1. N ETWORK T ECHNOLOGY R EPLACEMENT: P ERFORMANCE B ASED A NALYSIS Saad Haj Bakry, PhD, CEng, FIEE

2. A CKNOWLEDGMENT The work presented here is based on graduate research at King Saud University performed by Rafiq Jamal Al-Deen and Supervised by Saad Haj Bakry The work presented here is based on graduate research at King Saud University performed by Rafiq Jamal Al-Deen and Supervised by Saad Haj Bakry Network Replacement

3. C ONTENTS Network Replacement THE P ROBLEM F UTURE W ORK O BJECTIVES A NALYTICAL M ETHODOLOGY C ASE S TUDY R EFERENCES

4. P ROBLEM: B ASICS Network Replacement Normal Replacement Older Technology Expected Service Life Newer Technology Early Replacement New Capabilities: High Speed: ATM Multimedia Customer Need Problem

5. P ROBLEM: A VAILABLE L ITERATURE Network Replacement P RINCIPLES: ITU Network Planning: Replacement Criteria (Technical / Economic Issues) Engineering Economy: Service Life (Based on Cash Flow) “ Multi-disciplinary ” Problem P RINCIPLES: ITU Network Planning: Replacement Criteria (Technical / Economic Issues) Engineering Economy: Service Life (Based on Cash Flow) “ Multi-disciplinary ” Problem R ECENT W ORK: Emphasizing Technical Superiority Emphasizing New Economic Benefits Technical / Economic Evaluations Practical & Specific Cases R ECENT W ORK: Emphasizing Technical Superiority Emphasizing New Economic Benefits Technical / Economic Evaluations Practical & Specific Cases Problem

6. P ROBLEM: G AP Network Replacement T ECHNICAL: “ Specifications ” considered “ Network Flow & Performance ” related to “ Services Transactions ” ignored T ECHNICAL: “ Specifications ” considered “ Network Flow & Performance ” related to “ Services Transactions ” ignored E CONOMIC: General Cost / Benefits considered “ Cost / Benefits ” related to “ Transactions & Performance ” ignored E CONOMIC: General Cost / Benefits considered “ Cost / Benefits ” related to “ Transactions & Performance ” ignored A PPROACH: “ Analytical Approach ” combining “ Performance ” Based “ Economic / Technical ” Issues is Needed A PPROACH: “ Analytical Approach ” combining “ Performance ” Based “ Economic / Technical ” Issues is Needed Comprehensive / Analytical “ Vision ” Problem

7. O BJECTIVES Network Replacement T HEORY: Developing “ Services Transactions / Network Flow / Performance ” Based “ Analytical ” Methodology for Network Technology Replacement P RACTICAL: Using the Methodology to Investigate a “ Practical Case Study ” F UTURE: Providing a New Stream for Useful “ Future Work ”

8. Replacement Model Economic Model Inter-relationships Network Flow Model M ETHODOLOGY S TRUCTURE Network Specifications Optimum Replacement Time Services Network Capacity Performanc e Cost Benefits Cost- Effectivene ss Old / New Cash Flow Access Weights Input Output Network Replacement Methodology Operation

9. N ETWORK F LOW M ODEL: I NPUT Network Replacement N ETWORK S TRUCTURE: Nodes / Topology / Capacity of Links N ETWORK S TRUCTURE: Nodes / Topology / Capacity of Links Methodology O PERATION P OLICY: Work Flow Regulations / Routing O PERATION P OLICY: Work Flow Regulations / Routing A CCESS W EIGHTS: Distributed Potential Proportions of Users at Nodes A CCESS W EIGHTS: Distributed Potential Proportions of Users at Nodes

10. Network ReplacementMethodology N ETWORK F LOW M ODEL: I NPUT U Node Users N N N N N N N N U U U U U Access Weights Communications Routing / Flow Operation Policy

11. N ETWORK F LOW M ODEL: O UTPUT Network Replacement T RAFFIC L OAD / F LOW W EIGHTS: (Through Every Link) From Access Weights & Operation Policy T RAFFIC L OAD / F LOW W EIGHTS: (Through Every Link) From Access Weights & Operation Policy Methodology A CCEPTABLE T RAFFIC F LOW T RAFFIC F LOW U NIT: From Busiest Link Considering S ATISFACTORY P ERFORMANCE T RAFFIC F LOW U NIT: From Busiest Link Considering S ATISFACTORY P ERFORMANCE A CCEPTABLE T RAFFIC L OAD : N ETWORK C APACITY L IMIT

12. E CONOMIC M ODEL: I NPUT Network Replacement N ETWORK C APACITY L IMIT Methodology S ERVICES: Types (Voice / Data / Video) Transactions (Traffic Volume) Proportions S ERVICES: Types (Voice / Data / Video) Transactions (Traffic Volume) Proportions U SE L EVEL: In Terms of Busy Periods B USY H OUR: One Hour of Full Capacity Use C OST B ENEFITS T IME S CALE V ALUE A DJUSTMENT R ATE

13. E CONOMIC M ODEL: I NPUT Network Replacement C OST E LEMENTS: General: Initial, Environment, Operation &Maintenance Per Transaction: Supply Cost C OST E LEMENTS: General: Initial, Environment, Operation &Maintenance Per Transaction: Supply Cost Methodology B ENEFIT E LEMENTS: General: Space Saving Per Transaction: Time, Movement & Supply Savings Customer / Service Provider B ENEFIT E LEMENTS: General: Space Saving Per Transaction: Time, Movement & Supply Savings Customer / Service Provider

14. E CONOMIC M ODEL: O UTPUT Network Replacement M AXIMUM C OST-EFFECTIVENESS / O PTIMUM S ERVICE L IFE Methodology S IMULATED C OST-EFFECTIVENESS “ A CCUMULATED C ASH F LOW ” AS T IME P ROGRESSES: Services / Use / C&B S IMULATED C OST-EFFECTIVENESS “ A CCUMULATED C ASH F LOW ” AS T IME P ROGRESSES: Services / Use / C&B S ERVICED T RANSACTIONS

15. R EPLACEMENT M ODEL: I NPUT Network ReplacementMethodology T ECHNICAL: N ETWORK C APACITY & T RANSACTIONS / U SE T ECHNICAL: N ETWORK C APACITY & T RANSACTIONS / U SE E CONOMIC: N ETWORK C OST & B ENEFITS / A DJUSTMENT R ATE E CONOMIC: N ETWORK C OST & B ENEFITS / A DJUSTMENT R ATE O LD / N EW N ETWORK T ECHNOLOGIES

16. R EPLACEMENT M ODEL: O UTPUT Network Replacement M AXIMUM C OST-EFFECTIVENESS / O PTIMUM R EPLACEMENT T IME Methodology S IMULATED R EPLACEMENT C OST- EFFECTIVENESS AS T IME P ROGRESSES: Current Operation Using Old Technology, with Possible Replacement Considered Every Year S IMULATED R EPLACEMENT C OST- EFFECTIVENESS AS T IME P ROGRESSES: Current Operation Using Old Technology, with Possible Replacement Considered Every Year

17. S TRUCTURE 11 Banks (Main Sites) (Each Has Its Own Network) 1 Interbanking Centre (Interbanking Transactions) Given Access Weights (Based on No. of ATMs) Given Topology (Star: 11 to the Centre, 12th) S TRUCTURE 11 Banks (Main Sites) (Each Has Its Own Network) 1 Interbanking Centre (Interbanking Transactions) Given Access Weights (Based on No. of ATMs) Given Topology (Star: 11 to the Centre, 12th) W ORK F LOW Intrabanking: Transactions from the ATMs of One Bank to the Bank Itself (No Interbanking) Interbanking: Transactions from the ATMs of any One Bank to Other Banks (Interbanking) The Network is Only Concerned with Interbanking W ORK F LOW Intrabanking: Transactions from the ATMs of One Bank to the Bank Itself (No Interbanking) Interbanking: Transactions from the ATMs of any One Bank to Other Banks (Interbanking) The Network is Only Concerned with Interbanking AN I NTERBANKING N ETWORK Network ReplacementCase Study

18. Network ReplacementCase Study N ETWORK I LLUSTRATION

19. Network ReplacementCase Study A CCESS W EIGHTS

20. S LOW D IGITAL T ECH. C = 64 kbps Services (Data) L IMIT 240 kbps S LOW D IGITAL T ECH. C = 64 kbps Services (Data) L IMIT 240 kbps F ASTER D IGITAL T ECH. C = 1.5 Mbps Services (Data / Voice) L IMIT 5.8 Mbps F ASTER D IGITAL T ECH. C = 1.5 Mbps Services (Data / Voice) L IMIT 5.8 Mbps H IGH S PEED T ECH. C = 155 Mbps Services (Data / Voice / Video) L IMIT 583 Mbps H IGH S PEED T ECH. C = 155 Mbps Services (Data / Voice / Video) L IMIT 583 Mbps N ETWORK T ECHNOLOGIES Network ReplacementCase Study

21. D ATA : 1 kbyte D ATA : 1 kbyte V OICE: 120 kbyte V OICE: 120 kbyte V IDEO: 2400 kbyte V IDEO: 2400 kbyte S ERVICES T RANSACTIONS Network ReplacementCase Study PER T RANS. B USY H OUR T RANSACTIONS L IMITS D ATA V OICE V IDEO 3 3 2 2 1 1 T ECH. 108 k zero 21 k zero 108 k

22. C OST Initial Enviro. Staff O&M Supply (per Trns) C OST Initial Enviro. Staff O&M Supply (per Trns) N ETWORK C OST Network ReplacementCase Study T ECH 1 1 (86.5 %) 1 (5.4 %) 1 (1.6 %) 1 (6.5 %) 1 T ECH 1 1 (86.5 %) 1 (5.4 %) 1 (1.6 %) 1 (6.5 %) 1 T ECH 2 1.8 1.3 1.17 1.5 1 T ECH 2 1.8 1.3 1.17 1.5 1 T ECH 3 3.75 1.8 1.7 2.5 1 T ECH 3 3.75 1.8 1.7 2.5 1

23. C OST Time Movement Supply C OST Time Movement Supply N ETWORK B ENEFITS Network ReplacementCase Study D ATA 1 D ATA 1 V OICE 2 1 V OICE 2 1 V IDEO 4.5 3 1 V IDEO 4.5 3 1 Benefits to Customers & to Organization Saving Based on Wages / Importance

24. Cost effectiveness versus time in years for different network use level Q(equivalent busy hours of use per year) at satisfactory performance, considering the first technology T IME / E FFECTIVENESS: T ECH. 1 Network ReplacementCase Study

25. Cost effectiveness versus time in years for different network use level Q(equivalent busy hours of use per year) at satisfactory performance; considering the second technology T IME / E FFECTIVENESS: T ECH. 2 Network ReplacementCase Study

26. Cost effectiveness versus time in years for different network use level Q(equivalent busy hours of use per year) at satisfactory performance considering the third technology. T IME / E FFECTIVENESS: T ECH. 3 Network ReplacementCase Study

27. Cost and benefit (break even state) versus the use level Q (equivalent hours of use per year) at satisfactory performance, and optimum life, considering the first technology B REAK E VEN: T ECH. 1 Network ReplacementCase Study

28. Cost and benefit (break even state) versus the use level Q (equivalent hours of use per year) at satisfactory performance, and optimum life, considering the second technology B REAK E VEN: T ECH. 2 Network ReplacementCase Study

29. Cost and benefit (break even state) versus the use level Q (equivalent hours of use per year) at satisfactory performance, and optimum life, considering the third technology B REAK E VEN: T ECH. 3 Network ReplacementCase Study

30. Cost effectiveness versus the use level Q(equivalent busy hours of use per year) at satisfactory performance and optimum life, for the three technologies U SE / E FFECTIVENESS: A LL T ECH. Network ReplacementCase Study

31. R EPLACEMENT: 1 st BY 2 nd Network ReplacementCase Study

32. R EPLACEMENT: 1 st BY 3 rd Network ReplacementCase Study

33. R EPLACEMENT: 2 nd BY 3 rd Network ReplacementCase Study

34. I NTEGRATION OF E VALUATIONS WITH N ETWORK P LANNING & D ESIGN F UTURE W ORK Network Replacement E XTENSIONS FOR I NVESTIGATIONS OF P RACTICAL N ETWORK U SE IN D IFFERENT F IELDS D EVELOPMENT OF F RIENDLY S OFTWARE P ACKAGES FOR E ASY E VALUATIONS

35. I NTERNATIONAL J OURNAL OF N ETWORK M ANAGEMENT Performance based evaluations of the tangible benefits of information networks, Vol.10, No.2, March / April 2000, pp.91-101. Analysis of the cost-effectiveness of information networks, Vol.10, No.3, May / June 2000, pp.145-156 A methodology for the evaluation of the replacement of information network technology, Vol.10, No.6, Nov. / Dec. 2000, pp.349-359 I NTERNATIONAL J OURNAL OF N ETWORK M ANAGEMENT Performance based evaluations of the tangible benefits of information networks, Vol.10, No.2, March / April 2000, pp.91-101. Analysis of the cost-effectiveness of information networks, Vol.10, No.3, May / June 2000, pp.145-156 A methodology for the evaluation of the replacement of information network technology, Vol.10, No.6, Nov. / Dec. 2000, pp.349-359 www.InsightView.com P UBLICATIONS Network Replacement