1. Jonathan Smith and Cal Ghee Migration Statistics Improvement, ONSCD Centre for Demography Improving internal migration estimates of students

2. Migration Statistics Improvement Programme Major cross government programme Package of improvements to migration statistics introduced in 2007 Next set of changes to be introduced in May 2010 Revised population estimates mid-2002 to mid-2008 Consultation on improvements begins November 2009

3. Summary Context Proposed improvements using data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) Indicative results Uses of HESA data in Migration Statistics Improvement Programme

4. Context

5. Context: HE student numbers 2007/08 2.3 million HE students 0.65 million 1 st year undergraduates within England & Wales Represents 1% of the total England & Wales population

6. Current population estimates method

7. Estimated resident population at time T Natural Change – add births, subtract deaths International migration – add inflows, subtract outflows Internal migration – add inflows, subtract outflows Add special populations back in Estimated resident population at time T+1 Remove special populations – UK armed forces, foreign armed forces, prisoners, school boarders Age-on population by 1 year

8. Accuracy of student migration estimates

9. Why the focus on student migration? Some young people, particularly young men, do not change their GP registration soon after they move Students a sub-set of young people, who necessarily cluster in certain areas of the country Affects estimation of students moving to university and moving away after their studies

10. Comparison of stocks - 2001

11. Former students moving out of example area

18. Comparison of Census and mid-2007 estimates

19. Proposed improvements using data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA)

20. Identifying migration moves using Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data Independent record of moves to university Domicile address Term-time address (from 2007/08) Age and sex Wide range of other variables Course length Level of study Start date / leave date Nationality

21. Access to Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data Identifiable record level data Establishing legal gateway Process complete by end 2009 Anonymised data Received March 2009 Used as the basis for improved internal migration estimates (May 2010)

22. Proposed student migration adjustments Estimates of students going to university Estimates of former students leaving university Creating a back series for the above for estimates for 2002 – 2007 Creating a counter-adjustment to account for when moves are eventually made

23. Estimates of students going to university

24. Estimates of former students leaving university HESA data does not record where former students move to How many people: a)Finish studying b)Move to a different LA c)And don’t change registration with a GP d)Remove former students from the LAs they were previously resident in and allocate them to the LAs they move to

25. Estimates of former students leaving university Range of sources used for the adjustment HESA 2001 Census Patient register of moves Necessary to assume that patterns have remained consistent since 2001

26. Indicative results

27. 2007/08 indicative results for England and Wales TotalMalesFemales Proposed ‘start of study’ adjustment 66,30036,00030,300 Proposed ‘end of study’ adjustment 35,31724,37910,938

28. Indicative results: Ten largest increases

29. Indicative results: Ten largest decreases

30. Indicative results: Adjustment for former students to first destinations

31. Indicative results: Ceredigion mid 2007 population

32. Additional uses of HESA data in Migration Statistics Improvement Programme

33. Further research using HESA data Internal Migration Record linkage between patient registers and HESA data to identify and adjust for moves missed International Migration Foreign students who don’t live in households and so are not sampled in the Labour Force Survey Record linkage between international migrants identified on patient registers and HESA data Identification of foreign students likely to be short-term migrants

34. Likely short-term migrants on HESA data (2007/08) Local AuthorityOverseas Short-term Migrant Students Camden5,200 Manchester4,000 Cardiff3,900 Islington3,900 Newham3,800 Newcastle-upon-Tyne3,800 Coventry3,200 Birmingham2,900 Tower Hamlets2,800 Leeds2,800

35. Summary Accuracy of internal migration estimates of students Availability of HESA data on student’s term- time address Proposed adjustment for moves at beginning and end of study Implemented into revised population estimates (mid-2002 to mid-2008) Wider research planned using HESA data

36. Questions?