1. Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Air Quality Forecasting Paula Davidson Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Air Quality Forecasting Paula Davidson NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002

2. Outline Team CompositionTeam Composition Vision/BenefitsVision/Benefits Goals/TargetsGoals/Targets Key GapsKey Gaps Key DecisionsKey Decisions Outstanding R & D NeedsOutstanding R & D Needs SummarySummary

3. Air Quality Forecasting Tiger Team Composition Pai-Yei Whung (Team Lead) (OAR)Pai-Yei Whung (Team Lead) (OAR) Paula Davidson * (NWS/OST)Paula Davidson * (NWS/OST) Paul Stokols * (NWS/OCWWS)Paul Stokols * (NWS/OCWWS) Ralph Petersen * (NWS/NCEP)Ralph Petersen * (NWS/NCEP) James Meagher * (OAR)James Meagher * (OAR) Richard Artz * (OAR)Richard Artz * (OAR) William Stockwell * (OAR)William Stockwell * (OAR) James O’Sullivan (OAR)James O’Sullivan (OAR) Roger Pierce (OAR)Roger Pierce (OAR) James Lee (NWS/OCWWS)James Lee (NWS/OCWWS) Paul Hirschberg (NWS/OST)Paul Hirschberg (NWS/OST) Ken Schere (OAR/EPA)Ken Schere (OAR/EPA) (NESDIS)(NESDIS)

4. Air Quality Forecasting Vision / Benefits Vision Provide the Nation with accurate and timely air quality forecasts to protect lives, property Vision Provide the Nation with accurate and timely air quality forecasts to protect lives, property REDUCE loss of life, health and property from poor air quality >60,000 deaths/yr from high levels of particulate matter ~ $150 B/ yr health cost of air pollution ~ $2.4 B/ yr agricultural crop losses from high levels of ozone Current Current NWS forecasting does not include AQNWS forecasting does not include AQ High societal costs of poor AQHigh societal costs of poor AQ Capabilities ready for transitionCapabilities ready for transition

5. Air Quality Forecasting Goals/Targets to FY 12 Performance Measure: Existing GPRA Current Skill FY07 Goal FY12 Target Proposed Products IOC FY07 Target FY12 Target Ozone forecasts 1-day forecasts: New England 1-day categorical forecasts for the Nation Extend to day 2 and beyond Extend to other elements: PM RTT&E, day-1, NE Nationwide capability, 2-day

6. Air Quality Forecasting Key Gaps: Questions for IOC Planning Roles of Partners: public and private? Best use of observations? Optimum configuration for accuracy/efficiency of AQ models? Alternative concepts of operation? Estimates for schedule/resources?

7. FY 0204030506 1-day O 3 IOC NE 07 NOAA AQFP Timeline* *integrated with WRF schedule 1-day O 3 :NE Research/Prototype Real-Time Test/Evaluation (RTT&E) Operational Current and Projected Funding ($M) 3.0 V/V meth 3.0 1-day PM 1-day O 3 : Nation Pre-Operational Development 1-day PM extend to EUS OAR NWS 3.0

8. NOAA AQFP Critical Decision Points: IOC in FY 04 1.Verification and Validation 2.Select O 3 module for FY04 RTT&E a)Select modules for FY03 development/testing 3.Define Forecaster Role a)Complete plan for evaluating alternatives in FY03 4.Select IT architecture design 5.Define forecast products 6.Evaluate air chemistry obs needs 7.Approve O 3 module for operational use

9. NOAA AQFP: Proposed Concepts of Operations NWP PARTNERS and END USERS Fed./StatePrivate/Public NDFD NCDC Forecasts Archive Obs. Forecaster Role ??? A. A.“Hands Off” B. B.Central Desk C. C.WFOs D. D.B+C

10. NOAA AQF Next Steps For September 2002 Refine/Validate TimelineRefine/Validate Timeline Key Decision PointsKey Decision Points –Responsibility, Criteria approval –Obtain computing resources estimates –Refine deliverables, resource estimates Finalize EPA-NOAA MOUFinalize EPA-NOAA MOU Next 6 months Planning for FY 03 – FY 07+Planning for FY 03 – FY 07+ –Define customer requirements –Define deliverables, resource estimates Monthly MeetingsMonthly Meetings

11. Air Quality Forecasting Outstanding R&D Needs What is the best use of atmospheric chemistry observations for forecasting?What is the best use of atmospheric chemistry observations for forecasting? Which species must be included to accurately predict ozone, PM, and expanded product suite?Which species must be included to accurately predict ozone, PM, and expanded product suite? What is the best approach for V&V?What is the best approach for V&V? What is the best use of ensembles in AQ prediction?What is the best use of ensembles in AQ prediction? What are the most effective methods for statistical post-processing?What are the most effective methods for statistical post-processing?