Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services Richard Fulton NWS Science &

Published byMelanie Beasley Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services Richard Fulton NWS Science &"— Presentation transcript:

1 Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services Richard Fulton NWS Science & Technology Committee September 17, 2002

2 Outline Team CompositionTeam Composition Vision / BenefitsVision / Benefits Goals / TargetsGoals / Targets Key Information GapsKey Information Gaps Key SolutionsKey Solutions Outstanding R & D NeedsOutstanding R & D Needs SummarySummary

3 Hydrologic Services Team Composition NWSNWS –Richard Fulton (OHD / HL) –David Reynolds (WFO Monterey, CA) –Dong-Jun Seo (OHD / HL) –John Schaake (OHD / HL) –Edwin Danaher (NCEP / HPC) –Thomas Donaldson (OCWWS / HSD) OAROAR –Kevin Kelleher (NSSL) –Marty Ralph (ETL) –Brooks Martner (ETL) NESDISNESDIS –Roderick Scofield (ORA) –Robert Kuligowski (ORA)

4 Hydrologic Services Vision / Benefits Vision Accurate, Graphically-Based, Minutes-to-Months Probabilistic Forecasts and Warnings of Water Excess and Deficits More Frequently at More Locations Vision Accurate, Graphically-Based, Minutes-to-Months Probabilistic Forecasts and Warnings of Water Excess and Deficits More Frequently at More Locations $240M/yr in Flood Loss Savings and $520M/yr in Economic Benefits to Water Resource Managers (2002 NHWC Report)

5 Hydrologic Services Goals/Targets to FY 12 Existing GPRA (G) or Strategic Plan (S) Performance Measure Current Skill FY07 Goal Target FY12 Target Flash Flood Warning (Lead Time) (G) 47 Min. 48 Min. 55 Min. 60 Min. Flash Flood Warning (POD) (G) 86%89%92%93% Flash Flood Warning (FAR) (S) 37%35%32%30% Precip. Forecast (1-in Day 1 ThrScr) (G) 23%24%26%26% Proposed Performance Measure Current Skill FY07 Target FY12 Target River Flood Warning (Lead Time) N/A 7 Hrs. 8 Hrs. River Flood Warning (POD) N/A80%85% River Flood Warning (FAR) N/A26%20% On Track Low Risk High Risk

6 Hydrologic Services Key Information Gaps Quantitative Precipitation Information (QPE & QPF)Quantitative Precipitation Information (QPE & QPF) Unbiased Precipitation Estimates with Reliability Information Unbiased Precipitation Estimates with Reliability Information Reliable 0-6 Hour Precip. Nowcasts Reliable 0-6 Hour Precip. Nowcasts Longer-term, Unbiased Model QPFs Longer-term, Unbiased Model QPFs Hydrologic ForecastingHydrologic Forecasting High-resolution Flash Flood Forecasts & Warnings Probabilistic River Forecasts Using 0- 3 day QPF and Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts

7 Hydrologic Services Key S&T Solutions GapSolutionImpact Unbiased Precipitation Estimates with Reliability Information High-resolution Short- and Long-term Precipitation Forecasts High-resolution Short- and Long-term Hydrologic Forecasts Probabilistic & Dual- Polarized Radar QPE AlgorithmsProbabilistic & Dual- Polarized Radar QPE Algorithms Radar, Satellite, & Raingauge QPE Analysis TechniqueRadar, Satellite, & Raingauge QPE Analysis Technique Regional Ensemble WRF with DARegional Ensemble WRF with DA Improved RUCImproved RUC NOAH, N-LDASNOAH, N-LDAS ADSTAT, MPN, AN Nowcast AlgorithmsADSTAT, MPN, AN Nowcast Algorithms Distributed Hydro. ModelDistributed Hydro. Model Ensemble Streamflow Prediction modelEnsemble Streamflow Prediction model FFMP/SCANFFMP/SCAN Improved Forcing for Hydrologic ModelsImproved Forcing for Hydrologic Models Improved Water Management & Decision MakingImproved Water Management & Decision Making High-resolution Forecasts & WarningsHigh-resolution Forecasts & Warnings Improved Forcing for Hydro. Forecast ModelsImproved Forcing for Hydro. Forecast Models Improved Flash Flood Monitoring and WarningImproved Flash Flood Monitoring and Warning Water Excess-Deficit Decision MakingWater Excess-Deficit Decision Making

8 Hydrologic Services Key S&T Solutions 03 04 05060708 09 10 1112 02 Polariz. QPE Prob. QPE 8km WRF FFMP Deployment OTE DTE R&D Observations DA/Models Forecast Techniques Forecast Techniques Training PDSs in Ensemble fcsts, Polariz. radar, Distributed hydro. models Multisensor QPE Fld Fcst Maps GPM Distr. model ESP JCSDA Phased Array Radar QP+Hydro Nowcasts Dissemination Wireless, PDA Enabling Techn. GIS Hyperspectral Orographic model Hydro DA Graphical products Prob. QPF products Region Ens+DA Internet-Next GOES+POES

9 Hydrologic Services Outstanding R&D Needs Develop QPE Techniques That Optimally Blend Next-generation Radar, Satellite (e.g, GPM), and Rain Gauge DataDevelop QPE Techniques That Optimally Blend Next-generation Radar, Satellite (e.g, GPM), and Rain Gauge Data Improve Short-Term Radar-Satellite Precipitation Nowcasting Techniques Blended with NWP ForecastsImprove Short-Term Radar-Satellite Precipitation Nowcasting Techniques Blended with NWP Forecasts Develop High Resolution Hydrologic Forecast Models of Water Excess-Deficit at Ungauged LocationsDevelop High Resolution Hydrologic Forecast Models of Water Excess-Deficit at Ungauged Locations Develop Ensemble NWP and Hydrologic Model Forecasts with Associated Reliability InformationDevelop Ensemble NWP and Hydrologic Model Forecasts with Associated Reliability Information Improve NWP Model Physics and Increase Assimilation of Existing Observational DatasetsImprove NWP Model Physics and Increase Assimilation of Existing Observational Datasets Implement Hydrometeorological Testbeds to Demonstrate & Evaluate Next-Generation Datasets, Forecast Techniques, & ModelsImplement Hydrometeorological Testbeds to Demonstrate & Evaluate Next-Generation Datasets, Forecast Techniques, & Models

10 Hydrologic Services Summary R&D Needs Better QPEs and QPFs for Input to Advanced Hydrologic Forecast ModelsBetter QPEs and QPFs for Input to Advanced Hydrologic Forecast Models Probabilistic NWP and Hydrologic Models with Higher Resolution, Improved Physics and Data AssimilationProbabilistic NWP and Hydrologic Models with Higher Resolution, Improved Physics and Data Assimilation Hydrometeorological TestbedsHydrometeorological Testbeds Deploy High Resolution Hydrologic Models Enhance Flash Flood Monitoring Tools Location-specific Warnings Graphical, Probabilistic Products Deploy Dual Polarization & Satellite Upgrades Vision Minutes-to-Months Probabilistic Forecasts and Warnings of Water Excess & Deficits More Frequently at More Locations Increasing Performance On-going Training 2007 2012 2020 2002

11 Back-up Information

12 CitizensCitizens Emergency Managers, FEMAEmergency Managers, FEMA Water Resource Managers (dam & hydroelectric plant operators)Water Resource Managers (dam & hydroelectric plant operators) Water Transportation and NavigationWater Transportation and Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Construction IndustryConstruction Industry Transportation and CommerceTransportation and Commerce Municipal Public Works DepartmentsMunicipal Public Works Departments Federal Agency Cooperators (COE, USGS, USBR, EPA, USDA)Federal Agency Cooperators (COE, USGS, USBR, EPA, USDA) Recreational UsersRecreational Users Primary Customers & Partners

13 Key Products & Services Public river stage and flow forecasts of water excess & deficitPublic river stage and flow forecasts of water excess & deficit River and flash flood watches and warningsRiver and flash flood watches and warnings Forecast discussion productsForecast discussion products Radar and satellite precipitation estimatesRadar and satellite precipitation estimates Rain gauge data productsRain gauge data products Flash Flood Guidance productsFlash Flood Guidance products Radar-based very short range (0-3 hrs) QPF NWP-based QPF for short and medium ranges HPC/RFC forecaster value- added QPF products for days 1-5HPC/RFC forecaster value- added QPF products for days 1-5 MOS value-added QPFMOS value-added QPF Potential evaporation forecastsPotential evaporation forecasts

14 Hydrologic Services S & T Roadmap

15 Hydrologic Services Flash Flood Warning Skill Performance Measures

16 Hydrologic Services Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Skill Performance Measure

17 Hydrologic Services River Flood Warning Skill Performance Measures

Download ppt "Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services Richard Fulton NWS Science &"

Similar presentations

Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop

Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop
Report of the Q2 Short Range QPF Discussion Group Jon Ahlquist Curtis Marshall John McGinley - lead Dan Petersen D. J. Seo Jean Vieux.

Report of the Q2 Short Range QPF Discussion Group Jon Ahlquist Curtis Marshall John McGinley - lead Dan Petersen D. J. Seo Jean Vieux.
NOAA’s NWS and the USGS: Partnering to Meet America’s Water Information Needs Ernie Wells Hydrologic Services Division NOAA National Weather Service May.

NOAA’s NWS and the USGS: Partnering to Meet America’s Water Information Needs Ernie Wells Hydrologic Services Division NOAA National Weather Service May.
SIPR Dundee. © Crown copyright Scottish Flood Forecasting Service Pete Buchanan – Met Office Richard Maxey – SEPA SIPR, Dundee, 21 June 2011.

SIPR Dundee. © Crown copyright Scottish Flood Forecasting Service Pete Buchanan – Met Office Richard Maxey – SEPA SIPR, Dundee, 21 June 2011.
NOAA Hydrology Program Geoff Bonnin Office of Hydrologic Development NOAA National Weather Service 301-713-0640 x103 Geoff Bonnin.

NOAA Hydrology Program Geoff Bonnin Office of Hydrologic Development NOAA National Weather Service x103 Geoff Bonnin.
David Jorgensen Warnings R&D Division NSSL Hydro-Meteorology Research Summary.

David Jorgensen Warnings R&D Division NSSL Hydro-Meteorology Research Summary.
1 GOES Users’ Conference October 1, 2002 GOES Users’ Conference October 1, 2002 John (Jack) J. Kelly, Jr. National Weather Service Infusion of Satellite.

1 GOES Users’ Conference October 1, 2002 GOES Users’ Conference October 1, 2002 John (Jack) J. Kelly, Jr. National Weather Service Infusion of Satellite.
Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Fire Weather Services Paula Davidson Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Fire Weather Services Paula Davidson.

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Fire Weather Services Paula Davidson Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Fire Weather Services Paula Davidson.
Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Winter Weather Services Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Winter Weather Services Sam Contorno NWS S&T.

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Winter Weather Services Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Winter Weather Services Sam Contorno NWS S&T.
Ensemble Post-Processing and it’s Potential Benefits for the Operational Forecaster Michael Erickson and Brian A. Colle School of Marine and Atmospheric.

Ensemble Post-Processing and it’s Potential Benefits for the Operational Forecaster Michael Erickson and Brian A. Colle School of Marine and Atmospheric.
June 23, 2011 Kevin Werner NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center 1 NOAA / CBRFC Water forecasts and data in support of western water management.

June 23, 2011 Kevin Werner NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center 1 NOAA / CBRFC Water forecasts and data in support of western water management.
Jonathan J. Gourley Hydrometeorology Hydrometeorology: Local Testbeds and Field Results.

Jonathan J. Gourley Hydrometeorology Hydrometeorology: Local Testbeds and Field Results.
CPC’s U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook & Future Plans April 20, 2010 Brad Pugh, CPC.

CPC’s U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook & Future Plans April 20, 2010 Brad Pugh, CPC.
Science and Technology Infusion Plan For External Dissemination Science and Technology Infusion Plan For External Dissemination Suzanne Lenihan NWS S&T.

Science and Technology Infusion Plan For External Dissemination Science and Technology Infusion Plan For External Dissemination Suzanne Lenihan NWS S&T.
March 14, 2006Intl FFF Workshop, Costa Rica Weather Decision Technologies, Inc. Hydro-Meteorological Decision Support System Bill Conway, Vice President.

March 14, 2006Intl FFF Workshop, Costa Rica Weather Decision Technologies, Inc. Hydro-Meteorological Decision Support System Bill Conway, Vice President.
Warn on Forecast Briefing September 2014 Warn on Forecast Brief for NCEP planning NSSL and GSD September 2014.

Warn on Forecast Briefing September 2014 Warn on Forecast Brief for NCEP planning NSSL and GSD September 2014.
1 Hydro Training Status HSD Meeting February 23, 2010 Mark Glaudemans OCWWS/HSD.

1 Hydro Training Status HSD Meeting February 23, 2010 Mark Glaudemans OCWWS/HSD.
NOAA’s National Weather Service Flood and Flash Flood Warning Program Michelle Schmidt Western Region Hydrology and Climate Services Division.

NOAA’s National Weather Service Flood and Flash Flood Warning Program Michelle Schmidt Western Region Hydrology and Climate Services Division.
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 1 Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov)  Vision, mission, & roles.

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 1 Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (  Vision, mission, & roles.
1 10/17/2015 NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002 NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002 Paul Hirschberg Office of Science & Technology Paul Hirschberg Office.

1 10/17/2015 NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002 NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002 Paul Hirschberg Office of Science & Technology Paul Hirschberg Office.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google