1. Dr John H. McKendrick Poverty in Scotland Community opportunities in troubled and uncertain times? Community Learning and Development Westerwood Hotel, Cumbernauld October 30, 2015

2. Outline of talk Where I stand Falling in love with poverty Poverty in Scotland: direction of travel Understanding attitudes to poverty and welfare Towards a community action agenda Lessons for tackling poverty

3. Where I stand Poverty in Scotland: Community opportunities in troubled and uncertain times?

5. Maybe I exaggerate … but just a little

6. Vision of the optimist Poverty is an inevitable (but unproblematic) social ill ----- Poor people are to blame Our anti-poverty interventions have not been sufficiently effective to tackle poverty in Scotland Vested interests create and maintain poverty

7. Falling in love with poverty Poverty in Scotland: Community opportunities in troubled and uncertain times?

8. ‘Falling in love’ means increasingly serving a purpose Means to an end Blaming the feckless - Punitive / Consequence Agencies related to the anti-poverty sector Return to the past not likely (Thatcherism and ‘no poverty’) Devolution New Labour and UK national consensus Strong anti-poverty sector Making sense of poverty has been a keen concern of those concerned with the re-balancing of the State from provider to facilitator in post-austerity UK Poverty has been lurking prominently in the background throughout the Referendum and UK election debates

9. Making the connection?

10. A Scottish connection?

11. Poverty in Scotland: direction of travel Poverty in Scotland: Community opportunities in troubled and uncertain times?

12. No shortage of Scottish Government interest 1.Social Justice Milestones (1999-2004) – Ten long-term Targets and twenty-nine Milestones across five population groups 2.Closing the Opportunity Gap (2004-2007) – Three Aims, Six Objectives and Ten Targets 3.Achieving Our Potential (2008 … ) 4.Scottish Child Poverty Strategy (2011-, refreshed 2014) 5.Independent Adviser on Poverty and Inequality (2015-) 6.Fairer Scotland 2030 conversation (2015-)

13. Growing Scottish Local Government Interest 1.Renfrewshire 2.Falkirk 3.Dumfries and Galloway 4.West Lothian 5.Dundee (Fairness Commission) 6.Local Government Committee Forum Against Poverty

14. Impact on education Children in poverty nine months behind in terms of “school readiness” by age three (Centre for Longitudinal Studies, 2008) by age 5 gap of 10 months in problem solving and 13 months in vocabulary development (GUS 2011, in JRF 2014) by S2 pupils in areas of low deprivation twice as likely to be performing well on numeracy, with 16 percentage points difference in reading (JRF 2014) school leavers from areas of high deprivation – lower attainment tariff score - half that of least deprived – less likely to enter positive destinations – 22% don’t, compared to 5% of least deprived (Scottish Government 2012) attainment gap remains stubbornly wide

15. A universal problem

16. Necessarily complex concept Absolute income poverty – Number and proportion of children in households whose equivalised income before housing costs is below 60 per cent of inflation adjusted GB median income in 2010/11. This is a measure of whether the poorest families are seeing their incomes rise in real terms. Relative income poverty – Number and proportion of children in households whose equivalised income before housing costs is below 60 per cent of GB median income in the same year. This is a measure of whether the poorest families are keeping pace with the growth of incomes in the economy as a whole Material deprivation and income poverty – Number and proportion of children that are both materially deprived and are in households whose equivalised income before housing costs is less than 70 per cent of the GB median in the current year. This is to provide a wider measure of children’s living standards. Persistent income poverty – Reduce the proportion of children that experience long periods of relative poverty (that is to reduce the percentage of children who live in households that have a household income of less than 60% of the median household income for three years out of a four-year period) with the specific target percentage to be set at a later date.

17. In pounds and pence

18. Where we are heading (children BHC)

19. How we got where we are

20. 2014 (2012/13) as the ‘turning point’? Between 2011/12 and 2012/13 … Total Numbers (AHC, unless stated) Poverty on the increase (again) 1 million now living in relative poverty (19%) Increase of 140,000 in relative poverty is highest rise in poverty in a single year (since records 1994/95) Third annual rise in total number living in absolute poverty Third annual fall in the median equivalised weekly household income for children, WAA and pensioners Highest recorded levels of in-work poverty (45% of all; 59% of children; 52% of WAA in household with at least one adult in employment) … BHC

21. Uncertain times

22. Children in poverty in Scotland 140,000 more than half in working families (or 210,000, AHC)

23. Children in poverty in Drumchapel 55.6% FSM in Camstradden (40 th highest for PS in Scotland) 38.9% FSM in Drumchapel High (6 th highest for SS in Scotland)

24. Understanding attitudes Poverty in Scotland: Community opportunities in troubled and uncertain times?

25. Sticks and Stones … ? We are brought up to believe that verbal abuse shouldn’t bother/harm us We are brought up to believe that other abuses (physical) are more important

26. Sticks and Stones may break my bones … But words will cause me psychological damage But words perpetuate misunderstanding But words shape the context within which it is possible to make decisions / transitions to improve people’s lives

27. Surely it’s all about the action … Against a backdrop where there was no public outcry about poverty New Labour introduced concrete measures to tackle child poverty in the 1990s Did not champion this for fear that it would not garner public support … was that part of the problem? Do we need to win ‘hearts and minds’ in order to sustain action (particularly when times are tough)

28. How do we know what Scots think? Collecting evidence of social attitudes toward poverty and other issues for over 30 years SCOTPULSE survey of 2013 for STV Appeal 2013 PSE-UK work of 2011 and 2012 determining what are necessities

29. Scots accept that child poverty exists in Scotland

30. Scots think that it is important to tackle child poverty

31. Scots estimates are not always accurate. 3. Trends in next five years

32. Scots have mixed opinions on welfare reform

33. Scots think that welfare reform will damage children

34. Scots think many have a role to play in tackling CP

35. Scots don’t know about the CPSS

36. What Scots think should be done 1. Strategy Strategic Goal % Ensuring that work-related training and sufficiently well-paid work is available to the parents of children living in poverty 46.1% Improving educational outcomes to ensure that all children have a better chance of avoiding poverty when they become adults 44.3% Supporting those families with children who are living at or just above the poverty line 40.7% Directly providing services to children living in poverty in order to improve their quality of life 39.1% Providing adequate social protection to families with children living in poverty 30.1% Don't know4.9%

37. What Scots think should be done 2. Actions

38. Why poverty exists Reason Eng 2009 Wal 2009 Scot 2009 Scot 2013 Their parents suffer from alcoholism, drug abuse or other addictions 68%65%82%87% Their parents have been out of work for a long time 48%46%52%74% Their family cannot access affordable housing27%24%33%41% Because of inequalities in society24%23%25%41% There are too many children in the family46%33%30%45% Their parents do not work enough hours21%14%11%28%

39. Why poverty exists: MAIN reason Reason Scot 2013 Their parents suffer from alcoholism, drug abuse or other addictions29% Because of inequalities in society16% Their parents do not want to work13% Their parents have been out of work for a long time10% Their parents work does not pay enough8% Their parents lack education6%

40. Conspicuous in its absence from the top table Reason MAIN Scot 2013 Social benefits for families with children are not high enough4%

41. Community agenda? Poverty in Scotland: Community opportunities in troubled and uncertain times?

42. Seven action points – Understand poverty statistics – Understand poverty statistics on the ground – Know your population – Convince people that poverty exists – Convince people that poverty is a problem that must be addressed – Understand the nature of area poverty – Make a difference through local action

43. 1. Understand Poverty Statistics Definition impacts on estimates 730,000 people in Scotland are living in poverty using a before housing costs measure, compared to 940,000 using an after housing costs measure Understand UK Government Child Poverty Measure (for now) Absolute low income Relative low income Material deprivation and low income combined Know key statistics the number of people living in poverty the proportion of people living in poverty recent trends in the number of people living in poverty differences in the prevalence of poverty among children, adults of working age and adults of pensionable age incidence of poverty in their Government Office Region (GOR) and how this compares to other GORs.

44. 2. Understand Poverty Statistics on the ground Use robust means to directly compare local and regional/national incidence of poverty Area deprivation measures, rather than counts of the number living in poverty using official measures Recognise that poverty counts UNDERestimate poverty Parents/Guardians may divert resources from themselves to provide for their children (exacerbating the poverty of parents/guardians) Household debt may reduce the income that is at the disposal of those living in poverty Recognise that poverty counts OVERestimate poverty Extended family (and friends) may provide financial support and resources in kind to those living in poverty (particularly children) Household income may be supplemented by income earned in the “hidden economy”

45. 3. Know Your Population Incidence of poverty varies across localities 17% in Soroba ROA / 33% in Calton-Glasgow East End ROA At-risk population varies across localities 30% children in Soroba / 17% in Calton-Glasgow East End 1% children in Callander High Flats (Falkirk) / 37% in Northfield (Aberdeen) Problems of poverty vary across localities Worklessness higher than Scottish average for all age groups in Calton-Glasgow East End, but rates of worklessness are lower than Scottish average for younger and older in Soroba Achievements in Maths at S4 for boys is much lower in Soroba than for Calton- Glasgow East End = Poverty is not a universal experience / Poor areas are not all alike

46. 4. Convince people that poverty exists Many people do not think that poverty is widespread Many perceive that there is “very little” poverty in Britain today Many people have an austere understanding of poverty Many perceive that “someone in Britain is in poverty if they had enough to eat and live, but not enough to buy other things they needed

47. 5. Convince people that poverty is a problem that should be addressed The reasons many people think cause poverty are not amendable to policy interventions Only a minority attribute poverty to social injustice Fatalistic reasons are more popular ( ‘poverty is inevitable’ and ‘poor are unlucky’) Laziness or lack of willpower among poor is main reason for much of the public The era of year-on-year reductions in the number of children and pensioners experiencing poverty in Scotland is over

48. 6. Understand the nature of area poverty Collective financial burden School trips tend to ask for parental contribution Parental contributions are increasingly important in funding such activities Children are not prevented from participating due to parents’ inability to contribute to the cost So, Financial responsibility of non-poor in poor areas increases Less opportunities are provided

49. 7. Make a difference through local action Move beyond the national tackling of causes versus local amelioration of symptoms polemic Scottish Government is using local strategies to tackle national poverty Previously CtOG targeting E.g. Target A: Reducing economic inactivity in the areas of highest economic inactivity (number of workless people dependent on DWP benefits in Glasgow, North & South Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire & Inverclyde, Dundee, and West Dunbartonshire by 2007 and by 2010) Local child poverty strategies Child poverty is amenable to local action Tackling material deprivation E.g. Swimming at least once a month / / having A hobby or leisure activity / Going on a school trip at least once a term for school-aged children

50. Lessons for tackling poverty Poverty in Scotland: Community opportunities in troubled and uncertain times?

51. Progress can be made Real progress: between 1997 and 2011 160 000 fewer children in poverty in Scotland positive impact on measurable child wellbeing Policy works: at UK and Scotland level: – commitment to eradicate child poverty by 2020 – investment in child benefit and tax credits, – childcare, including Working for Families – employment – NMW, parental rights, employability support – income maximisation – affordable housing

52. What are the options? Enabling people not living in poverty to increase the opportunities for more people to live a poverty-free life Reducing the number of people living in poverty Preventing people on the margins of poverty from falling into poverty Enabling people living in poverty to increase their chance of living a poverty-free life Protecting those living in poverty from the worst excesses of living with poverty

53. Aiming to reduce the number of people living in poverty is a problematic goal for community anti-poverty strategies

54. What is the problem with aiming to reduce the numbers living in poverty? Nothing (in principle, or for those with control over the key levers) The local state (and indeed the Scottish Government) cannot control this Reducing numbers tends to be interpreted as a work-first approach and … – Work, per se, does not eradicate poverty – (Job) supply is insufficient to meet demand – Local state is scaling back on the number it employs

55. What works for a local strategy? Core aims should be to: Protecting those living in poverty from the worst excesses of living with poverty Enabling people to increase their and others’ chances of living a poverty-free life

56. Why? It is already what you do – It would give more explicit acknowledgement of tackling poverty activity – More likely to engender wider internal support for tackling poverty It may, by default, become the most important function of the current tackling poverty interventions of the local state – Rising demand for core services – Contraction of activity in employment/employability It is within the realm of local control – No confounding/intervening factors (it could be argued)

57. … and grounded in a rights perspective stronger framework than welfarist/social justice arguments for tackling child poverty … when child rights are used directly as a rationale for tackling child poverty Check against pre-occupation with instrumental focus on targets Means to embed tackling child poverty in wider children’s agendas (as opposed to wider welfare/work agendas Means to refocus the child poverty debate to lend greater urgency to efforts to eradicate child poverty Tackling povertyism

58. Some food for thought … There is an opportunity, must be aware of the threats Need to win the battle of public opinion There is the basis for what could be public support for tackling poverty: disconnect between attitude and policy strategy Need to rethink the role of community action in light of changes to the local state

59. Thank you for listening. Dr John H. McKendrick Glasgow School for Business and Society @ GCU j.mckendrick@gcu.ac.uk