1. Commitment to salmon: using Bayesian modeling to create a sustainable fisheries management tool based on commitment of fishermen Päivi Haapasaari, Timo P. Karjalainen, Kalle Reinikainen, University of Oulu, Finland; and Catherine Michielsens, Game and Fisheries Research Institute, Finland 1 Game and Fisheries Research Institute

2. International Baltic Sea Fisheries Commission Salmon Action Plan (SAP) program, aims at strengthening the salmon stocks of the Baltic Sea Finland’s goal: to restore the salmon stocks of Bothnian Bay rivers 2

3. SAP-rivers in Finland 3

4. Success in restoration presumes commitment of all the actors, including fishermen! 4

5. * What is the role of fishermen in the restoration process? ? 5

6. Research project Bireme-SAP Aimed at opening the black box of fishermen, making their activities and thoughts more transparent, and more predictable. 6

7. Our method: Linking social aspects with biological factors, through probabilistic Bayesian belief networks 7

8. Commitment ? ? ? ? Catch Probabilistic network ”Commitment” 8

9. Commitment Cultural and historical background of fishermen Belief in SAP Trust Sense of justice Catch 9

10. Commitment Cultural and historical background of fishermen Belief in SAP Trust Sense of justice Catch Commitment action Knowledge action Economic intrest Salmon abundance Management action 10

11. Management actions: Cheese slicer Setting quotas ITQ Releasing wild salmon Focusing on obligatory reared salmon 13

12. Knowledge actions: Letter home Symposiums Media Informing in fishing licenses Informing via locals 11

13. Commitment actions: Common meetings Visits Round table Contact persons 12

14. Commitment Cultural and historical background of fishermen Belief in SAP Trust Sense of justice Catch Commitment action Knowledge action Economic intrest Salmon abundance Management action 14

15. Some preliminary results: Belief in SAP… *Belief in the river conditions of the potential salmon rivers is low among all fishermen * Belief in wild salmon in catch is low among Kiiminkijoki river mouth fishermen * Other problems than fishing are considered most actual threats to the potential salmon rivers 15

16. How to increase beliefs? Knowledge action Belief in wild SAP-salmon Belief in river conditions * professionals > media, fishing licenses * semi-professionals > media, via locals * household fishers > via locals * recreational fishermen > symposiums, licenses 16

17. Some preliminary results: Trust… * much distrust between actors *trust in regulation and research correlates with sense of justice: those who feel being treated unjustly, do not trust regulation and research 17

18. How to increase trust? Commitment action Trust in actors * round table 18

19. Some preliminary results: Sense of justice… * professional fishers * recreational fishermen along the rivers Tornionjoki and Simojoki …feel being treated unjustly 19

20. How to increase sense of justice? Management action Sense of justice * professional fishermen, semi-professionals and household fishermen: cheese-slicer * semi-professionals: focusing on obligatory reared salmon * recreational fishers: setting quotas 20

21. Commitment Cultural and historical background of fishermen Belief in SAP Trust Sense of justice Catch Commitment action Knowledge action Economic intrest Salmon abundance Management action 21

22. Conclusion: How to get the best result in commitment, according to our modeling? * Trying to increase commitment by creating a round table working group * Intensifying the use of media and fishing licenses in informing * Restricting fishing equally from each group 22

23. Why Bayesian modeling? * makes it possible to examine the strength of causal relationships, and to evaluate which factors are most important to maintain or create commitment * the network allows to examine hypothetical situations, and to predict changes in commitment when affecting any of the factors within the network 23

24. Why Bayesian modeling? * gives us quantitative data to express the strength of fishermen’s commitment and the effect of this on catch * makes it possible to link the information flow of the social network to the biological network, and via this to deduce the effects of the activities of the fishermen on the salmon stocks 24

25. Function of the model: A tool of planning and decision making in the restoration process and fisheries management in general 25