1. 2015 Fire Season Considerations and Outlook SWCC Predictive Services Updated May 18, 2015

2. Seasonal Fire Potential Main Factors 1. Drought 2. Fine Fuels Condition 3. Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation 4. Spring & early Summer Weather Patterns 5. Monsoon

3. Fire Season 2015: Drought Long-term drought generally prevails, but has backed off to “Moderate to Severe” & been mitigated entirely in some areas. Long-term drought generally prevails, but has backed off to “Moderate to Severe” & been mitigated entirely in some areas. Drought outlook calls for overall minimal change in current trends through July. (drier W, wetter E) Drought outlook calls for overall minimal change in current trends through July. (drier W, wetter E) A more variable & complex mosaic of drought conditions than recent years. A more variable & complex mosaic of drought conditions than recent years. Increased severity & volatility where drought persists, & increased complexity in tracking where drought is persisting and how impactful it will be on various fuels. Increased severity & volatility where drought persists, & increased complexity in tracking where drought is persisting and how impactful it will be on various fuels.

4. Fire Season 2015: Fine Fuels JUN2014 JUL2014 AUG2014 SEP2014 Substantial carryover of warm-season fine fuels driven by the 2014 monsoon season rainfall. Substantial carryover of warm-season fine fuels driven by the 2014 monsoon season rainfall. High fall soil moisture & late winter/early spring warmth and moisture contributed to widespread spring green-up. High fall soil moisture & late winter/early spring warmth and moisture contributed to widespread spring green-up. Good carry-over fine fuels + additional spring growth = significant amount of fine fuels to potentially carry fire. Good carry-over fine fuels + additional spring growth = significant amount of fine fuels to potentially carry fire. Fine fuel loading and continuity is normal to above normal. Fine fuel loading and continuity is normal to above normal.

5. Fire Season 2015: Fine Fuels JUN2014 JUL2014 AUG2014 SEP2014 Southeast New Mexico Example – Early April, 2015 Southeast New Mexico Example – Early April, 2015 There is likely more & greener grass in these areas now (in mid-May) then there was in early April

6. Fire Season 2015: DEC 2014-FEB2015 Temperature & Precipitation Overall mild with above normal precipitation. Some wide swings in temperature. Overall mild with above normal precipitation. Some wide swings in temperature. Snowpack split about 50/50 below normal>above normal…better high mountains and east. Snowpack split about 50/50 below normal>above normal…better high mountains and east. TEMP PRECIP

7. Fire Season 2015: MAR-APR 2015 Temperature & Precipitation Overall warm/mild with variable precipitation. Cool & relatively wet southeast portion of area. Overall warm/mild with variable precipitation. Cool & relatively wet southeast portion of area. Snowpack below normal across the board. “Best” in northern NM mountains. Snowpack below normal across the board. “Best” in northern NM mountains. TEMP PRECIP

8. Fire Season 2015: MAY – 1 st Half Temperature & Precipitation Seasonally cool and wet due to an unusually active storm pattern. Seasonally cool and wet due to an unusually active storm pattern. Extended fine fuels growing season, with re-green of many perennial grasses that may have cured earlier. Extended fine fuels growing season, with re-green of many perennial grasses that may have cured earlier. TEMP PRECIP L L L H UPPER LEVEL PATTERN – TOWARDS END OF 1st WEEK OF MAY 2015 H L

9. Fire Season 2015: MAY – 2 nd Half Temperature & Precipitation Outlook Active trough pattern will maintain cool temperatures area-wide & above normal rainfall chances focused east and north. Active trough pattern will maintain cool temperatures area-wide & above normal rainfall chances focused east and north. Little to no alignment of critical fire weather conditions, like wind & dryness. Little to no alignment of critical fire weather conditions, like wind & dryness. Drier across southern AZ towards month’s end. Drier across southern AZ towards month’s end. TEMP PRECIP L L L H H FORECAST MEAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN – MAY 22-28, 2015 The month of MAY will average cool and wet for almost the entire area. (Drier parts of far southern AZ into SW NM.) H

10. Fire Season 2015: Late Spring & Early Summer Large-scale Weather Pattern Impacts: Sustained hot, windy & dry conditions unlikely. Hotter & drier conditions will eventually develop in June, focused over AZ, while it remains more moist further east. Critical weather will be increasing pre-monsoon lightning potential in the hotter/drier environment across AZ. Impacts: Sustained hot, windy & dry conditions unlikely. Hotter & drier conditions will eventually develop in June, focused over AZ, while it remains more moist further east. Critical weather will be increasing pre-monsoon lightning potential in the hotter/drier environment across AZ. Last Week of May 2015 L L H H L H L H L H L L L H H L H L L L H Weekly time series of potential upper level pattern for late MAY>late JUNE shows active trough pattern giving way to a building ridge as the jet stream lifts northward. Weekly time series of potential upper level pattern for late MAY>late JUNE shows active trough pattern giving way to a building ridge as the jet stream lifts northward. Shift away from cool & wet towards eventual monsoon pattern. Shift away from cool & wet towards eventual monsoon pattern. A delay in this ‘shift’ could ultimately delay the monsoon onset. A delay in this ‘shift’ could ultimately delay the monsoon onset. L H L L H H H = Jet Stream 1st Week of June 2015 2nd Week of June 2015 3rd Week of June 2015

11. Fire Season: Typical Monsoon Onset Increasing moisture associated with the monsoon onset is generally related to the end of the large fire season in the Southwest. Increasing moisture associated with the monsoon onset is generally related to the end of the large fire season in the Southwest. Typical moisture increase is in June for the eastern plains and the 1 st >3 rd week in July for much of the rest of the area. Typical moisture increase is in June for the eastern plains and the 1 st >3 rd week in July for much of the rest of the area. Median Dates for “End of Large Fire Season”

12. Fire Season 2015: Monsoon? Current information suggests an overall wetter monsoon period, but a possible delayed onset in July & another drier period in SEP. Current information suggests an overall wetter monsoon period, but a possible delayed onset in July & another drier period in SEP. This, plus the signal for warmth across the far west, supports an extension of AZ fire season during July…and a possible fall fire season. This, plus the signal for warmth across the far west, supports an extension of AZ fire season during July…and a possible fall fire season. JULY-SEPT 2015 – Temp & Rainfall Relative to Average

13. 2015 Fire Season Factors Summary 1. Drought – Conditions/trends holding generally steady, at Moderate- Severe. (Larger impact west, minimal impact east) Mosaic of drought impacts will add complexity in terms of fire potential. 2. Fine Fuels Condition – Normal to above normal loading and continuity area-wide. Potential for highest fine fuels component since 2005. 3. Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation – Mild and variably wet winter, then a cool and wet spring. Some notably drier areas in AZ. 4. Spring & early Summer Weather Pattern – Active jet stream weakening and shifting northwest in JUN. Cool and wet spring transitioning into a early summer that will be warmer/drier west and still cooler/more moist east. Potential for impactful lightning outbreaks focused west. 5. Monsoon – Typical seasonal moisture onset & impacts eastern half. Onset possibly delayed a few weeks west.

14. Fire Season 2015: Combined Fire Potential Factors 1. Drought 2. Fine Fuels Condition 3. Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation 4. Spring & early Summer Weather Patterns 5. Monsoon (not included) Only factors which would support above normal fire potential are highlighted. Only factors which would support above normal fire potential are highlighted. Alignment clearly focused across the western half of the area. Alignment clearly focused across the western half of the area.

15. Fire Season 2015: Number of Factors Aligning to Support Above Normal Seasonal Fire Potential FACTORS: 1. Drought 2. Fine Fuels Condition 3. Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation 4. Spring & early Summer Weather Patterns 5. Monsoon Monsoon factor excluded, so these numbers represent total out of first 4 factors. Monsoon factor excluded, so these numbers represent total out of first 4 factors. Strongest alignment of conditions across southern & western AZ during the mid JUN>JUL time frame. Strongest alignment of conditions across southern & western AZ during the mid JUN>JUL time frame. Weak>>Strong ALIGNMENT

16. 2015 Fire Season Potential Summary These factors point to a delayed fire season onset area-wide, with Below Normal fire potential east and Normal to Above Normal fire potential emerging across the west during June. Fire season may extend a few weeks later then normal in July across the west due to a delayed monsoon onset. These factors point to a delayed fire season onset area-wide, with Below Normal fire potential east and Normal to Above Normal fire potential emerging across the west during June. Fire season may extend a few weeks later then normal in July across the west due to a delayed monsoon onset. Below Normal fire potential for the entire eastern half of the area. Below Normal fire potential for the entire eastern half of the area. Above Normal fire potential to develop across mid and lower elevations of Arizona (beneath the Mogollon Rim) during June and persist into or through much of July. Above Normal fire potential to develop across mid and lower elevations of Arizona (beneath the Mogollon Rim) during June and persist into or through much of July. Normal fire potential to develop across the remainder of Arizona and far western NM during June>July. Above Normal fire potential could expand to include the higher elevations along the Mogollon Rim in July, prior to a delayed monsoon onset. Normal fire potential to develop across the remainder of Arizona and far western NM during June>July. Above Normal fire potential could expand to include the higher elevations along the Mogollon Rim in July, prior to a delayed monsoon onset. Fine fuels conditions & weather pattern impacts, including the monsoon onset, are the likely primary drivers of this season. Windy & dry conditions should not be a major factor, but increasingly impactful lightning in abundant fine fuels should be expected across the west during June & July. Fine fuels conditions & weather pattern impacts, including the monsoon onset, are the likely primary drivers of this season. Windy & dry conditions should not be a major factor, but increasingly impactful lightning in abundant fine fuels should be expected across the west during June & July.

17. Final seasonal outlook…Please consult monthly & 7-day outlooks! Final seasonal outlook…Please consult monthly & 7-day outlooks!

18. END SWCC Predictive Services Next Update: January 2016! Contact: SWCC Predictive Services 505-842-3473 Consult the Outlooks Page (Below) for Updated Information Through Fire Season: http://gacc.nifc.gov/swcc/predictive/outlooks/outlooks.htm