1. 1 www.marinerwealthadvisors.com © Copyright 2015 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlwww.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ Economic Outlook and Capital Market Opportunities William B. Greiner, CFA, Chief Investment Strategist, Mariner Holdings

2. ©Copyright 2015 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlwww.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ 2 www.marinerwealthadvisors.com Percentage Point Contributions to GDP Growth Quarterly Data 3/31/1995 – 9/30/2015 Growing nicely Ugly Not a good picture

3. ©Copyright 2015 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlwww.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ 3 www.marinerwealthadvisors.com Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Weekly Data 3/22/1967 – 10/30/2015 (Log Scale) Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims (4-Week Smoothing) Lowest level of initial unemployment claims since the 1970s

4. ©Copyright 2015 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlwww.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ 4 www.marinerwealthadvisors.com Household Formations Quarterly Data 3/31/1982 – 9/30/2015 (Log Scale) More that 1 quarter of improvement This is being driven by

5. ©Copyright 2015 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlwww.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ 5 www.marinerwealthadvisors.com ISM Indexes Monthly Data 1/31/1948 – 10/31/2015 Manufacturing treading water

6. ©Copyright 2015 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlwww.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ 6 www.marinerwealthadvisors.com Real GDP vs ISM Indexes Monthly Data 1/31/1948 – 10/31/2015 Not so for services – Very strong

7. ©Copyright 2015 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlwww.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ 7 www.marinerwealthadvisors.com Barclays Long-Term Treasury Bond Price Index Monthly Data 12/31/1971 – 10/31/2015 Yield Curve (10-Year Treasury Note Yield minus Six-Month T-Bill Yield) Recessions occur when the yield curve is inverted, not steep Recession

8. ©Copyright 2015 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlwww.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ 8 www.marinerwealthadvisors.com Core PCE Price Index (Year-to-Year Change) Monthly Data 1/31/1960 – 9/30/2015 May rise next year – still well contained

9. 9 www.marinerwealthadvisors.com Daily CRB-SPOT-SPOT 11/24/2010 – 2/24/2015

10. 10 www.marinerwealthadvisors.com Historical Secular Bull/Bear Markets - Commodities DatePercentage LossLength - YearsFirst Leg - LossLength - Years 1920 - 1933-63.50%12.8 Years-44.00%4.1 Years 1951 - 1972-38.40%21 Years-41.50%3.6 Years 1980 - 1999-34.50%19.1 Years-40.30%5.7 Years 2011 - ????-40.80%4.8 Years-40.80%4.8 Years Previous Average-33.95%17.6 Years-41.93%4.5 Years Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc. ©Copyright 2015 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlwww.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

11. ©Copyright 2015 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlwww.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ 11 www.marinerwealthadvisors.com West Texas Spot Crude Oil Daily Data 12/31/2001 – 11/20/2015 (Log Scale) NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll for Crude Futures (Five-Day Smoothing) Whole lot of Bears!

12. 12 www.marinerwealthadvisors.com Investment Thoughts “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” - Sir John Templeton It makes sense to consider that: “Bear markets are born on euphoria, grown on optimism, mature on skepticism and die on pessimism. People fled in terror…Basal ganglia calcified in the stricken; the streets rang at night with the screams of the lost.” “There is a lot of bad news that keeps coming out about energy and yet the prices don’t go down. Historically, I have noticed that if something is going up and good news comes out and it doesn’t keep going up it usually means the top is being set. Likewise if something is going down, and bad news comes out and it doesn’t continue to go down, it usually means we are making a bottom, so I suspect that energy is making a bottom.” - Jim Rogers, Barron’s, 11/10/15 Journalist are writing the MLP obituary – “Why the MLP Business Model May Be a Goner” Barron’s – Sept. 28, 2015. The IEA (International Energy Agency) thinks oil prices will remain “mired” in a slow-growth economic environment. The IEA expects oil to trade at $80 per barrel in the year 2020. That represents an average annual increase of 11.7 percent per year! Placing Investments in Assets Which are “Starving” for Capital

13. 13 www.marinerwealthadvisors.com Investment Thoughts From peak-to-trough (November 2014 to September 2015) the Alerian MLP Index Declined by 46.1 percent in value. The S&P 500 fell in value by 56.4 percent from October 2007 to March 2009. From March 2009 to March 2011 the S&P 500 was up 93.6 percent in value. We sense a good buying opportunity as fear is in the air. Placing Investments in Assets Which are “Starving” for Capital

14. 14 www.marinerwealthadvisors.com MLP Investments – Fear Is In The Air Current dividend yields are extremely wide in relation to other income alternatives – with the exception that major cuts may be forthcoming. We doubt this to be the case. For example –Current yield spreads: Yield spreads are the highest to U.S. Treasures since the stock market crash of 2008-2009. Yield spreads are highest to REITs in over 20 years. Fear is in the air. AssetCurrent Spread5-Year Median U.S. 10-Year Treasuries5.56%3.80% REIT Index3.28%1.81% S&P 500 Index5.63%3.96% AA Corp. Bonds3.58%1.87% Average Yield Spread4.51%2.86%

15. 15 www.marinerwealthadvisors.com Disclosure This commentary is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to Mariner Wealth Advisors' investment advisory services and general economic market conditions. The information contained herein should not be construed as personalized investment, legal, tax or insurance advice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or engage in a particular investment strategy. There is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed in this guide will come to pass. The views and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Mariner Wealth Advisors (“MWA”) is an SEC registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of Kansas. Registration of an investment advisor does not imply any level of training or skill. MWA and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon registered investment advisers by those states in which MWA maintains clients. MWA may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements. Any subsequent, direct communication by MWA with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. Registration of an investment advisor does not imply any level of skill or training. For additional information about MWA, including fees and services, please contact MWA or refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov). Please read the disclosure statement carefully before you invest or send money.

16. 16 www.marinerwealthadvisors.com © Copyright 2015 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlwww.ndr.com/vendorinfo/