1. Toward a moist dynamics that takes account of cloud systems (in prep. for JMSJ) Brian Mapes University of Miami AGU 2011 YOTC session

2. Motivation Disconnect between detailed observations and large-scale desires that justify them – Observations are 4+ dimensional (xyzt + scales) – rich mesoscale texture (cloud systems) – How can this truly inform modeling?

3. Example: mixing in convection Brooks Salzwedel Plume #1 2009 12" x 8” Mixed Media “The authors identify the entrainment rate coefficient of the convection scheme as the most important single parameter... [out of 31]...[for]... HadSM3 climate sensitivity” Rougier et al. 2009, J.Clim. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2533.1. “The authors identify the entrainment rate coefficient of the convection scheme as the most important single parameter... [out of 31]...[for]... HadSM3 climate sensitivity” Rougier et al. 2009, J.Clim. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2533.1.

4. Find the entrainment rate coefficient Oct 18-19 30 hour loop DYNAMO campaign, equatorial Indian Ocean (Maldives) S-POL radar reflectivity 300 km

5. Our disconnect: like premodern medicine Form vs. Function

6. Connecting form to function Definitions & measures of function 1.Offline diagnostic: sensitivity matrix 2.Test-harness performance: column with parameterized large-scale dynamics 3.Inline tests: global explicit cloud models Ways to control for form –Domain size and shape; vertical wind shear –Conditional sampling (obs??)

7. Connecting form to function: one model approach Definitions & measures of function 1.sensitivity matrix Ways to control form –Domain size and shape Work of Zhiming Kuang (2010, 2012)

8. Sensitivity matrix M: a definition & measure of function –Kuang (2010 JAS) devised a way to build it –using a CRM in eq’m, then matrix inversion –works because convection is linear enough »as shown also in Tulich and Mapes 2010 JAS

9. M from 128x128km 2km-mesh CRM in Rad. Conv. Eqm. 0 0 1 2 5 8 12 z (km) 0 1 2 5 8 12 z (km)

10. Effect of T’ on subsequent 4h heating p coordinates view each built from >100,000 days of CRM time T’650 >0 inhibits heating above inhibits heating above (Kuang 2012)

11. Sensitivity of column integrated heating to T’ at various pressure levels T’700 >0 inhibits heating above inhibits heating above Sensitivity of 4h rain to T’

12. Sensitivity of 4h small domain rain to T’ and q’ WARM AND MOIST PBL IS VERY FAVORABLE Moisture in free troposphere is favorable Warm air is a buoyancy barrier. This “effective inhibition“ layer extends up to 400mb!

14. Organized convection sensitivities to large-scale (domain-mean) T anomalies: inhibits heating above inhibits heating above

15. Organized 4h heating sensitivities to large-scale (domain-mean) T anomalies:

16. Sensitivity of 4h big domain rain to T’ and q’ Much more sensitive to domain-mean moisture anomalies at various levels above PBL Positive influence of T’ now up to 700mb (not just PBL “parcel” level) “inhibition” layer now 600-300 mb Kuang pers. comm. Saturday

17. Organization: A 2D-3D continuum? 3D – small- No Shear 3D – With Shear Strict 2D Mapes (2004) x (km) doubly periodic

18. Connecting form to function: Need definitions / measures of function 1. 2. 3.Full ‘inline’ tests: global models with explicit convection

19. Super-parameterization vs. Under-resolved convection

20. ‘Super’ vs ‘Under’ explicit convection global models: Teraflop for teraflop, which one gives better performance? (by what metrics?) –‘Under’ keeps the spectrum-tail mesoscale, but compromises on convection resolution –‘Super’ emphasizes convective scales, and accepts (hard-wires) a scale gap

21. Key points/ conclusions Mesoscale/multiscale structure confounds obs- model connections Need an account of how form relates to function We have an accounting system (budgets, primes and bars), but a scientific account is more than that Defining “function” is half the battle Controlling form is the other half

22. Results Offline diagnostic of function: matrix M 4 hour rain sensitivity, from 128km CRM, shows: – High sensitivity to PBL (“parcel”) – free trop q ~uniformly important at all levels – inhibition applies up to 600mb 4 hour sens. from 2048 x 128 w/ mesoscale org differs: – More sensitive to q’ in free troposphere – T’ at 700mb is a positive influence now – ‘inhibition’ layer extends up to 400-300 mb A continuum from isotropic 3D to strict 2D? Inline approaches: interesting comparison needs doing – Super-parameterization vs. under-resolved convection Working to bring in obs (having model predictions helps)