1. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.1 MODULE 1: REDEFINING THE PRESENT

2. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.2 TERMINAL OBJECTIVE The students will be able to employ creative approaches to identify problems having an impact on organizational effectiveness.

3. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.3 ENABLING OBJECTIVES The students will: Use an environmental scanning process to identify existing or potential organizational problems.Use an environmental scanning process to identify existing or potential organizational problems. Analyze the effect of paradigms on creative problem identification.Analyze the effect of paradigms on creative problem identification. Identify specific fire service paradigm shifts which would improve future organizational effectiveness.Identify specific fire service paradigm shifts which would improve future organizational effectiveness.

4. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.4 World U.S. State Community Fire Officer Fire Dept.

5. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.5 What are the causes/sources of ambiguity in today's public sector organizations?

6. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.6 "Future sense involves the paradoxical attitude of not completely understanding today's chaos, not knowing what the future will be, and yet believing we can be a part of creating the kind of future we desire." (Gelatt, 1993) (Gelatt, 1993)

7. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.7 EXPANDING YOUR PERSPECTIVE CertaintyandControl FlexibilityandAdaptability VS.

8. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.8 EXPANDING YOUR PERSPECTIVE (cont'd) LimitedPerspective The "Big Picture"

9. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.9 EXPANDING YOUR PERSPECTIVE (cont'd) InternalFocusExternalFocus VS.

10. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.10 EXPANDING YOUR PERSPECTIVE (cont'd) Looking for the Right Answer VS. Askingthe Right Question ?!

11. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.11 EXPANDING YOUR PERSPECTIVE (cont'd) Eliminating or Avoiding ConflictAccepting Conflict as Healthy VS.

12. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.12 EXPANDING YOUR PERSPECTIVE (cont'd) Being Uncomfortable with Ambiguity Finding Meaning and Pattern Amid the Clutter VS.

13. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.13 ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING Monitoring and tracking what's happening Current and future Current and future Internal and external Internal and external

14. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.14 "Change itself has changed. It has been so rapid, so complex, so turbulent, and so unpredictable that it is now called 'white-water change'." (Gelatt, 1993)

15. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.15 BASIC SYSTEMS THEORY TRANSFORMATIO N E n v i r o n m e n t E n v i r o n m e n t PoliciesMission Structure Leadership ProceduresPreparation INPUTPeopleInformationMoneyMaterialsPolicyOUTPUTServicesProductsPersonChanges FEEDBACK Environment

16. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.16 PURPOSES OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING Understand/Manage the presentUnderstand/Manage the present Predict the futurePredict the future Develop strategiesDevelop strategies

17. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.17 "In our normal thought processes, most of us are problem-solvers. We gather and analyze facts and data to reach an answer or a solution... "As environmental scanners, however, we start from a known position and use facts and data to develop questions, not answers, and problems, not solutions..." (Stoffels, 1982) (Stoffels, 1982)

18. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.18 EXTERNAL ISSUES AND TRENDS Information and technologyInformation and technology Economic and financialEconomic and financial Governmental/PoliticalGovernmental/Political Human resourceHuman resource Service deliveryService delivery

19. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.19 INTERNAL ISSUES AND TRENDS Changing employee valuesChanging employee values Organizational culture shiftsOrganizational culture shifts Responsiveness/Effectiveness of the organizational structureResponsiveness/Effectiveness of the organizational structure Relevance/Clarity/Acceptance of the mission/philosophyRelevance/Clarity/Acceptance of the mission/philosophy

20. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.20 "SWOT" ANALYSIS StrengthsStrengths WeaknessesWeaknesses OpportunitiesOpportunities ThreatsThreats

21. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.21 FORMING AND SHIFTING PARADIGMS A paradigm is A point of viewA point of view A frame of referenceA frame of reference A set of rulesA set of rules

22. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.22 PARADIGM DISADVANTAGES "Blind spots""Blind spots" Paradigm paralysisParadigm paralysis

23. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.23 SHIFTING YOUR PARADIGM Flexpertise Continually adapt, innovate, and changeContinually adapt, innovate, and change Unfreezing and refreezing paradigmsUnfreezing and refreezing paradigms

24. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.24 "Making up one's mind, an essential skill of the past, may now be no more important than a new essential skill of the future-- learning how to change one's mind." (Gelatt, 1993)

25. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.25 SETTLERS VS PIONEERS Accept status quo Resist change Low risk-takers Rely on "the numbers" Want it to be "safe" Challenge status quo Seek out change High risk-takers Rely on intuition Make it "safe" for settlers Challenge status quo Seek out change High risk-takers Rely on intuition Make it "safe" for settlers

26. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.26 REFRAMING Changing the lensChanging the lens Altering our perspectiveAltering our perspective Using a different vantage pointUsing a different vantage point RefocusingRefocusing

27. Shaping the FutureOHT 1.27 SUMMARY Environmental scanningEnvironmental scanning ParadigmsParadigms Adapt, innovate, and changeAdapt, innovate, and change