1. TRANSMILENIO ENRIQUE LILLO EMME/2 UGM May 2002

2. Bogotá n 7 million people n Mean annual population growth of 4,5 % over the last 10 years n 25 % of Colombian GDP n US$ 3 300 GDP per Capita

3. Transport indicators n 1 million automobiles moving 19% of the population n 30 000 buses moving 72% of the population n Mean bus speed during peak hour: 7 km/hr n Approximately 650 bus lines n Approximately 22 000 registered buses n On average a transit rider spent 2 hours and 20 minutes in transport per day

4. Public Transport: The Vehicles Bus Corriente 26% 65 passengers Year: < 90 Bus Intermedio 12% 68 passengers Year: > 91 Bus Ejecutivo 9 % 72 passengers All Years Bta Ejecutiva 33% 30 passengers Years: 75 - 92 Bta. Ejecutiva 4 % 30 passengers Year: 93 > Colectivos 16 % 15 passengers All years Source: STT 1998

5. Public Transport: The Bus Network

6. Demand for Public Transport: Daily Pattern

7. Demand for Public Transport: Socio-economic Strata

8. Demand for Public Transport : Travel Distance

9. Demand for Public Transport: Number of Transfers

10. Demand for Public Transport: Passenger Load Corredor Pax/hr/direction PHM Avenida Caracas 36,000 Calle 8025,100 Autopista Norte 16,700 Norte Quito Sur25,400 Avenida Suba 24,800 Avenida de las Américas28,800 Figures correspond to the heaviest load per direction during the a.m. peak hour Source: From passenger counts, April 1999

11. Transmilenio: Concept INFRASTRUCTURE n Bus Only Lanes n Transfer Stations n Bus Stations BUS LINES n Trunk Routes n Feeder Lines n New Transit Agency n New Public Transport Providers n Fare Collection System n Remote Control System n New Vehicles

12. Transmilenio: Main Corridors

13. Transmilenio: Stations n Transfer Stations: l Main : Located at the end of the main corridors l Intermediate: Located along any of the main corridors

14. Transmilenio : Stations n Regular Stations: l Boarding and Alighting of Passengers l Transfers between trunk lines l Located along the main corridors

15. Transmilenio: Feeder Zones

16. Transmilenio: Feeder – Trunk Interaction Feeder Zobe Transfer Station CBD Feeder Line Bus Stop

17. Transmilenio: Feeder – Trunk Interaction Feeder 1Feeder 2 Trunk Route COMMON SPACE FARE INTEGRATION

18. Bus Operations: Formation of bus queues in stations  = saturation degree = Demand Rate / Service Rate Queue Length L = 0.7*  2 /(1-  )

19. Bus Operations: Operational Parameters n x = time in station / available time x = frequency *(time per bus)/ 3600 example f = 100 veh/h, t = 30 sec x = 30*100 / 3600 = 0.83 n fm= Maximum Frequency Maximum x = 0,4 0,4=fm * t /3600 fm=1440 / t n C= Operational Capacity C= passengers / hr C = fm * Bus Capacity = 1440 * Bus Capacity / t

20. Bus Operations: Dwelling Time n Tp = to * tp * np l to: bus manoeuvring + door operations time l tp: time per passenger l np:number of passengers = bus capacity * R l R: loading factor phase oxford street metro SP approachsec510 open doorssec22 board. and alight.sec4825 close doorssec25 resume routesec210 totalsec5952 fmVeh/h2433 bus capacitypas/veh701700 Op. capacityPas/h170856100

21. Bus Operations: Operational Capacity n C=1440/(to / bus capacity +tp*R) Single stop, one vehicle Operational Scheme Bus cap. totp Operational capacity passec pas/hveh/h van 151031.13776 minibus 351131.57545 bus 701231.86727 articulated - fare inside 160131.53.77724 Bi-articulated - fare inside 240141.54.01917 Articulated – at grade boarding 1601315.12032 Bi- articulated – at g. b. 2401415.57423 Articulated – at g. b. + fare outside160130.33 9.77961 Bi-articulated at g.b. + fare outside 240140.312.16951

22. Bus Operations: Capacity as a function of R (demand)

23. Bus Operations: Speed and Frequency

24. Bus Operations: Fleet size and Frequency

25. Bus Operations: Alternative 1 - Convoys

26. Bus Operations: Alternative 2 – Differentiated Stops n Segregated bus stops by destination n Local and Express Buses using two lanes per direction in the bus corridors Platform APlatform B

27. Bus Operations: Station Design in Avenida Caracas

28. Strategic Modelling: Objectives n Forecast the demand n Describe the riders n Provide flexibility for simulation n Create appropriate interface with operational design n Provide functional and economic indicators n Create and model that can be updated

29. Strategic Modelling : Overall Design Transmilenio Routes Transmilenio Demand Transmilenio Service Attributes Transmilenio Riders Revenue Calculation Revenue Sharing

30. The Demand: Surveys and Counts n Public Transport Passenger and Vehicle Counts (250 000 records) n Boarding and Alighting (20 000 records) n Origin Destination Surveys on board ( 66 000 records) n Public Transport Users Counts in bus stops ( 3 000 records) n Traffic Counts at major intersections n Stated Preferences (1 989 interviews)

31. Spatial Distribution of the Demand n Origins n Destinations

32. Analysis Zones 635 Zones: 606 Inside the study area and 29 outside

33. EMME/2 Model n 635 zones n 1904 nodes n 8509 links n 6 modes n 400 public transport lines

34. Value of Time Socio-Economic Stratum VOT Share of the total demand 1.0 - 1.515 $/min 2% 1.5 - 2.530 $/min32% 2.5 – 3.545 $/min65% 3.5 – 6.080 $/min 1% n Value of Time Estimated from SP survey

35. Results (1)

36. Results (2)

37. Results(3)

38. Results (4)

39. Results(5)

40. Sensibility Analysis: Fare and Competition n Financial Equilibrium: $ 750 n 10% increase in fare creates a 10% reduction in demand n With strong competition the equilibrium point is 15% higher and the demand drops 25% Weak Competition Strong Competition

41. Sensibility Analysis: Speed and Competition n 5 km/hr less creates a 20% demand reduction n With strong competition the demand drops 70 % Weak Competition Strong Competition

42. Most Common modelling errors (1) n OD Matrices l Obtained from household surveys l Zoning detail is not appropriate for modelling purposes l Lack of information l Automatic adjustments n Market segmentation l Market segmentation criteria l Not enough segments n Wrong Models l Fare system l Different Users l Erroneous simulation of pedestrian access l “ Slow Models”

43. Most Common modelling errors (2) n Perception of the new system l Commercial Speed l “New system” Effect l Some costs are not truly evaluated ( waiting time, walking time, etc.) n Competition l Fare l Level of Service n Changes in mobility patterns l Peak Hour behaviour l Changes in Land Use