1. Reut Methodology Day

2. Relevancy Gaps Closing Relevancy Gaps Identifying Relevancy Gaps Why Relevancy Gaps aren’t closed How Relevancy Gaps form Mindset Divergent Reality

3. How Societies choose to Fail or Succeed Hostile NeighborsDecreased support from Friends Climate ChangeEnvironmental Damage How Society Responds to Problems

4. The Case of the Greenland Norse Climate Change: Little Ice Age Hostile Neighbors: The Innuit Arrive 1000 CE ; Disappear 1450 Approx 5,000 people in 2 Settlements Communal, violent hierarchical & conservative More European than Europe Trade Disengagement from Europe Environmental Damage Inability to Adapt

5. Why Societies Collapse Don’t Anticipate No prior experience Reason by false analogy Don’t Perceive Distant Managers Some problems imperceptible Slow Trend Concealed Don’t Attempt to Solve Status Quo supports deeply held value Rational Bad Behavior Group Denial (Work Avoidance) Dislike those who complain Don’t Solve (Perceive & Attempt) Efforts too little too late Solution exists but unviable Beyond present capacity to solve

6. Preventing Predictable Surprises Problem Appears Worsens Significant Costs to Solving (Benefits delayed) Tendency to Maintain Status Quo Vocal Minority vs. Change Definite cost in present; uncertain future cost Cognitive Generally Optimistic Overly Discount Future Reluctant to change status quo Organizational Structural barriers 2 effective info processing Political Political Losers Mobilize Scanning / Integration + Learning Failures Aviation SecurityNew Security Oversight expensive Travel Delays Airlines Block Reform9.11

7. Lanir: Between Situational + Fundamental Situational: Lack of Information CognitiveOrganizationalPolitical Fundamental: Incompatibility of self perception with reality

8. Where does it meet Reut? Don’t Anticipate Don’t Perceive Don’t Attempt to Solve Don’t Solve (Perceive & Attempt) Cognitive Organizational Political Why Relevancy Gaps aren’t closed Mindset Divergent Reality