1. INGV-CMCC contribution to CLIMARES proposal Silvio Gualdi and Elisa Manzini CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen.

2. CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen. Overall objectives: 1.provide a set of short-term climate change projections performed with a global model that can be used both as boundary conditions for regional models and to perform climate change impact studies in the Arctic region 2.use climate simulations to assess climate variability and the possible climate change signal in the Arctic region Two major tasks: Task 1: Representation of the troposphere-stratosphere interaction and its effects on the simulation of the Arctic climate Task 2: Improved initialization of the sea-ice in climate simulations

3. CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen. Work-plan: Two streams of simulations will be performed: Stream 1 (year 1): Short-term projections (1965-2035) performed with the high-horizontal resolution CMCC model, starting from available oceanic analysis and sea-ice initial conditions; Stream 2 (year 2): Short-term projections (1965-2035) performed with the stratosphere resolving CMCC model, starting from improved oceanic and sea-ice initial conditions

4. The experimental design (CMIP5 protocol) CMCC: Three-members ensembles with CMCC model. Ocean initial conditions from existing analyses. The short-term projections performed with the CMCC global coupled model Observed GHGs & Aerosols Scenarios GHGs & Aerosols 2000 2035 1960 19651970 1995 … 2005 …… 19902030 …… CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen. 30 years

5. Ensemble of integrations of the period 1965-2035 with start dates every 5 years (1965, 1970, …, 2005) and 3 member for each start date;. Oceanic initial conditions: Ocean Analysis (CMCC-INGV) with observed anomalies on top of model climatology;. Atmospheric ini. cond.: AMIP run;. Sea-Ice ini. cond.: Ocean Analysis for the sea-ice cover distribution and model climatology for the sea-ice thickness;. GHGs and aerosols from observations for 1965-2005 and from scenarios (according to CMIP5) for 2005-2035; High-resolution, short-term (decadal) prediction experiments CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen.

6. OCEAN (dynamics and physics) NEMO/ORCA2 (Barnier et al. 2006) SEA-ICE: LIM (Timmermann et al. 2005) ATMOSPHERE (dynamics, physics, prescribed gases and aerosols) ECHAM5 T159 - L31 Roeckner et al. (2006) T63-L95 (stratosphere resolving) (Manzini et al. 2006) COUPLER Oasis 3 Valcke et al. (2004) COUPLER Heat Flux Water Flux Momentum Flux Global Atmosphere Global Ocean & Sea-Ice SST Sea-ice The high resolution CMCC-MODEL High-resolution, short-term (decadal) prediction experiments CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen.

7. Preliminary results from a 20th Century simulation Mean SST 1951-2000 JFM JAS OBS (HadISST) MODEL MODEL - OBS CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen.

8. global mean sea-surface temperature Preliminary results from a 20th Century simulation CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen.

9. SEA-ICE COVER JFM JAS OBSCMCC-MED OBSCMCC-MED Preliminary results from a 20th Century simulation CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen.

10. OBSCMCC-MED JFM JAS OBSCMCC-MED SEA-ICE COVER Preliminary results from a 20th Century simulation CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen.