1. Super-Regional Modeling Testbed Estuarine Hypoxia Team Carl Friedrichs (VIMS) – Team Leader Federal partners David Green (NOAA-NWS) – Transition to operations at NWS Lyon Lanerole (NOAA-CSDL) – Transition to operations at CSDL; CBOFS2 Lewis Linker (EPA), Carl Cerco (USACE) – Transition to operations at EPA; CH3D, CE-ICM Doug Wilson (NOAA-NCBO) – Integration w/observing systems at NCBO/IOOS Non-federal partners Marjorie Friedrichs (VIMS) – Metric development and model skill assessment Ming Li (UMCES) – ROMS hydrodynamics in CB Wen Long, Raleigh Hood (UMCES) – ChesROMS with NPZD water quality model Scott Peckham (UC-Boulder) – Running multiple ROMS models on a single HPC cluster Malcolm Scully (ODU) – ChesROMS with 1 term oxygen respiration model Kevin Sellner (CRC) – Academic-agency liason; facilitator for model comparison Jian Shen (VIMS) – SELFE, FVCOM, EFDC models in CB John Wilkin, Julia Levin (Rutgers) – ROMS-Espresso + 7 other MAB hydrodynamic models

2. Today’s Workshop Goals Identification of Next Set of Model Runs Alternate wind forcing – NAM model winds vs. NARR hindcast/blended observations Modified fresh water input – Should watersheds/groundwater be improved? Modified vertical resolution – Does ROMS sigma grid under-resolve stratification? Alternate ocean boundary – Climatology vs. MAB model output Initial round of hypoxia formulations Further Refining Key Variables and Metrics for Skill Assessment Salinity Density stratification Velocity(?) Comparison time window Local oxygen values Hypoxic volume Target diagram (combines bias and RMS error) Other skill scores? (e.g., Brier Score, Wilmott Score)

3. Additional Motivation:

4. From text of Chesapeake Bay Executive Order Action Plan for FY2011: Action Item WQ 10.3: “NOAA will support research to implement a coupled Regional Ocean Modeling System – Water Quality hydrodynamic model for use in ecological forecasting.” Action Item SS 4.3: “EPA will establish a Chesapeake Bay Analysis and Synthesis Center to facilitate the formation of synthesis teams of scientists and managers to focus on addressing key environmental issues.” Action Item SS 5.3: “EPA will make the underlying computer code for all its Bay TMDL related models and tools readily accessible to partners and stakeholders through the Chesapeake Community Modeling Program website.” Action Item SS 13.1: “Initiate the design and development of the Chesapeake Bay Data Enterprise system to share scientific data between partners.”

5. Refresh/Updates on Hydrodynamic Modeling Hydrodynamic Model Output Delivered So Far (w/2 iterations): CH3D (P. Wang, L. Linker, C. Cerco; EPA/USACE CBP) ChesROMS (W. Long, R. Hood; UMCES) CBOFS2 (L. Lanerolle, R. Patchen; NOAA-CSDL) UMCES ROMS (Y. Li, M. Li; UMCES) EFDC (J. Shen, B. Hong; VIMS) Other CB Hydrodynamic Models Likely to be Added: EFDC (J. Shen, B. Hong; VIMS) CHIMP (S. Peckham; UC-Boulder)

6. EPA/USACE CBP CH3D Model (Slide courtesy Ping Wang, CBPO) 57000 grid points z-grid,  z = 5 ft

7. CH3D has been “retired” from CBP Final run = 1985 – 2005. It is not practical to rerun the final 57K grid CH3D model with alternate forcing. EPA CBP plans next “release” of updated hydrodynamic model by 2017. Successor hydrodynamic model has not been chosen, although USACE favors adding third dimension to an existing finite element inundation model. Timing is ideal for Estuarine Hypoxia Team to provide guidance to CBP concerning favorable attributes of CB models. CCMP is planning a June 2011 workshop to synthesize understanding of favorable CB model properties, including results through June of this SURA project. (Slide courtesy Rich Batiuk) EPA/USACE CE-QUAL-ICM forced by CH3D and detailed watershed inputs Estuarine oxygen concentration