1. Juba Regions Deyr 2010/11 January 26, 2011 Information for Better Livelihoods Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

2. Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations - Normal access in Buale, Sakow, north of Jilib district of M. Juba and Afmadow, Hagar, Jammame, Kismayo districts in L. Juba; - Key informants in south Jilib including Jilib town and the entire Badhadhe district

3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Southern and Lower Juba Agropastoralists)  Southern Agropastoral are more Agro pastoral Afmadow, L. Juba, than those in the M. Juba and Jammame (L.Juba) who are more agriculturalists. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment, employment, crop sales; main source of food is own production and purchases  Lower Juba Agropastoral are more pastoral. Main source of income: sales of livestock products and wild foods; main source of food: own production and purchases.  Riverine (M. and L. Juba) Main source of income of poor : Crop sales, wage labour, self-employment (collection of bush products) Main sources of food of poor: Own production and market purchase Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income 2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southeast and Southern Inland Pastoralists)  Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products  Primary sources of food of poor: purchase  Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, cattle, sheep/goat

4. Start of Season: started late, 1 st dekad of November. However, some light showers were received in 3 rd Dekad of October 2010. Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Very poor in terms of coverage and intensity; long dry spell in November-December months. Amount of Rainfall: Insignificant Climate Performance of the Deyr 2010/11 Rainfall

5. Climate Vegetation Conditions Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

6. Climate Vegetation Conditions Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

7.  Civil Security Situation: Relatively stable but tense  Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: High impact Drastically reduced humanitarian access and interventions. Pull out (August-Sept) of 2 major international NGOs (World vision and Horn relief) mainly implementing health and nutrition, wash and livelihood interventions. Civil Insecurity Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

8. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production Estimates Juba Hoose (Lower) Cereal Production Estimates Districts Deyr 2011 Production in MT Total Cereal Deyr 2011 as % of Deyr 2010 Deyr 2011 as % of Deyr PWA (1995-2009) Deyr 2011 as % of 5 year average (2005-2009) MaizeSorghum Afmadow 32- 26%15%78% Hagar ------ Badhaadhe ------ Jamaame 75 7%14%32% Kismaayo 20 14%10%9% Juba Hoose (Lower) Deyr 2011 Total 1270 7%9%18% Juba Dhexe (Middle) Cereal Production Estimates Districts Deyr 2011 Production in MT Total Cereal Deyr 2011 as % of Deyr 2010 Deyr 2011 as % of Deyr PWA (1995-2009) Deyr 2011 as % of 5 year average (2005-2009) MaizeSorghum Bu'aale 60- 3%6% Jilib 60- 2%5%8% Saakow 40- 1%2%1% Juba Dhexe (Middle) Deyr 2011 Total 1600 2%4%

9. Agriculture Cereal Production Estimates Plus Off-season Maize Juba Hoose (Lower) Cereal Production Estimates plus Off-Season DistrictsDeyr 2011 Production in MTTotal Cereal Deyr 2011 as % of Deyr 2010 Deyr 2011 as % of Deyr PWA (1995-2009) Deyr 2011 as % of 5 year average (2005-2009) Afmadow 32- 26%15%78% Hagar ------ Badhaadhe ------ Jamaame 115 5%14%12% Kismaayo 20 14%10%9% Juba Hoose (Lower) Deyr 2011 Total 1670 5%10%12% Juba Dhexe (Middle) Off-Season Cereal Production Estimates plus Off-Season Districts Deyr 2011 Production in MT Total Cereal Deyr 2011 as % of Deyr 2010 Deyr 2011 as % of Deyr PWA (1995-2009) Deyr 2011 as % of 5 year average (2005-2009) MaizeSorghum Bu'aale 100- 3%6% Jilib 120- 2%5%8% Saakow 68- 1%2%1% Juba Dhexe (Middle) Deyr 2011 Total 2880 3%6%5%

10. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates (L/M Juba) Deyr Cereal Production Estimates in Somalia Regions Deyr 2010 Production in MT RiceCowpeaSesameOnions Off-Season Cowpea Off-Season Sesame PepperTotal Juba Dhexe (Middle) 050150 050150 0400 Juba Hoose (Lower) 050250 00 100 0400 TOTAL 01004000502500800

11. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production in Middle Juba Regional Trend in Deyr Cereal Production (Middle Juba) Regional Trend in Deyr Cereal Production Plus Off-season (Middle Juba)

12. Agriculture Annual Cereal Production in Middle Juba Regional Trend in Annual Cereal Production (Middle Juba)

13. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production Plus Off season in Lower Juba Regional Trend in Deyr Cereal Production (Lower Juba) Regional Trend in Deyr Cereal Production Plus Off-season (Lower Juba)

14. Agriculture Annual Cereal Production in Lower Juba Regional Trend in Annual Cereal Production (Lower Juba)

15. Agriculture Deyr 2010 Assessment Photos Planted Farms Not Germinated, Buale, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Recede Cultivation in Dhesheks, Buale, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Planted Farms Not Germinated, Jammame, L. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Insignificant recede cultivation, Jambarow Jammame, L. Juba, Dec ‘10.

16. Deyr ’10/11 Local Cereal Flow: Cereals come from Juba riverine (maize) and Sakow agropastoral (sorghum) into the interior of the region. Agriculture

17. Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices in Juba Regions Regional Trend in cereal prices (maize) - Middle Juba Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (maize) in Lower Juba Source: FSNAU FIDS Dec 2010 Source: FSNAU FIDS Dec 2010, R=1. Factors influencing cereal prices: Poor maize and sorghum production in agropastoral High maize demand (Juba inland)

18. Agriculture Labour Rates and Availability Factors Influencing Wage Labor rates in agricultural districts. Availability: Reduced agricultural activities following the seasonal rainfall failure. Limited agricultural inputs, which curtailed irrigational infrastructure Low capital for investments hindering employment opportunities. Middle Juba Lower Juba

19. Agriculture Regional Trends in Terms of Trade in Juba Regions Source: FSNAU FIDS Dec 2010 Middle Juba Lower Juba Factor Influencing ToT decline: Significant increase in maize prices. Decreased daily labour wage rates

20. Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, Dec ’10 Poor pasture across the region except river banks which is infested with tsetse fly. Poor water availability in the key pastoral areas. Poor livestock body conditions except camel.

21. Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production RegionConception (Deyr ’10/11) Calving/ kidding (Deyr ’10/11) Milk production (Deyr ’10/11) Expected calving/ kidding Jan-June ‘11 Trends in Herd Size (Deyr ’10/11) LivelihoodsLivestock species Juba Camel: Low Cattle: Low to None Sheep/Goats: None to low Camel: Medium Cattle: High to Medium Sheep/Goats: Medium to High Cattle: Very Poor Camel: Average Camel: Medium to Low Cattle: Medium Sheep/Goats: None to Low Southeast Pastoral Cattle: Same as Baseline. Increased by 6% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to decline by 11% till Jun. ‘11 Sheep/goats: Above Baseline. Increased by 3% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to decline by 3% till Jun. ‘11 Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: Same as Baseline. Decreased by 9% between Jun – Dec ’10 and expected to sustain unchanged till Jun. ‘11 Cattle: Below Baseline. Sustained unchanged between Jun – Dec ’10 with the similar pattern expected till Jun. ‘11 Sheep/goats: Below Baseline. Decreased by 9% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to increase by 3% till Jun ‘11 Juba Agro- pastoral Cattle: Same as Baseline. Increased by 6% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to decline by 11% till Jun. ‘11 Sheep/goats: Above Baseline. Increased by 3% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to decline by 3% till Jun. ‘11

22. Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos Poor Cattle Body Condition. Dashek Wamo, Afmadow, L. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Cattle Migration from North Sakow to Jilib Riverine, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘’10 Poor Lactating Cattle Body Condition. Jilib, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. 10.

23. Livestock Regional Trends in Livestock Prices in Juba regions Regional Trend in Cattle Prices in Middle Juba Regional Trend in Cattle Prices in Lower Juba Middle Juba. Lower Juba. Factors Influencing local cattle prices: Disruption of Garissa market due to poor Deyr 2010/11 rainfall performance resulting in poor pasture and shortage of water along the livestock trekking route to Garissa market. Poor livestock body condition

24. Livestock Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Between Cattle/Maize in Juba regions Regional Trend in TOT between Cattle/Maize in Middle Juba Regional Trend in TOT between Cattle/Maize in Lower Juba Factors influencing Terms of Trade (cattle to maize): High cereal prices Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions and low demand Disruption of Garissa market

25. Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Factors Influencing Commercial Import Price Increases (last six months) Increasing global prices Increased taxation on commercial imports due to growing illegal tax collections Failed local cereal production and the need to import more commercial goods. Markets

26. Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings in Middle and Lower Juba Regions RegionNutrition Surveys (Oct - ec10) Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12.5cm & <11.5 cm) Health Information System Info TFC/OTP/ SFC Other relevant information – Key driving factors Summary of analysis and change from Gu 10 ML JubaJuba Pastoral GAM =30.7% SAM =7.8%.5% (FSNAU & partners, December ’10, R=1) Juba Riverine GAM =29.7% SAM = 6.4% (FSNAU & partners, December10, R=1) Juba Agro- pastoral GAM =26.1% and SAM of 6.2% (FSNAU & partners, December10, R=1) Kismayo IDP - N=1185 MUAC<12.5cm or oedema= 12.4%. R=2 MUAC<11.5cm or oedema= 0.7%. R=2 HIS data show high (>20%) and fluctuating number of acutely malnourished children reported in facilities in all livelihood s ( Source: SRCS, AFREC, HIS Data, Sept- December 10 R=3) OTP admission show mixed trends, in the number of severely malnourished children admitted in OTP –with high and increasing trends in pastoral, high and stable number in agro- pastoral and high and fluctuating in the riverine livelihood ‘s facilities ( Source: SRCS, AFREC, MSF, HIS Data, Jan-June’10 R=3) Aggravating factors -High morbidity – 21.8%,22.6% and 39.4% reportedly ill in pastoral, agro-pastoral and riverine livelihoods respectively -616 cases of AWD reported in November10 in the two regions -Limited access to food due to drought and insecurity - Increasing food insecurity at the Household Limited/disrupted humanitarian assistance -Poor child feeding practice -Poor access to safe water and sanitation facilities -Reduced milk access due to outmigration and low livestock production Negative impact of the withdrawal of INGO providing health and nutrition services in Aug.’10 Restricted immunization activities Mitigating factors -Limited social support from the local community & I/LNGO Sale of fodder among riverine provides income for food/non-food items Increased charcoal burning for income (but with long term negative impact on environment) Juba Pastoral – Very Critical- deteriorated from Serious in Gu10 Juba Riverine Very Critical –No change from Gu’10. Juba Agro-pastoral: Very Critical – Deteriorated from Critical levels in Gu10

27. Nutrition Nutrition Situation Estimates Juba Regions Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2011 Juba Regions Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2010

28. IPC Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation Key IPC Reference Outcomes: Riverine – Sakow, Jilib & Jamame (HE: 100%P, AFLC: Middle 50%M); Buale (HE: 100%P, AFLC: 25%M); Agropastoral and S.E Pastoral – High Risk, HE: 25%P, AFLC: 75%P. Acute malnutrition: Critical to Very Critical Food Access: Limited access of food and availability are average except Juba Riverine Water Access: Severe water shortage Destitution/Displacement: Emerged destitutions and seeking refuge to Kenya Refugee camps Coping: Distress coping strategies Livelihood Assets: Good production in Agropastoral areas and livestock recovery in terms of body condition and livestock reproduction and holdings Main Causes:  Consecutive seasons of average rainfall  poor crop productions in Agropastoral areas  Poor livestock production due to limited pasture and water availability  South-East Pastoral, Lower Juba Agropastoral and southern Agropastoral: deteriorated due to poor livestock and crop production, low livestock prices and relatively low ToT between cereals and local quality goats  Juba Riverine: Crop production failure due to severe moisture stress MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONES MAP 1: IPC Gu 2010 MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11

29. IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Districts Affected Regions and District UNDP 2005 Rural Population Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Gu 2010Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Middle JubaBu'aale45,90107,0008,0009,000 Jilib83,4645,00011,00012,00013,000 Saakow/Salagle54,7734,0006,00010,0008,000 SUB-TOTAL184,1389,00024,00030,000 Lower JubaAfmadow/Xagar44,212007,0003,000 Badhaadhe32,828007,0002,000 Jamaame106,7346,00014,00012,00017,000 Kismaayo77,334009,0006,000 SUB-TOTAL261,1086,00014,00035,00028,000 GRAND TOTAL445,24615,00038,00065,00058,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE53,000123,000

30. IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Livelihood Zones Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Estimated Population by Livelihood Zones Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Gu 2010Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Middle JubaCoastal pastoral: goats & cattle10,9840000 Juba Pump Irrigated Riv17,2974,0006,0003,0006,000 Lower Juba Agro-Past8,780002,0001,000 South-East Pastoral18,232004,0001,000 Southern Agro-Past46,8160012,0004,000 Southern Inland Past22,7250000 Southern Juba Riv59,3045,00018,0009,00018,000 SUB-TOTAL184,1389,00024,00030,000 Lower JubaCoastal pastoral: goats & cattle33,3540000 Lower Juba Agro-Past70,1830014,0007,000 South-East Pastoral38,810009,0003,000 Southern Agro-Past11,637003,0001,000 Southern Inland Past50,1190000 Southern Juba Riv57,0056,00014,0009,00017,000 SUB-TOTAL261,1086,00014,00035,00028,000 GRAND TOTAL445,24615,00038,00065,00058,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE53,000123,000

31. District UNDP 2005 Urban Population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Deyr 10/11 Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Deyr 10/11 Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Deyr 10/11 Middle Juba Bu'aale13,58807,00052 Jilib29,951015,00050 Saakow/Salagle11,20004,00036 Sub-Total 54,739026,00047 Lower Juba Afmadow/Xagar 7,1222,000028 Badhaadhe 5,8122,000034 Jamaame 22,4158,000036 Kismaayo 89,33316,000018 Sub-Total 124,68228,000022 IPC Estimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District

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