water Quality Soil Moisture Runoff Snow Water Equivalent Precipitation Evapotranspiration Near- Surface Deep Point Information (Stations, Grid Cells) Vector Information (River Segments) Hydrology XML Consortium Evolving to become “pulse” of CHPS http://www.weather.gov/oh/hydroxc/index.html

6. 6 Collaborative Research Areas of Emphasis Observations Analysis Model Forecasts Post-processed Model Data Forecaster User (public, industry…) Forecast System Data Assimilation Community Models Community Observations

7. 7 Long-term Vision: Integrated Water Science Coupled ocean/atmospheric/ land-surface model (global) Coupled atmospheric/land-surface model (regional) Interface with Estuary Models, Water Quality Models WEATHER & CLIMATE FOCUS WATER FOCUS Observing Systems Common Hydrologic Land-Surface Modeling System (Uncoupled) Research Labs Land Surface Hydrology & Water Resources Modeling

8. 8 R&D Algorithms Prototype Operational Algorithms “Test” Environment Collaborative R&D Partners (NOAA Labs, Universities) Operational Implementation Validation & Verification New Science Users & Customers (RFCs, WFOs, Other Agencies) Feedback Hydrology Testbed: RTO Process

9. 9 Enable Full Utilization of Existing Observing Systems –Development of data processing and assimilation capabilities Science-to-Operations –Test new stream flow prediction models and forecasting techniques for time scales of hours to months Long-term Vision: Hydrology Testbed Airborne Satellite Radar In-Situ physiographic New physiographic data AHPS Infrastructure New observing systems NOAA NASA USGS USDA DOD EPA DOE Water Resources Data Assimilation and CHPS OTHERS Experimental River Forecast Center

10. 10 From Weather and Climate Predictions to Water Management Weather and Climate Predictions: Temperature Precipitation Wind, … Weather and Climate Predictions: Temperature Precipitation Wind, … Hydrology and Water Resources Modeling, Data Assimilation Water Management Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Water Prediction Decision Support Tools Drought Mitigation Flood Management Flash Flood Prediction Water Supply Transportation Emergency Management Agriculture Ecosystem Stewardship

11. 11 Hydrologic Modeling Meteorological inputs Physical, Institutional, & Legal Features Topography Vegetation, land use Lakes, glaciers Soil properties Ground water River channel shape River depth/flow Dams, locks, levees Reservoir operations Irrigation, drains Water rights

12. 12 High Resolution Soil Moisture Forecasts – near term activities Test prototype version of soil moisture products from CONUS runs of HL-RMS and compare with other models Conduct economic impact analyses and case studies to identify the potential benefits of soil moisture forecasts

13. 13 Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) – next steps NWSRFS Data Service – deliver, via AWIPS Operational Build 7.2, first increment of distributed hydrologic modeling capability integrated into NWSRFS using CHPS Data Services components proven in River, Reservoir, & Snow (RRS) pre- processor proof-of-concept. Hydrology XML Consortium – build schema-compliant XML read/write adapters, develop SHEF-XML translators, develop common dictionary, move Consortium beyond just OHD. Future NWSRFS Enhancements – Reservoir model: provide RFCs with a CHPS service to run the USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Reservoir System Simulation program (HEC-ResSim) as an integral part of NWS operations Additional Hydraulic Models: identify the potential applications and feasibility for operational use of the USACE River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) Rapid Prototype Opportunity: examine WL/Delft Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) infrastructure to expedite migration to CHPS

14. 14 Debris Flow Pilot Project Interagency team chartered in December 2004 Team activities –Two day meeting (Jan. 31 - Feb. 1, 2005) –Focus areas: Customer identification/pilot project area Models and modifications Communications protocols/data acquisition mechanisms Requirements for budget, personnel, operation and maintenance costs, etc. –Plan delivered in July 2005 –Prototype for Southern California during Winter 2005-6

15. Long-term Vision: Debris Flow Watches and Warnings Land use/cover Terrain Soil type Precipitation Analyses Precipitation and Soil Moisture Forecasts Debris Flow Analyses Service Delivery NOAA/USGS

16. 16 Working Together: NOAA’s Science and Technology Infusion and Hydrology Programs

17. 17 IT/Software Manager AHPS Water Resources Science Manager NIDIS “Development Test” Environment Core Project and NASA grant Stage1: Hydrology Testbed Cluster Computing

18. 18 Stage 1: Hydrology Testbed Development System for Water Resource Models –Structured software compatible with the Community Hydrologic Prediction System –Open platform for collaborative R&D and RTO, including objective and transparent testing –One-stop storehouse for new and emerging capabilities and experimental products –Laboratory for prototyping the next-generation hydrologic forecasting system and its computational and communications infrastructure “Operational” Environment –National domain Full domain modeled, focus on RFC test basins –Develop/test new science, demonstrate pathway to operations, conduct retrospective analyses –Requires modest cluster computing resources –Staff Science Coordinator Software Development/Architecture Specialist Synergism with Other NOAA Testbeds –Climate Testbed –Hydromet Testbed –Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) Testbeds Oversight - HOSIP/OSIP

19. 19 Stage 1: Hydrology Testbed

20. 20 Hydrology Program Objectives Outcomes Improved Ecosystem Management Contribute mercury concentration predictions for the Gulf of Mexico Mercury Contamination Project (collaborating NOAA Programs: ER, EO, FM, AQ, EM) Increased Economic Benefits using Water Forecasts and Information Contribute gridded forecasts of soil moisture and temperature for the National Integrated Drought Information System (STI, LFW, EM, RDS, COA, CPP, CE) Reduced Losses due to Floods Contribute more accurate flood forecasts and warnings via the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (LFW, CEO, STI)

21. 21 Hydrology Program Assessment Program Priorities Extend Hydrologic Forecasting Service to Include: -Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) -Data Assimilation Meet Customer Needs, e.g., National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Provide Infrastructure for Water Quality Forecasts Water Resource Services Watershed and soil condition forecasts for hazard resilient communities – Run-off or River flow – Soil moisture – Soil temperature – Precipitation – Snowpack – Surface storage – Ground water – Water temperature – Water quality Short- to long-term water risk forecasts support hazard resistant businesses (including agriculture) and local ecosystem stewardship

22. 22 AHPS Program Plan Water Resources Vision Science and Technology Vision Future Environment HOSIP/OSIP Hydrology Program: Enhancement Process Current Operational Environment

23. 23 Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) HOSIP/OSIP Flash Flood River Flow (short to long term) Water Resources Services* Water Quality Forecasts** *Resources in FY06 Budget **Potential capability currently being considered Graphical Dissemination National Integrated Drought Information System** AHPS Review Committee Theme Teams Hydrologists in Charge DOH Science Steering Team NOAA Program Managers Requirement Drivers

24. 24 Hydrology Program: Proposed Oversight Group Objective: Introduce a process to ensure high priority requirements are being addressed in an effective manner Hydrology Program Manager OHD Representative HSD Representative HIC Representative Water Predictions for Life Decisions