1. Pathways to the Futures of Education Anticipating change and taking informed actions Hawai‘i P-20 Partnership for Education Ko‘olau Ballrooms and Conference Center, 11/13/15

2. Richard Kaipo Lum, PhD Vision Foresight Strategy LLC “Reframing the future.” www.visionforesightstrategy.com richard@visionforesightstrategy.com

3. FUTURES STUDIES Understanding and anticipating change in society

4. Understand and anticipate change in society… and then help others reframe their expectations and preferences for the future.

5. Two Complementary Aspects Analytic: understanding and anticipating change Synthetic: reframing expectations and preferences

6. Foresight: Insight into how and why the future could be different from the present.

7. Elements of Our Work Historical analysis Images of the future Theories of change and stabilityTrends & emerging issues Forecasting Preferred futures Innovation & creativity

8. Theories of Change How and why to societies, industries, communities, and organizations change? “Long wave” theories of economic change Diffusion of technology throughout society Pathways of institutional change

9. Scanning and Emerging Issues Analysis Searching for signals of potentially important developments. Anticipating future public policy issues Exploring future technologies Tracking the rise of new concepts and philosophies The “new normal” Rapid maturation, “mainstreaming” Academic/scientific exploration Fringe thinking

10. Who Uses Foresight?

11. SOCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE It’s happened before, and it will happen again

12. The “Roadmap” in the 1950s

13. The “Roadmap” Today…?

14. TRENDS & EMERGING ISSUES Scanning for Signals of Emerging Change

15. TrendsEmerging Issues Trends vs. Emerging Issues

16. Generational change Digitization (everything) Ubiquitous internet access Shrinking middle class Rising income inequality Rising global economic competition Decline of US student performance Rising cost of college ed Decreasing funding for public education Rising dissatisfaction with ed outcomes Shift to career readiness A Few Trends…

17. Adaptive learning Alternative credentialing Augmented/virtual reality Artificial intelligence Big data Co-production/co- learning Internet of things Learning analytics Nanodegrees Online education Open educational resources Tighter coupling of employer interests and educational design …And Some Emerging Issues

18. IMAGES OF THE FUTURE Visions shape actions and perceptions

19. Unwinding Higher Ed The Reformed Institution Bifurcation of Learning Competing Images of the Future

20. RESPONSES TO CHANGE Anticipating the reactions of stakeholders

21. Three Basic Responses to Change

22. TYPES OF STRATEGIES Selecting the best approach to achieving goals

23. A concept or theory for how, in a given context and employing a given set of resources and competencies, you expect to achieve your goals Strategy

24. ConflictCompetitionCoincidence Three Categories of Strategies

25. Control the dynamic Divide and conquer Hit them where it hurts Deterrence Take small bites Negotiate while advancing Strategies of Conflict

26. Segmentation (of the market) Differentiation (within the market) Cost leadership (within the market) Strategies of Competition

27. Stepping stone Building block EcosystemNetworkSeeding Strategies of Coincidence

28. Now let’s play with some of these ideas…

29. 4 Steps to the Future: A Quick and Clean Guide to Foresight By Richard Lum Intended to guide business readers through a complete and easy-to-use process for foresight. The book will: Provide a complete A-to-Z foresight process in simple and straight forward language Outline the exercises for running your own workshops Provide the worksheets needed to lead workshop participants to producing results Give readers the confidence that their organization is asking the right questions about the future December 2015

30. Mahalo.