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Overpopulation Global Issue Presentations 2013-2014
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What is the overpopulation issue? “Man begets, but land does not beget” -Cecil Rhodes Increasing population Decreasing resources Population density Population is higher than the carrying capacity What is overpopulation?
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The world population is increasing along with the average life expectancy. Life Expectancy 76 – 2045-2050 82 – 2095-2100 89 – 2100 in developed nations (World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision) United Nations The Issue
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7 billion – October 31 st 2011 (United Nations) Growth rate: Worldometers – 1.1% CIA World Factbook (2012) – 1.095% +80 million per year Growth rate peak – 2.19% in 1963 Statistics
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1 billion – 1804 2 billion – 1927 3 billion – 1960 4 billion – 1974 5 billion – 1987 6 billion – 1999 7 billion – 2011 Previous milestones
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Sigmoid Population Growth
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Human Population Growth Source: Worldometers.info
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+1 billion in the next 12 years 8.1 billion – 2025 9.6 billion – 2050 Developing regions 5.9 billion – 8.2 billion (2013-2050) China and India: 1.45 billion (2028) 50% of population growth: Africa Stabilize at 10 billion - 2062 Predictions (United Nations)
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Carrying capacity – 10 billion (2062) +75 – 80 million per year Current population 7 billion 75,000,000/7,000,000,000 = 0.0107 x 100 = 1.07% 80,000,000/7,000,000,000 = 0.0114 x 100 = 1.14% Mathematics
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Future Population = N=N 0 e kt Time = Rate = Exponential Growth and Decay
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ln = natural logarithm: log to the base e e = an irrational number (2.7182818…) (Euler) t = time k or r = growth rate (births – deaths) N = future population N 0 = initial population Variables Explained
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Finding the time that the population will reach 10 billion (carrying capacity). Calculations 10=7e (0.011)(t) 1.429=e (0.011)(t) ln(1.429)=ln(e (0.011)(t) ) ln(1.429)=0.011t ln(1.429)/0.011 = t t ≈ 32.452 Property of Logarithms: ln(e x ) = x
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Future population = N=N 0 e kt 10 = 7e (0.011)(32.452) = 10.003 Verifying Calculations Future population (billions) Current population (billions) Growth rate Time (from previous calculation)
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UN – 2062-2013 = 49 years N=N 0 e kt 7e (0.011)(49) = 12 billion ln(10/7)/49=0.00727 If the population will reach 10 billion in 49 years, the average growth per year will be 0.7% UN Estimates
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