1. World Bank Group and the Global Water Partnership Pilot Training for Strengthening Model Capacity September 28 – October 2, 2015, Almaty, Kazakhstan Aral Sea Basin Management Model (ASBmm) Модель управления водными ресурсами бассейна Аральского моря Science-Information Centre of Interstate Commission for Water Coordination in Central Asia – НИЦ МКВК A.G.Sorokin, sorant@mail.ru

2. The main achievement is realization of water consumption of region’s countries without conflict. Risks: climate change, risks caused by the human factor: - lack of coordination in tactics and policy on the water and energy resources management, - lack of joint viewpoint among countries about development of the new hydropower stations, - lack of joint agreements on the water- and energy-saving, - lack of agreed tools for assessment of consequences of governance and development of joint activity. Activities: water-and energy- saving, turn to long-term flow regulation, application of economical mechanisms legal guarantees (prevention and compensation of damages and others), application of the flow regulation rules.

3. Anthropogenic factors determining flow probability and river regimes Scenarios of construction of new large reservoirs with hydropower 2010 – 2015 Toktogul + Kairakum + Kambarata 1 Nurek + Roghun Operation regimes of large reservoirs with hydro power KIR and TAJ Irrigation Unrealistic Energy BASIC SCENARIO Potential conflict between KIR and UZB (possibly KAZ, TAJ ) Potential conflict between TAJ and TUR, UZB Energy- irrigation (agreed) Possible consensus Possible options for distribution of regulating functions among reservoirs, need to be studied

4. Assessment of current state Concepts of national water sector development in CA countries Assessment - Management program Vision for 2030-2050 Available water resources: volume, regimes, losses Climate impact (scenarios) Water requirements: volumes, regimes, crop requirements, etc. Environmental demands: norms, sustainability Analysis of numerical exercise results, assessment on the basis of indicators Policy scenarios Modeling and calculations: balance, consensus Shortage and excess of water resources, Adaptation to climate change – long-term regulation of river flow, water conservation, etc. Socio-economic assessment of policy scenarios – opportunity costs, prevented damage, trade-offs and compensations Socio-economic development scenarios Water allocation New reservoirs and HPP Rules of flow regulation in transboundary rivers Prices Agricultural policy - food security, export orientation Demography Irrigation areas and changed cropping patterns Innovations and water conservation Example of ASBmm application for building and Assessing scenarios Hydropower demands

5. Оценка текущего состояния Концепци и развития водн ых сектор ов стран ЦА Оценка - Стратегия развития Видение на 2030-2050 годы Располагаемые водные ресурсы Сценарии влияние климата Требования на воду : объемы, режимы, водопотребление с/х культур и др. Экологические требования Анализ результатов численных исследований Политические сценарии Моделирование Дефициты и избытки водных ресурсов, Адаптационные меры к изменению климата – многолетнее регулирование стока рек, сбережение воды и др. Социально-экономическая оценка сценариев – упущенные выгоды, предупрежденные ущербы, компромиссы и компенсации Сценарии социально- экономического развития Вододеление Строительство новых водохранилищ и ГЭС Правила регулирования стока рек Цены Аграрная политика - продовольственная безопасность, ориентация на экспорт Демография Требования секторов экономики Площади орошения и состава с/х культур Инновации и сбережение водных ресурсов Пример использования ASBmm для анализа сценариев Потребности гидроэнергетики