1. Prof. Peter McKiernan: School of Management, University of St Andrews ‘Thinking Long’ in ‘Managing Change’ Fife Partnership: “The Gathering” The Vine, Dunfermline 2010

4. Predictable Surprises? “Nobody saw this coming...S&P and Moody’s didn’t see it coming Bear Sterns certainly didn't see it coming, Merrill Lynch didn’t see it coming. Nobody saw this coming.” Angelo Mozilo, former CEO and Chairman of Countrywide Financial “Almost all of us, including me, who were involved in the financial system that is to say, financial firms, regulators, rating agencies, analysts, and commentators missed the powerful combination of factors that led to this crisis and the serious possibility of a massive crisis” Robert Rubin, former treasury secretary, former Chair of the executive committee of Citigroup’s board of directors

5. Postcard from the future

6. Who uses Scenarios? Edinburgh City to explore the future of the city Royal Dutch Shell to anticipate the oil shocks Grampian Region to assess life after oil U/Distillers to analyse the spread of Islam in Turkey Unilever to form a new channel strategy in Russia Scotland to assess the pathways for a new nation Jersey to evaluate an e-commerce strategy Stirling to integrate several strategic planning exercises Fife to inform the Community Plan Dyslexia Scotland to inform the 5 year plan EU Commission for Future of Automobile Sector

7. Fife Scenario Process- Overall Aim Provide scenario planning and related strategic management methods that best equip Fife Partnership to manage and adapt to change in the next ten year community planning cycle from 2010.

8. Key IssueSub-Issues DemographicsAgeing population; Demographic change; Migration EconomyCurrent Economic Crisis; Funding; Unemployment CO2 CO2 targets; Associated Climate Change; Impact on Industry Sustainable Communities Difference between aspirations and reality; current practices are not addressing needs Inequality Pockets of poverty and deprivation; issues around crime Fife’s Key Drivers

9. Final Uncertainty Matrix Sustainable Communities Demographics Economy Public Sector Reform Fife Partnership Infrastructure Inequality CO2 Technology Importance Uncertainty

10. Group 1: Quick Recovery Missing Targets Group 2: Quick Recovery Reaching Targets Group 4: Slow Recovery Reaching Targets Group 3: Slow Recovery Missing Targets Economy Carbon Emissions 2 x 2 Scenario Matrix

11. 12 Thank you.