1. Climate Change: General Introduction (Basic Introduction for Students with Some Science Knowledge) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood November 12, 2015

2. Getting Started Rood Blog “Just Temperature” Rood The Conversation “30 Years”

3. November 2013: Global TemperatureGlobal Temperature

4. August 2015: Global TemperatureGlobal Temperature

5. Overview Climate Change in a Nutshell Climate-Energy-Policy Interface

6. Some Basic References Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change –IPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy MakersIPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers –IPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy MakersIPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers Spencer Weart: The Discovery of Global Warming Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm Simple climate models http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm Paul Edwards: A Vast Machine Rood –Rood Climate Change ClassRood Climate Change Class Naomi Oreskes, Why Global Warming Scientists are Not Wrong

7. Climate Change in a Nutshell How and what do we know? Increase of carbon dioxide Some predictions Some observations (and attribution) How do we organize our responses? Reading about 4 degrees of warming –New et al. 2010, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc.New et al. 2010, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc.

8. Starting point: Scientific foundation The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on budgets of energy, mass, and momentum. (Conservation principles) The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on an enormous and diverse number of observations.

9. Starting point: A fundamental conclusion Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we observe that with virtual certainty –The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface has increased due to the addition of gases into the atmosphere that hold heat close to the surface. The increase in greenhouse gases is due to human activities, especially, burning fossil fuels.

10. Starting point: A fundamental conclusion Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we predict with virtual certainty –The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface will continue to rise because due to the continuing addition of gases into the atmosphere that hold heat close to the surface. The increase in greenhouse gases is due to human activities, especially, burning fossil fuels. –Historically stable masses of ice on land will melt. –Sea level will rise. –The weather will change.

11. Scientific Approach Climate science is observationally based Climate change is computational science –Relies on models

12. Models are an Important Part of Climate Science What is a Model? Model –A work or construction used in testing or perfecting a final product. –A schematic description of a system, theory, or phenomenon that accounts for its known or inferred properties and may be used for further studies of its characteristics. Numerical Experimentation –Given what we know, can we predict what will happen, and verify that what we predicted would happen, happened?

13. Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONSTHEORY PREDICTION PastFuturePresent Understanding Processes Evaluation, Verification PredictionsProjections Time

14. Summary Points: Science Theory / Empirical Evidence CO 2 and Water Vapor Hold Heat Near Surface Correlated Observations CO 2 and Temperature Observed to be strongly related on long time scales (> 100 years) CO 2 and Temperature not Observed to be strongly related on short time scales (< 10 years) Observations CO 2 is Increasing due to Burning Fossil Fuels Theory / Conservation Principle Mass and Energy Budgets  Concept of “Forcing” Prediction Earth Will Warm Validation Evaluation Consequences Land Use / Land Change Other Greenhouse Gases Aerosols Internal Variability Feedbacks Air Quality “Abrupt” Climate Change

15. Conservation principle: Energy Energy from the Sun Energy emitted by Earth (proportional to T) Earth at a certain temperature, T Stable Temperature of Earth could change from how much energy (production) comes from the sun, or by changing how we emit energy.

16. The first place that we apply the conservation principle is energy We reach a new equilibrium

17. The first place that we apply the conservation principle is energy We reach a new equilibrium Changes in orbit or solar energy changes this

18. Conservation principle: Energy Energy from the Sun Earth at a certain temperature, T Add some detail: Surface Insulating Blanket

19. The first place that we apply the conservation principle is energy We reach a new equilibrium Changing a greenhouse gas changes this

20. Some basics

21. Observed Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Data and more information Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas

22. The yearly cycle of CO 2

23. Presentation of some results These are drawn from the Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. I deliberately mix graphs from reports in 2001, 2007, and 2013. The messages from these reports are quite similar, which is a measure of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change –Consistent measure –Stable scientific understanding

24. IPCC (2007) projections for the next 100 years.

25. Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001

26. Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2005 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/ http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/ See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

27. IPCC 2013: Observed Temperature Rood: What would happen if we stopped emitting now? What does this mean for design and engineering?

28. IPCC 2007: The last ~100 years

29. Fig. 2.5. (State of Climate 2009) Time series from a range of indicators that would be expected to correlate strongly with the surface record. Note that stratospheric cooling is an expected consequence of greenhouse gas increases. A version of this figure with full references is available at www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-climate /.State of Climate 2009 www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-climate / Correlated behavior of different parameters

30. Quick Summary: IPCC(2013)

31. Length of Growing Season From Ranga B. Myneni, Boston University

32. Summary In Progress: Observations Observations of climate change (global warming) –Average surface temperature of planet is increasing –Ice is melting Glaciers Ice sheets –Sea level is rising Ocean is warming up From the melting ice –Weather is changing Coherent and convergent evidence

33. Summary In Progress: Projections Observations are consistent model projections –Past century –Evolving Model projections –Planet will warm –Ice will melt –Sea level will rise –Weather will change

34. Summary In Progress: Uncertainty Identified major categories of uncertainty –Scenario – future emissions –Model – deficiencies in simulation capability –Observational – quality of observations, inability to completely observe –Dynamic variability – internal variability due to transfer of energy between components of a complex system

35. Summary in Progress: Attribution Have suggested several aspects of extent and attribution of warming to greenhouse gases –Spatial distribution of warming –Decrease of temperature in the stratosphere –Changes in growing season –Changes in seasonal cycle of carbon dioxide –Warming in the ocean –….

36. What parameters/events do we care about? Temperature Water –Precipitation –Evaporation –Humidity Air Composition –Air quality –Aerosols –Carbon dioxide Winds Clouds / Sunlight Droughts Floods Extreme Weather The impact of climate change is Water for Ecosystems Water for People Water for Energy Water for Physical Climate

37. Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO 2 we put in the atmosphere. Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO 2 It’s not an either / or argument.

38. Some Points Science-based conclusions –The surface of the Earth has warmed and this warming is consistent with increasing greenhouse gases. CO 2 is most important. –The Earth will continue to warm. –The concept of “stabilization” of CO 2 is challenged by the consideration of ocean- land-atmosphere time scales Accumulated carbon dioxide is important. 1 trillion tons  440 ppm

39. Some Points Analysis and Opinion –Probability of stabilizing at less than 440, 560 … ppm is very small. If we decide to stabilize at 350, 440, then we need to figure out how to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere.

40. Some Points Analysis and Opinion –We need to start to plan for a world that is on average, warmer than the 2 degrees C that we have deemed as the threshold of “dangerous”. –We have an enormous opportunity provided by predictions of climate change. We have the choice of whether or not to take advantage of this opportunity on personal, professional, local, national, and international levels. The world 4 degrees warmer: January 13, 2011 issue of The Philosophical Transactions of the Royal SocietyThe Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society

41. Some Other References for the Interested Rood –Rood Blog “Just Temperature”Rood Blog “Just Temperature” –Rood Blog: Arctic Oscillation and Cold Times in Eastern North AmericaRood Blog: Arctic Oscillation and Cold Times in Eastern North America –Rood Blog: Trillion Tons of Carbon DioxideRood Blog: Trillion Tons of Carbon Dioxide –Rood Blog: Warming HiatusRood Blog: Warming Hiatus Lemos and Rood (2010) Koshland Science Museum: Global Warming

42. Problem Solving: Climate Energy Policy Interface

43. Climate-Energy-Policy Interface Problem solving: Reduction of complexity Policy (global): Goals Climate-Energy-Population-Consumption Notional Solution Strategy

44. Responses to the Climate Change Problem Autonomous/ Individual Policy/ Societal Reactive Anticipatory Adaptation Mitigation

45. Stabilization / Total burden of Greenhouse Gases Have this notion of controlling emissions to stabilize the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere at some value. –That is, there was some value of emissions that would match the loss of CO 2 into the plants, soil and oceans. –However, CO 2 is exchanged between plants, soil and ocean, and it takes a very long time for CO 2 amounts to decline. We know that the CO 2 that we emit will be with us essentially forever. Therefore, it is the total amount that we emit, rather than controlling emissions. –Arguably, we get to emit 1 trillion tons before climate change is “dangerous” –“Dangerous” = 2 degrees C average surface warming

46. What is short-term and long-term? 25 years 50 years75 years100 years0 years ENERGY SECURITY ECONOMY CLIMATE CHANGE Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime,... LONG SHORT There are short-term issues important to climate change. Election time scales

47. Managing Climate Complexity TEMPORAL NEAR-TERMLONG-TERM SPATIAL LOCAL GLOBAL WEALTH

48. Managing Climate Complexity TEMPORAL NEAR-TERMLONG-TERM SPATIAL LOCAL GLOBAL WEALTH Being Global, Long Term, Wealth connected, degree of difficulty is high

49. Framework Convention on Climate Change

50. The Rationalist and Policy Determine what is a tolerable ceiling for carbon dioxide. -Gives cap for a cap and trade system. -Tolerable ceilings have been posed as between 450 and 550 ppm. -Ice sheet melting and sea level? -Oceanic circulation / The Gulf Stream? -Ocean acidification? -Determine a tolerable measure of increased temperature -Copenhagen Accord (2009)  2 o C

51. A trillion tons of carbon We get to emit a trillion tons of carbon to avoid “dangerous” climate change Where does mitigation, reduction of emissions fit on the spatial and temporal scales?

52. Trillion Tons: Carbon VisualsCarbon Visuals

53. Mainstream approach – targets and timetables From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate FixR. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

54. Climate Change Relationships We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change. CLIMATE CHANGEENERGY The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas

55. Context: Energy and Climate Change Consumption // Population // Energy CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY POPULATION CONSUMPTION SOCIETAL SUCCESS Have to manage, eliminate the waste of energy production

56. People Engage in economic activity that Uses energy from Carbon emitting generation Population GDP per person Energy intensity of the economy Carbon intensity of energy P GDP/P TE/GDP C/TE Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C ------ ---- ---- P GDP TE Where do emissions come from? The “Kaya Identity” see IPCC WG 3IPCC WG 3 From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate FixR. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

57. Less people Smaller economy Increase efficiency Switch energy sources Population management Limit generation of wealth Do same or more with less energy Generate energy with less emissions Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C ------ ---- ---- P GDP TE FactorLever Population GDP per person Energy intensity Carbon intensity Approach to Policy GDPTechnology P GDP/P TE/GDP C/TE What tools do we have to reduce emissions? From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate FixR. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

58. So why has energy consumption increased so much? GDP/person is considered the “societal success” Energy use increases have been driven by growth in population and GDP/person. Energy use = (population)*(GDP/person) *(energy/unit GDP)

59. Pielke Jr. argues The need for technology to make solutions possible. Inequity of wealth, access to basic resources, desire for economic growth makes energy use an imperative Must go –From, we use too much energy, fossil fuels are cheap –To, we need more energy, fossil fuels are expensive

60. Past Emissions Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

61. The Stabilization Triangle Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

62. The Wedge Concept Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

63. Stabilization (2006) Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

64. CO 2 stabilization trajectory (2006) Stabilize at < 550 ppm. Pre-industrial: 275 ppm, current: ~400 ppm. Need 7 ‘wedges’ of prevented CO 2 emissions.

66. Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

67. Some Points Analysis and Opinion –Probability of stabilizing at less than 440, 560 … ppm is very small. If we decide to stabilize at 350, 440, then we need to figure out how to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere.

68. Some Points Analysis and Opinion –We need to start to plan for a world that is on average, warmer than the 2 degrees C that we have deemed as the threshold of “dangerous”. –We have an enormous opportunity provided by predictions of climate change. We have the choice of whether or not to take advantage of this opportunity on personal, professional, local, national, and international levels. The world 4 degrees warmer: January 13, 2011 issue of The Philosophical Transactions of the Royal SocietyThe Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society

69. Some Other References for the Interested Rood –Rood Blog “Just Temperature”Rood Blog “Just Temperature” –Rood Blog: Arctic Oscillation and Cold Times in Eastern North AmericaRood Blog: Arctic Oscillation and Cold Times in Eastern North America –Rood Blog: Trillion Tons of Carbon DioxideRood Blog: Trillion Tons of Carbon Dioxide –Rood Blog: Warming HiatusRood Blog: Warming Hiatus Lemos and Rood (2010) Koshland Science Museum: Global Warming

70. Backup Slides

71. Resources and Recommended Reading Stern Report: Primary Web Page Stern Report: Executive Summary Nordhaus: Criticism of Stern Report Tol and Yohe: Deconstruction of Stern ReportTol and Yohe: Deconstruction of Stern Report

72. Some carry away messages Determine what is a tolerable ceiling for carbon dioxide. -Gives cap for a cap and trade system. -Tolerable ceilings have been posed as between 450 and 550 ppm. -Ice sheet melting and sea level? -Oceanic circulation / The Gulf Stream? -Ocean acidification? -Determine a tolerable measure of increased temperature -Copenhagen Accord (2009)  2 o C

73. Dangerous climate change? Stern, 2006

74. World 4 Degrees Warmer Stern, 2006

75. McKinsey 2007