1. Lecture 15 – Psyco 350, B1 Fall, 2011 N. R. Brown

2. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 2 Outline 1. Discrepant Partner Reports and the MSP –The Discrepancy –MSP 2.Evidence: strategy differences & Estimation bias. 3.Two Studies –UA undergrads -- Questionnaire Study –USA random sample -- Web-based Survey Telephone Web

3. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 3 Time for another Memory Demo

4. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 4 Accurate (?) Frequency Judgments

5. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 5 Memory for “How Many” Modal explicit memory test: Memory for “what” Other explicit memory test focus on event properties: when – event age/date/recency, list position where – physical location physical properties – appearance/sound/smell how often/how many – frequency

6. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 6 Memory for “How Many” Theoretical Issues: Understand the impact of repetition on memory. Why is frequency performance often very good? How is frequency information represented, updated, & used? How and when is frequency information used to inform probability judgments and prediction?

7. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 7 Memory for “How Many” Practical Issue: Self-reported “behavioral frequency” questions common in surveys & scales. –business, government, Social Sciences, medicine (epidemiology) When are estimates accurate/inaccurate? When/why are they inaccurate/biased? Is there anyway to improve accuracy?

8. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 8 A Commonly Asked Frequency Question How many sexual partners have you had in your lifetime?

9. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 9 Importance Epidemiology Sociology Psychology Methodology ♂ SPs = ♀ SPs SP = sex partner

10. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 10 ♂ SP Mean = ♀ SP Means FMFM FMFM FMFM FMFM FMFM

11. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 11 ♂ SP Mean = ♀ SP Means FM (♀ SP = 2) = ( ♂ SPs = 2)

12. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 12 ♂ SP Mean = ♀ SP Means FMFMFMFMFMFMFMFMFMFM

13. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 13 ♂ SP Mean = ♀ SP Means FM (♀ SP = 2) = ( ♂ SPs = 2)

14. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 14 The Discrepancy ♂s report far more opposite-sex SPs than ♀s Magnitude: 2 X – 4X Generality: US, UK, France, Canada, Norway, New Zealand

15. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 15 SP Discrepancy as Case Study: Explanations SamplingResponse SocialCognitive

16. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 16 Sampling Account (Brewer, et al 2000) Prostitutes under-sampled Support: –adjustment = estimate[# CSW]* estimate [# partners/CSW] –adjustment reduces discrepancy Problems –implication: For ♂ s, ≈75% SP are CSWs –Wiederman (1997) – removing “Johns” reduces discrepancy slightly, but does not eliminate it.

17. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 17 Social Account: Self-Presentation Bad-faith Explanations Respondents are "telling themselves and others enormous lies“ -- Lewontin "Intentional misreports are the main source of the discrepancies.” -- Smith

18. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 18 Social Account: Self-Presentation Bad-faith Explanations Assumed to Reflect a socially prescribed Directional Biases The-Macho-and-the-Maiden Hypothesis: ♂ exaggerate ♀ minimize

19. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 19 The Social Account: Support Intuition Robust attitude differences (Oliver & Hyde, 1993)

20. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 20 The Stakes Bad-Faith Partner Estimates Undermine credibility of self-report placing "all scientific sociology...in deep trouble” -- Lewontin

21. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 21 A Problem for the Social Account Problem: Non-discrepant response patterns are the norm -- duration, frequency, activities, # past-year SPs Example: Laumann et al. (1994)

22. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 22 A Cognitive Account The Multiple Strategies Perspective Links the discrepancy to between-sex differences in strategy use. Identifies common strategies w/ explicable bias Enumeration  underestimation “Rough Approximation”  overestimation

23. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 23 Multiple Strategy Perspective multiple strategies multiple representations encoding  content content  strategy strategy  performance References: Blair & Burton, 1987; Brown, 1995, 1997, 2002, in press; Burton & Blair, 1991; Conrad et al, 1998, 2003; Menon, 1993.

24. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 24 encoding factors contents effort bias accuracy strategy

25. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 25 Multiple Strategy Perspective Encoding factors determine task-relevant contents of memory. Contents of memory restrict strategy selection. Strategy selection and response bias often related.

26. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 26 An Empirically Derived Taxonomy of Frequency Estimation Strategies

27. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 27 Relating Encoding, content, strategy & Performance encodingcontentStrategyperformance ‘memorable’ events ‘on-target’ instances on-target enumeration  RT  freq  underestimation regularityrate rate retrieval  fast, flat RT  heaping intenttally tally retrieval  fast, flat RT  accurate(?) frequent presentation vague quantifier impression retrieval  fast, flat RT  overestimation indistinct instances fluency memory assessment  fast, flat RT  overestimation encoding/test mismatch ‘off-target’ instances off-target enumeration  SLOW, flat RT  regressive estimates

28. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 28 Evidence for MPS: Brown (1995) Two Experiments: common materials common estimation task different process-based based measures –Experiment 1 – concurrent verbal protocols –Experiment 2 – RT

29. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 29 Materials & Task Study Phase: 260 word pairs visual presentation: 6 s / pair Word Pairs: category label – category instance CITY – Boston Presentation Frequency of category labels: 2, 4, 8, 12, 16 Test Phase: 36 category labels “How many times did the word CITY appear on the study list”?

30. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 30 Two Types of Study Lists: Different Context & Same Context Different Context Lists Target Context cityParis sportfootball colorred.. colorgreen cityCleveland metaliron.. woman Mary cityBoston.. Same Context Lists Target Context cityBoston sportfootball colorred.. cityBoston metaliron.. woman Mary cityBoston..

31. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 31 Results: Process Measures Different Context Same Context Enumeration57%--- Impressions20%24% Unjustified25%69% Different Context: enumeration very common Same Context: unjustified very common – –fluency/availability-based estimates

32. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 32 Results: Protocol Results Interpretation: People enumerate when possible because it provides concrete credible basis for an estimate Readily-retrieval instances are a precondition for enumeration. Alternative Interpretation: People generally do not enumerate In protocol study: enumeration common because task demands imply that participants SAY something relevant to justify their response. –possible in different context condition –not possible in same-context condition

33. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 33 Results: Process Measures Different Context: RTs  frequency evidence for silent enumeration Same Context: RT slope much shallower. no enumeration

34. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 34 Results: Accuracy Measures Protocol Study Context DifferentSame r (est w/ freq)**.95.87 absolute error*** 2.75.3 signed error***-1.43.0 Measures: Mean Signed Error =  (estimate i – actual i )/N Mean Absolute Error =  |signed error i |/N Findings: Performance good regardless of context type Absolute error: Different < Same Signed Error (bias): Different < 0 < Same RT Study Context DifferentSame r (est w/ freq) ns.92.91 absolute error* 3.14.4 signed error***-2.32.3 RT(seconds)*** 6.63.1

35. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 35 Different Context  underestimation Same Context  overestimation RT Study Protocol Study

36. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 36 Experimental Summary Multiple strategies Strategy selection restricted by memory contents Bias & Strategy related: enumeration  underestimation rough aprox  overestimation

37. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 37 Lifetime Partner Discrepancy from the MSP Multiple strategies: Enumeration Rough Approximation Others(?) Strategy & magnitude related. enumeration < rough aprox Strategy selection related to sex Enumeration: ♀ > ♂ Rough Aprox: ♂ > ♀

38. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 38 MSP Predictions – Past Year Estimates Comparable past-year reports Multiple strategies used Strategy & magnitude related Strategy & sex of respondent unrelated

39. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 39 A Questionnaire Study: Brown & Sinclair (1999) Method: Demographics SP reports: –lifetime estimate & written strategy report –past-year estimate & written strategy report Attitude measures

40. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 40 A Questionnaire Study: Brown & Sinclair (1999) Participants: University Students: AB, PA, NJ 1036 ♀ 687 ♂ Age: M = 20.7 MD = 19

41. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 41 Distribution of SP Estimates -- AlbertaQ

42. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 42 Sexual Active Subset -- AlbertaQ Most active 10%; SP  8 Heterosexual 90 Females Age: md = 22 SPs: m = 13.61 85 Males Age: md = 23 SPs: m = 19.91

43. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 43 SP Est– Sexaul Active Subset -- AlbertaQ

44. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 44 Protocol Content – AlbertaQ

45. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 45 Sample Protocols -- AlbertaQ Enumeration (Retrieve & Count) "By retracing chronologically the partners I've had. Beginning with the first, ending with the present." -- M, 20 "I recalled and counted." -- F, 18 "Counted all the names I remembered." -- F, 11 "I can recall who they were and can count them." -- F, 15

46. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 46 Sample Protocols -- AlbertaQ Rough Approximation “Rough guess, give or take 1 or 2 partners." -- M, 16 "Rough estimate plus-or-minus error 5" -- M, 20 "I used to keep count. # has slowed down is likely about there" -- M, "30 (or so)“ "It is a guess based on the amount of partners I have had at the minimum.“ -- M, 50

47. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 47 Sample Protocols -- AlbertaQ Retrieved Tally "Keep track of them as they occurred." -- M, 21 "I know the number without thinking as it has been previously discussed among friends“-- M, 10 "I didn't estimate. I've kept count."-- F, 11 "I kept track in my diary and I know that my boyfriend is #27." -- F, 27

48. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 48 Sample Protocols -- AlbertaQ Rate "Avg of 5/year from 16-21, then remained monogamous." -- M, 25 "The average length of relationship since the time I became sexually active." -- M, 20 Ambiguous/Unclear "Memory." -- M, 22“ “I remember them."-- M, 10

49. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 49 Strategy Usage – Sexual Active – AlbertaQ EN = ENumeration TA = TAlly AP= rough APproximation AM = AMbiguous

50. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 50 MD Lifetime SPs X Strategy Sexual Active AlbertaQ EN = ENumeration TA = TAlly AM = AMbiguous AP= rough APproximation

51. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 51 Past-Year Estimates Male (m=3.45)  Female (m=2.58) Multiple strategies used. Strategy use & SP related No relation between sex & strategy

52. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 52 Summary Lifetime Estimates ♂ SPs > ♀ SPs Multiple strategies used. Strategy & magnitude related enumeration < rough aprox Sex & strategy related. enumeration:♀ > ♂ rough aprox: ♂ > ♀ Conclusion: MSP accounts for discrepancy

53. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 53 Summary: Past-Year Estimates ♂ SPs  ♀ SPs Multiple strategies used. Strategy & magnitude related Sex & strategy unrelated. Implications: bad faith responses unlikely ♂ & ♀ from same sample

54. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 54 USA Population Surveys-- Tess

55. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 55 USA Population Surveys – TessW & TessT TESS -- Time-sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences NSF funded program – Survey-based Experiments

56. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 56 USA Web-based Surveys – TessW & TessT Motivations: 1.Replication 2.Modality Effects 3.Assess impact of self-screening questions 4.Assess strategy manipulations

57. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 57 USA Web-based Surveys – TessW & TessT US data collection: 2004 TessT: Sample: stratified sample; random digit dialed telephone survey TessW -- Knowledge Network Panel: RDD  recruit panel members Members receive free hardware & internet service Sample drawn at random from panel. Data collect via web-based questionnaire.

58. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 58 Method -- Tess 1.Estimates # of SP – Three Versions 2.Indicated estimation strategy – Strategy Menu 3.Sexual orientation 4.Two attitude questions 5.Rate embarrassment 6.Rate truthfulness of response 7.Rate bias of responses

59. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 59 Method -- TessW 1.Estimates # of SP – Three Versions Control: “Please report your number of lifetime sexual partners” Approx: “Off the top of your head, please provide a rough estimate of your number of lifetime sexual partners.” Enum: “Please think back over your lifetime starting with your first sexual partner and count all of your sexual partners up to and including your most recent partner.”

60. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 60 Method -- Tess 2. Indicated estimation strategy – Strategy Menu I just now thought back over my lifetime and tried to remember and count each sexual partner. I made a rough guess, plus or minus a few sexual partners. It was a very small number, so I just knew. I keep a running tally of my number of sexual partners and I remembered this number (for example, I use a diary or I have been keeping track in my head over time). I thought about the number of different sexual partners who I’ve been with in an average year and multiplied by the number of years that I’ve been sexually active (for example, about 5 a year for 5 years equals 25) I used some other method to come up with my response. Please specify :

61. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 61 Method -- Tess 3. First Attitude Question I believe a relationship should form before someone has sex. 1=Agree 2=Disagree 3=Neither strongly somewhat

62. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 62 Method -- Tess 4. Second Attitude Question I would only have sex in the context of a serious relationship. 1=Agree 2=Disagree 3=Neither strongly somewhat

63. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 63 Method -- Tess 5. Rated embarrassment I felt embarrassed answering the questions about my number of lifetime sexual partners 1=Agree 2=Disagree 3=Neither strongly somewhat

64. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 64 Method -- Tess 6. Rated truthfulness of response I was truthful in my report of my number of lifetime sexual partners 1=Agree 2=Disagree 3=Neither strongly somewhat

65. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 65 Method -- TessW 7. Rated bias of the estimate. In terms of report of my number of lifetime sexual partners, I think that: I greatly under-reported I slightly under-reported I was accurate in my report I slightly over-reported I greatly over-reported my number of lifetime sexual partners

66. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 66 Research Questions

67. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 67 Research Questions -- Tess Will the strategy difference replicate? Mode Effects: –Will web-based administration decrease the discrepancy? –Will web-based administration affect strategy selection? Will self-ratings yield self-incrimination (SI)? Will the partner discrepancy & strategy differences disappear when SIs removed?

68. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 68 Research Questions -- Tess Mode Effect: Anonymity promotes disclosure. –Discrepancy: Web < Telephone Web conventions (“flaming trolls”) condone exaggeration. –Discrepancy: Web > Telephone

69. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 69 Research Questions -- Tess Will instructions affect strategy choice? If so: –Will the instructional effect be a large one? –Will instructions effect (decreases) the discrepancy?

70. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 70 Results 1.The Sample 2.Strategy Differences 3.The Discrepancy 4.Attitudes

71. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 71 The Samples

72. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 72 Sample – TessT(elephone) Sample: n = 1641 Relevant Subset: heterosexual, sexually experienced provided: SP estimate & strategy report Retained: 87.1% Age MMDN ♂ 49.849.0727 ♀ 51.350.5702

73. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 73 Sample – TessW(eb) Sample: n = 1893 Relevant Subset: heterosexual, sexually experienced provided: SP estimate & strategy report Retained: 89.5% Age MMDN ♂ 47.146845 ♀ 48.348847

74. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 74 Classification of Respondents Sexually-experienced Heterosexuals (SeH): Tel – W 86.6% Tel – M 87.5% Web – W 90.3% Web – M 88.7%

75. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 75 Self-Incriminators Defining Self-Incriminators (SIs) –Truthfulness Response: NR, 1, 2, or 3 SIs uncommon -- % Se H –Telephone – Women 3.7% –Telephone – Men 3.7% –Web – Women 5.3% –Web – Men 6.5%

76. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 76 Tr(uth) SeH Samples Telephone Age MMDN ♂ 49.549700 ♀ 51.350676 Web Age MMDN ♂ 46.846791 ♀ 48.3248802

77. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 77 Strategy Differences

78. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 78 Strategy Selection: Sex Differences *** *

79. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 79 Strategy Selection: Mode Differences *** +

80. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 80 Relation between Strategy & SPs: Sex Differences ***

81. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 81 Relation between Strategy & SPs: Mode Differences *** *

82. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 82 Replicating the Partner Discrepancy

83. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 83 Distribution of SPs

84. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 84 Distribution of SPs

85. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 85 Mean SP Effects: Mode*** Sex*** Mode X Sex * SIs unimportant

86. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 86 Median SPs Women: Web > Tel Men: Web = Tel SIs unimportant

87. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 87 Outliers (Se Hs)

88. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 88 Mode Effects: Sex & Mode Differences

89. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 89 Mode Effect: SP ≥ 10 Effects: Sex*** Mode *** Mode X Sex*** ================= Web- ♀ almost twice as likely to indicate at least 10 SPs as Tel- ♀ For ♂s, no effect of Mode.

90. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 90 Attitudes

91. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 91 Are people more embarrassed on the phone? Mode ns Sex ns Mode X Sex ns

92. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 92 Does mode affect attitude response? Question #1: Mode *** Sex *** Mode X Sex + ============== Question #2: Mode*** Sex*** Mode X Sex +

93. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 93 TESS Summary: Strategies Multiple strategies used Sex & strategy selection: –Approximation : ♂ > ♀ –“Just Know”: ♀ > ♂ Mode Effects: –“Just Know”: Web > Tel –Other: Tel > Web

94. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 94 And Finally…

95. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 95 The Discrepancy Reduced/Eliminated in 20’s Cohort

96. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 96 TESS Summary: Strategies Estimate related to strategy –Aprox > Enum > JK SPs & Aprox: ♂ > ♀ SPs & Aprox for ♀: Web > Tel

97. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 97 TESS Summary: Mode Effects Self Incrimination: Web > Tel Attitudes: Web > Tel Embarrassment: Web = Tel Web promotes disclosure.

98. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 98 TESS Summary: SP Replicate Discrepancy Sex X Mode Interaction Consistent w/ Social Desirability Account Sex X Cohort Interaction Memory/Behavioral Differences

99. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 99 Conclusions Three-pronged Account necessary –Direct evidence for Strategy Differences Social Desirability –Sampling PSW – “conspicuous by their absence”

100. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 100 Questions Why do men favor rough approximation? Memory Motivation Distributional