1. Risk Assessment and Risk Management The Hague, Netherlands, 3 November 2014 Janani Vivekananda Head of Environment, Climate Change and Security Programme International Alert

2. 1. The compound nature of risks 2. Uncertainty and a few certainties 3. Challenges of applying risk assessments to Fragile States 4. How to prioritise actions

3. Seven Compound Climate-Fragility Risks adelph i

4. Syria: Drought – displacement – urban pressures Source: Years of Living Dangerously 2014

5. Fragility Spectrum Failed State/In conflict Post- Conflict/Transitional Resilient State

6. Resilience states: have the capacity and legitimacy of governing a population and its territory. can adapt to change and uncertainty. build constructive relationships with their citizens, maintain functioning institutions, and provide basic services. can absorb shocks and handle stresses peacefully while maintaining political stability and preventing violence.

8. …the flipside If climate change is a ‘risk multiplier’ which interacts with pre- existing social, economic and political risks, making peace and stability harder to achieve, then addressing the pre-existing root causes of vulnerability will help build resilience to climate change and contribute to development, peace and stability.

9. 1. The compound nature of risks 2. Uncertainty and a few certainties 3. Challenges of applying risk assessments to Fragile States 4. How to prioritise actions 5. Conclusion

10. Uncertainties and Certainties: How much average temperatures will increase.What the impacts of rapid climate change will be.What will be agreed at Paris Climate impacts will play out over the next 20 years regardless of Paris The poorest will be the most vulnerable

11. Elements of Risk Adapted from IPCC 2007 Vulnerability Sensitivity Availability and importance of the affected resource Exposure Rate and variation of climate change Adaptive Capacity Context and impact specific Dependent on climate change impacts and environment Dependent on governance and stability

12. 1. The compound nature of risks 2. Uncertainty and a few certainties 3. Challenges of applying risk assessments to Fragile States 4. How to prioritise actions

13. Understanding complexity N. Shresta/International Alert Whose Risk? How are the risks interlinked? That are the consequences on existing stresses?

14. 1. The compound nature of risks 2. Uncertainty and a few certainties 3. Challenges of applying risk assessments to Fragile States 4. How to prioritise actions

15. How to prioritise: some guiding questions 1. Does the intervention directly or indirectly affect resilience? 2. Are the outcomes of the intervention sensitive to weather? 3. Does the intervention have long-term effects? 4. Is it difficult to reverse or retrofit the intervention or its effects? 5. Are the stakes high?

16. Conclusion Understanding the context Consideration of where and how decisions are made Doing no harm to existing dimensions of resilience

17. Janani Vivekananda Head of Climate Change and Security International Alert, London jvivekananda@international-alert.org +44 207 627 6823 www.international-alert.org